Scott Alexander praises Polymarket's election success but argues their Trump odds were mispriced, explaining why Trump's win doesn't significantly validate their numbers over other forecasters. Longer summary

Scott Alexander congratulates Polymarket for their success during the recent election, but argues that their Trump shares were mispriced by about ten cents. He uses Bayes' Theorem to explain why Trump's victory doesn't significantly vindicate Polymarket's numbers. Scott compares the situation to non-money forecasters like Metaculus versus real-money markets like Polymarket, explaining why he initially trusted the former more. He discusses the impact of a large bettor named Theo on Polymarket's odds and addresses several objections to his argument. Scott concludes that while prediction markets are valuable, they can sometimes fail and require critical thinking. Shorter summary

The post examines the spectacle of US elections, analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, and discusses various election-related forecasts and their implications. Longer summary

This post discusses the intense atmosphere surrounding Election Day in the United States, comparing it to historical spectacles and highlighting the emotional and psychological impact on the population. It then delves into prediction markets and forecasting, particularly focusing on recent events in Polymarket where a large bet by a single individual caused significant market movements. The post also covers legal developments regarding prediction markets, discusses various election-related predictions, and concludes with a poetic reflection on Election Day. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses the political battle over California's AI safety bill SB 1047, its veto by Governor Newsom, and the implications for future AI regulation efforts. Longer summary

This post recounts the story behind SB 1047, a California bill aimed at regulating AI safety that was passed by the legislature but vetoed by Governor Newsom. Scott discusses the bill's supporters and opponents, the political maneuvering involved, and the aftermath of the veto. He analyzes the reasons for the veto, suggesting it was influenced by Silicon Valley donors and interests. The post also explores potential future strategies for AI regulation advocates, including possible alliances with left-wing groups. Scott concludes with reasons for optimism despite the setback, noting growing public support for AI regulation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander opens voting for the 2024 Book Review Contest, explaining the approval voting system and listing the finalists. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the voting process for the 2024 Book Review Contest. He explains that this year they are using approval voting, where voters can select multiple favorites, and the entry with the most votes wins. Scott provides a link to the voting form, lists the 14 finalist book reviews, and mentions a prediction market for the contest outcome. He advises voters not to check the prediction market until after voting. Shorter summary

Scott examines a new AI forecaster, discusses Polymarket's success, and reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting. Longer summary

This post discusses recent developments in AI forecasting and prediction markets. It starts by examining FiveThirtyNine, a new AI forecaster claiming to be superintelligent, but finds its performance questionable. The post then briefly mentions r/MarkMyWords, a subreddit for bold predictions. It goes on to discuss Polymarket's recent success, particularly in betting on the 2024 US presidential election. The post concludes with a roundup of interesting prediction markets and forecasting-related news, including political betting controversies in the UK and updates on the Kalshi vs. CFTC legal battle. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines prediction markets suggesting that replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee could significantly improve the party's chances in the 2024 election. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets to assess whether replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee would improve the party's chances in the 2024 election. He finds that replacing Biden with Kamala Harris would be neutral to slightly positive, while replacing him with Gavin Newsom or a generic Democrat could increase their odds of winning by 10-15 percentage points. Scott discusses potential objections to these findings, examines his own previous skepticism about Biden's cognitive decline, and reflects on the implications for Democratic party leadership and decision-making. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including regulatory changes, platform pivots, and debates about the field's future. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting. He discusses the CFTC's move to further restrict prediction markets, Manifold Markets' pivot to a sweepstakes model, a superforecasting report on COVID-19 origins, and debates about the future and value of forecasting. The post also covers various prediction market probabilities on current events and links to other forecasting news. Shorter summary

The post explores recent advances in AI forecasting, discusses the concept of 'rationality engines', reviews a study on AI risk predictions, and provides updates on various prediction markets. Longer summary

This post discusses recent developments in AI-powered forecasting and prediction markets. It covers two academic teams' work on AI forecasting systems, comparing their performance to human forecasters. The post then discusses the potential for developing 'rationality engines' that can answer non-forecasting questions. It also reviews a study on superforecasters' predictions about AI risk, and provides updates on various prediction markets including political events, cryptocurrency, and global conflicts. The post concludes with short links to related articles and developments in the field of forecasting. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the results of his 2023 forecasting contest, comparing various prediction methods and individual forecasters. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the results of his 2023 annual forecasting contest, where participants predicted 50 questions about the upcoming year. He discusses the winners in both 'Blind Mode' (relying on personal knowledge) and 'Full Mode' (using aggregation algorithms). The post analyzes the performance of various forecasting methods, including individual forecasters, prediction markets, superforecasters, and aggregation techniques. Scott concludes that Metaculus, a forecasting platform, outperformed other methods, though some individual forecasters showed exceptional skill. He also examines which 2023 events were most surprising to forecasters and shares his main takeaways from the contest. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores recent advancements in AI-powered prediction markets, including bot-based systems, AI forecasters, and their potential impact on future predictions and decision-making. Longer summary

This post discusses recent developments in prediction markets and AI forecasting. It covers Manifold's bot-based prediction markets, FutureSearch's AI forecasting system, Vitalik Buterin's thoughts on AI and crypto in prediction markets, a Manifold promotional event called 'Bet On Love', and various current market predictions on topics like AI capabilities and political events. The post also includes short links to related articles and forecasting resources. Shorter summary

The post examines the performance of prediction markets in elections, current political forecasts, and various other prediction markets, while also discussing the challenges and potential of forecasting. Longer summary

This post discusses several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. It starts by examining a claim that prediction markets have an 'election problem', showing that real-money markets performed poorly in recent elections. The author then analyzes current polls and prediction markets for the 2024 US presidential election, noting discrepancies between different platforms. The post also explores a forecasting experiment on AI futures, and reviews several other prediction markets on current events. Finally, it includes short links to other forecasting-related news and reflections. Shorter summary

The post discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including challenges in market design, updates to forecasting platforms, and current market predictions on various topics. Longer summary

This post covers several topics in prediction markets and forecasting. It starts by discussing the challenges of designing prediction markets for 'why' questions, using the OpenAI situation as an example. It then reviews the progress of Manifold's dating site, Manifold.love, after one month. The post also covers Metaculus' recent platform updates, including new scoring systems and leaderboards. Finally, it analyzes various current prediction markets, including geopolitical events, elections, and the TIME Person of the Year. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reports on the Manifest prediction market conference, new developments in the field, and recent market activity on current events. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the recent Manifest conference for prediction market enthusiasts, highlighting key issues such as regulatory challenges, potential applications in hiring, and the use of prediction markets in journalism. He also covers the launch of Manifold.love, a prediction market-based dating site, and analyzes recent prediction market activity on topics like the Gaza hospital explosion and various political events. The post concludes with updates on prediction market developments and related initiatives. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander opens voting for the 2023 Book Review Contest, detailing the ranked choice voting process and listing the finalists. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the voting process for the 2023 Book Review Contest, explaining that it will use ranked choice voting where voters select their top three favorites. He provides a link to the voting form, lists the 16 finalists, and mentions a prediction market for the contest outcome. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, including the LK-99 superconductor hype, a forecasting tournament, and new prediction market concepts. Longer summary

This post discusses several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. It begins with an analysis of the LK-99 superconductor prediction markets, suggesting they were overly optimistic due to media hype rather than expert opinion. The author then discusses the Salem/CSPI prediction market tournament, highlighting how the top performers used various strategies beyond just predictive accuracy. The post introduces the concept of prediction portfolios, which allow betting on broader trends rather than specific outcomes. It also mentions a new prediction market for flight delays called Wingman.WTF. Finally, the post reviews current political prediction markets and other forecasting-related news. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including regulatory issues, new platforms, and current market probabilities on various topics. Longer summary

This post covers several topics in the world of forecasting and prediction markets. It starts with an update on Kalshi's request to the CFTC for permission to create prediction markets about upcoming elections, discussing the public comments received. The post then announces the Manifest 2023 conference on forecasting and prediction markets. It discusses prediction markets related to a potential room temperature superconductor discovery, and how these markets are being used to track the developing story. The post also covers PredictIt's legal battle with the CFTC, the use of forecasting technology in finance, new forecasting platforms like Fatebook and The Base Rate Times, and several current prediction market probabilities on various topics. It concludes with some short notes on recent developments in the forecasting world. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent events in prediction markets, including a costly prank on Manifold, debt ceiling forecasts, a study on long-term predictions, and a high-profile hyperinflation bet. Longer summary

This post covers several topics in the world of prediction markets and forecasting. It begins with the story of a Manifold user who lost $29,000 in a prank market, leading to changes in Manifold's policies. It then discusses recent predictions about the US debt ceiling, a study on long-term forecasting accuracy, and a high-profile bet about hyperinflation between Balaji Srinivasan and James Medlock. The post ends with updates on other prediction markets, including ones about open-source AI and the ACX book review contest. Shorter summary

The post explores AI forecasting capabilities, compares prediction market performances, and provides updates on various ongoing predictions in technology and politics. Longer summary

This post discusses recent developments in AI forecasting and prediction markets. It covers a study testing GPT-2's ability to predict past events, reports on Metaculus' accuracy compared to low-information priors and Manifold Markets, and updates on various prediction markets including those related to AI development, abortion medication, and Elon Musk's role at Twitter. The author also mentions new features in prediction platforms and research on forecasting methodologies. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces a $20,000 grants round for forecasting projects using impact certificates, explaining the process for creators and investors. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants, a $20,000 grants round for forecasting projects using impact certificates. The post explains how creators can propose projects on Manifund, how accredited investors can participate, and how the funding will work. It also covers the role of Manifold Markets, the legal and financial aspects, and addresses various questions about eligibility, funding sources, and potential risks. The initiative aims to test impact markets as a charitable funding mechanism while supporting forecasting-related projects. Shorter summary

Scott explores various technological and market-based approaches to dating and relationships, including prediction markets, matching sites, and cryptocurrency concepts. Longer summary

This post discusses various algorithmic and financial approaches to romance, focusing on prediction markets and other creative solutions. Scott examines Aella's date recommendation market, matching checkbox sites, the Luna cryptocurrency dating site concept, and Peter Thiel's insights on social startups. He also reviews some current prediction markets related to dating and relationships. The post concludes with short links about an arranged marriage project and AI chatbot romance. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including Metaculus' milestone, PredictIt's legal issues, and various prediction market topics. Longer summary

This Mantic Monday post covers several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. Scott discusses Metaculus reaching its one millionth prediction, PredictIt's legal battle with the CFTC, former Russian President Medvedev's outlandish 2023 predictions, conspiracy theory prediction markets, Scott's own 2022 prediction calibration results, updates on 'scandal markets', and highlights from various current prediction markets. He also shares some thoughts on the challenges and potential pitfalls of certain types of prediction markets. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes results from a 2022 prediction contest, discussing top performers and methods for improving forecast accuracy. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the results of a 2022 prediction contest where 508 participants assigned probabilities to 71 yes-or-no questions about future events. The post discusses the performance of individual forecasters, aggregation methods, and prediction markets. It highlights the success of superforecasters, the wisdom of crowds, and prediction markets. The article also announces winners, discusses demographic factors in forecasting ability, and introduces a new contest for 2023, emphasizing the potential for improving forecasting accuracy through various methods. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces Stage 2 of the 2023 Prediction Contest, encouraging participants to use any resources to make accurate predictions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces Stage 2 ('Full Mode') of the 2023 Prediction Contest, following the closure of Stage 1 ('Blind Mode'). In this stage, participants are encouraged to use any resources available to make accurate predictions, including personal research, prediction markets, forecasting tournaments, and the 3295 blind mode answers from Stage 1. Scott provides suggestions on how to use these resources and emphasizes that there's no such thing as cheating, except for time travel or harming competitors. He also mentions that the form will ask for a brief description of the strategy used. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander uses a satirical FAQ about stores to illustrate common objections to new institutions, then explains the purpose and offers heuristics for evaluating such criticisms. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a satirical FAQ about buying things from stores, addressing various hypothetical concerns and objections. The post humorously explores common criticisms of new institutions by applying them to the familiar concept of stores. In the final section, Scott explains the purpose of this satire, drawing parallels to similar objections raised against prediction markets and self-service gas stations. He then offers heuristics for evaluating such criticisms and emphasizes the importance of practical implementation over theoretical objections. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a comprehensive FAQ on prediction markets, arguing for their accuracy, canonicity, and potential to solve the 'crisis of trust' in society. Longer summary

This post is a comprehensive FAQ about prediction markets, explaining what they are, why they are believed to be accurate and canonical, addressing common objections, and describing clever uses for them. Scott Alexander presents prediction markets as a potential solution to the 'crisis of trust' in modern society, arguing that they can provide unbiased, accurate predictions on a wide range of issues. The post also covers the current status of prediction markets and suggests ways people can help promote them. Shorter summary