Scott Alexander analyzes the COVID-19 pandemic's progress, predicts future waves, and speculates on its long-term impact and transition to an endemic disease.
Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses the current state and future predictions for the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. He outlines the past waves of infections, predicts future waves due to new virus strains, analyzes vaccine efficacy against these strains, and speculates on how the pandemic might eventually transition to an endemic seasonal illness like the flu. He also touches on potential long-term societal changes and makes several specific predictions about future developments.
Shorter summary