Scott Alexander evaluates his 2020 predictions, finding he was generally overconfident, and discusses the implications for his prediction-making process.
Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews his predictions for 2020, comparing them to actual outcomes. He analyzes his performance in different confidence levels, noting that he was consistently overconfident this year, particularly in the 50% and 95% categories. Scott attributes some of his errors to unexpected events like the prolonged COVID lockdown and the NYT situation. He reflects on whether this overconfidence in an unusually eventful year might balance out his slight underconfidence in more normal years. The post concludes with plans for future prediction exercises and a link to his ongoing prediction log.
Shorter summary