Scott Alexander shares his annual predictions for 2021, covering various topics from politics to personal life, with assigned probabilities for each prediction. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents his annual predictions for the upcoming year, covering a wide range of topics including US politics, world events, economics, technology, COVID-19, community matters, personal life, work-related issues, and his blog. The post includes over 100 predictions with percentage probabilities assigned to each. Scott emphasizes that the purpose of these predictions is to calibrate his ability to assess his own knowledge and certainty, rather than to demonstrate expertise on the topics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander completes his medical residency and announces his return to San Francisco, reflecting on his experiences and his enduring connection to the rationalist community there. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on completing his four-year medical residency in Michigan. He expresses gratitude for his hospital, colleagues, and the experiences he gained. Despite the positive aspects of his time there, he emphasizes that his true connection lies with the rationalist community in the San Francisco Bay Area. Scott reveals that he has accepted a psychiatrist position in San Francisco and is moving back to what he considers the 'greatest metropolitan area in the world'. He looks forward to reuniting with his intellectual community, which he views as his 'karass' - a group brought together for a higher purpose. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines studies linking parental age to psychiatric disorders in children, revealing that the father's age at first child, not at conception, is the key factor. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a study in JAMA Psychiatry about the prevalence of psychiatric disorders in relation to parental age. Initially, it seemed that children of young mothers and old fathers were at higher risk. The study proposed that older fathers accumulate more mutations, leading to higher risk of disorders in their children. However, a clever follow-up study found that the risk is more related to how old the father was when he had his first child, rather than the father's age at conception. This suggests that men with mental health issues or risk factors may take longer to find partners and have children, rather than the age itself being the cause. Scott concludes that this finding is sad on a societal level but personally liberating, as he feels less guilty about potentially having children later in life. Shorter summary