Scott Alexander announces the winners of ACX Grants 2024, covering a diverse range of projects from medical research to policy advocacy. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the results of the ACX Grants 2024, detailing the winners and their projects. The grants cover a wide range of areas including medical research, technology development, policy advocacy, and scientific studies. Scott explains the selection process, acknowledges contributors, and mentions future plans for the grants program. He also discusses how Manifund will handle payments and create an impact market for unfunded projects. Shorter summary

Scott reviews two papers on honest AI: one on manipulating AI honesty vectors, another on detecting AI lies through unrelated questions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses two recent papers on creating honest AI and detecting AI lies. The first paper by Hendrycks et al. introduces 'representation engineering', a method to identify and manipulate vectors in AI models representing concepts like honesty, morality, and power-seeking. This allows for lie detection and potentially controlling AI behavior. The second paper by Brauner et al. presents a technique to detect lies in black-box AI systems by asking seemingly unrelated questions. Scott explores the implications of these methods for AI safety and scam detection, noting their current usefulness but potential limitations against future superintelligent AI. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander grades his 2018 predictions for 2023 and makes new predictions for 2028, with a strong focus on AI developments. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews his predictions from 2018 for 2023, grading himself on accuracy across various domains including AI, world affairs, US culture and politics, economics, science/technology, and existential risks. He then offers new predictions for 2028, focusing heavily on AI developments and their potential impacts on society, economics, and politics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides updates on the ACX Grants project, summarizing the progress of grantees and their ongoing needs. Longer summary

This post provides updates on the ACX Grants project, where Scott Alexander awarded grants to various individuals and organizations for innovative projects. The post summarizes the progress of each grantee, their self-assessed performance on a scale of 1-10, and any additional help or funding they are seeking. The projects range from scientific research and technology development to policy advocacy and social initiatives. Scott also reflects on lessons learned from the grant program and announces the creation of an ACX Grantees Discord for grantees to connect with each other. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander investigates the reliability of dietary supplements, finding that while issues exist, most are not completely fake as some media reports claim. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the trustworthiness of dietary supplements, debunking widespread claims that most are completely fake. He analyzes studies, consumer lab reports, and industry insider accounts to conclude that while there are issues in the supplement industry, outright fraud is rare, especially for common vitamins and minerals. More complex botanicals and trendy supplements may have more variability, but complete absence of active ingredients is uncommon. Scott suggests consumers should be discerning, especially with lesser-known products, but notes that for many supplements, precise dosing may not be critical. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares the second half of ACX Grants, presenting 59 diverse project proposals seeking funding or support. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents the second half of ACX Grants, a list of projects seeking funding or support that he couldn't fully fund himself. The post includes 59 diverse project proposals (numbered 67-125) covering topics such as medical research, technology development, social initiatives, and scientific studies. Each proposal includes a brief description of the project, its goals, and contact information for those interested in supporting or collaborating. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents brief descriptions of 66 diverse projects seeking funding or support as part of the ACX Grants program. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the closing part of ACX Grants, presenting brief descriptions of projects that he couldn't fully fund himself. He invites readers to consider donating money, time, or other resources to these projects. The post includes 66 diverse project proposals, ranging from scientific research to social initiatives, each with a short description and contact information for interested parties. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores how to navigate bias in media and expert opinions through understanding the unwritten rules of misrepresentation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the concept of 'bounded distrust' in media and expert opinions. He argues that while many news sources and experts are biased, there are unwritten rules about how far they will go in misrepresenting facts. Understanding these rules allows people to extract useful information even from biased sources. He uses examples from FOX News, Washington Post, and scientific research to illustrate how people can navigate bias and misinformation. The post concludes by acknowledging that this skill of discerning truth from biased sources is not universal, leading to a divide between 'savvy' and 'clueless' people in their trust of institutions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the threat of ancient diseases from thawing permafrost, arguing that recent human plagues pose a greater risk than prehistoric ones. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the potential threat of ancient diseases reemerging from thawing permafrost due to climate change. He argues that diseases from millions of years ago are unlikely to pose a significant threat to humans, as they would not be adapted to human biology. However, he expresses more concern about recent human plagues like the 1918 Spanish flu or smallpox potentially coming back. Scott explains that while there's no evidence of live smallpox virus found on artifacts or corpses, the possibility of viruses surviving in permafrost can't be ruled out entirely. He concludes that the biggest risk might come from scientists investigating these potential threats rather than natural exposure. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent research unifying predictive coding in the brain with backpropagation in machine learning, exploring its implications for AI and neuroscience. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a recent paper and Less Wrong post that unify predictive coding, a theory of how the brain works, with backpropagation, an algorithm used in machine learning. The post explains the significance of this unification, which shows that predictive coding can approximate backpropagation without needing backwards information transfer in neurons. Scott explores the implications of this research, including the potential fusion of AI and neuroscience into a single mathematical field and possibilities for neuromorphic computing hardware. Shorter summary

Scott examines how scientific research has challenged traditional bodybuilding wisdom about rest periods, questioning the reliability of practical wisdom ('metis') compared to academic studies. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the relationship between bodybuilding lore and scientific research, using an article by fitness researcher Menno Henselmans as a starting point. The post examines the traditional bodybuilding wisdom about short rest periods between sets, which was believed to be optimal for muscle growth. Scott then explores how recent scientific studies have contradicted this belief, showing that longer rest periods can be more effective. He uses this example to reflect on the concept of 'metis' (practical wisdom) in bodybuilding communities and its limitations when compared to academic scientific research. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critically examines a new theory on antidepressant mechanisms, expressing skepticism while acknowledging its potential significance if proven true. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews a recent study proposing a new theory for how antidepressants work, which suggests they bind directly to TrkB receptors rather than acting through serotonin. He explains the study's findings and their potential implications, but expresses skepticism about the theory. Scott outlines several reasons why he finds the new theory unconvincing, including existing evidence supporting the serotonin hypothesis, issues with the study's claims about drug accumulation, and expert opinions on the difficulties of TrkB research. He concludes by stating he will stick with the conventional theory for now, while remaining open to future developments. Shorter summary

Scott shares reader responses to his IRB experience, ranging from similar frustrations to defenses of the system, and discusses concerns about increasing bureaucracy in research. Longer summary

This post highlights responses to Scott's previous article about his frustrating experience with the Institutional Review Board (IRB) process. Many readers shared similar stories of bureaucratic hurdles and absurd requirements they faced when trying to conduct research. Some commenters offered advice on how to navigate the system more effectively or suggested that experiences may vary depending on the institution. Others defended the importance of IRBs in preventing unethical research, citing historical examples like the Tuskegee Syphilis Experiment. Scott acknowledges some fair criticisms but maintains that IRBs have become overly burdensome for low-risk studies. He expresses concern about new NIH policies that may further increase bureaucratic requirements for basic science research. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines why early psychedelic researchers often became eccentric, proposing that psychedelics might permanently increase openness to unusual ideas. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the phenomenon of early psychedelic researchers becoming notably eccentric or 'weird' after their experiments. He presents brief biographies of several prominent researchers, including Timothy Leary, Richard Alpert, John Lilly, and Kary Mullis, highlighting their transition from respected scientists to advocates of unconventional ideas. The post then discusses potential explanations for this trend, including self-selection bias, the impact of psychedelic experiences, and the possibility that psychedelics might directly alter personality traits like Openness to Experience. Scott concludes by suggesting that the early psychedelicists might serve as a natural experiment, providing unique data on the long-term effects of psychedelic use that are difficult to study in controlled settings. Shorter summary

The post explores the complex relationship between smoking and schizophrenia, critiquing conflicting studies and cautioning against hasty conclusions about nicotine's effects on schizophrenia risk. Longer summary

This post examines the relationship between smoking and schizophrenia. It starts by noting the high prevalence of smoking among schizophrenics and discusses various theories for this, including the self-medication hypothesis. The author then analyzes two conflicting studies on whether smoking causes or prevents schizophrenia. One study suggests smoking increases risk, while another, which controls for confounders, indicates smoking may decrease risk. The post criticizes how the first study, despite being newer, ignores the contradictory findings of the second study. The author expresses frustration with this scientific approach and cautions against pushing people at risk of schizophrenia away from nicotine without stronger evidence. The post ends by noting that smoking definitely decreases Parkinson's Disease risk and reiterating that tobacco smoking is still harmful overall. Shorter summary

Scott shares a diverse collection of interesting links and news items from September 2014, covering topics from music genres to scientific research. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from September 2014. Scott covers a wide range of topics, including music genres, ISIS, historical recordings, effective altruism, climate change, psychology research, government systems, media criticism, North Korea, Google Maps oddities, and various scientific and cultural curiosities. The tone is informative and sometimes humorous, providing brief commentary on each item. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses the lack of scientific research on nerds, exploring potential explanations for their distinct traits, including the possible role of testosterone. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the lack of scientific study on nerds, despite their distinct characteristics. He lists nine common traits associated with nerds and questions why these seemingly unrelated traits often appear together. The post considers various explanations, including social factors and biological determinism, with a focus on the potential role of testosterone. Scott examines research linking low testosterone to several nerdy traits in men, but also acknowledges conflicting evidence. He concludes by noting the complexity of sex hormones and their effects, mentioning observations about transgender individuals, and questioning whether female nerds form a distinct cluster like male nerds do. Shorter summary

Scott shares a diverse collection of interesting links and brief commentary on topics ranging from unusual video games to genetic research and political oddities. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and brief commentary on various topics. It covers a range of subjects including unusual video games, disease threat research, medical concerns about Tylenol use during pregnancy, questionable online dating sites, car-free cities, the relationship between intelligence and longevity, augmented reality games, historical enigmas, genetic editing techniques, political oddities, social mobility research, and unusual election tactics. The tone is informative and sometimes humorous, with Scott providing his thoughts and observations on each item. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critically examines the concept of self-conditioning, expressing skepticism while considering potential benefits and deciding to experiment with the technique. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the concept of self-conditioning, specifically the idea of rewarding oneself to reinforce desired behaviors. He initially expresses skepticism, arguing that such methods are unlikely to work due to the brain's ability to predict rewards and the potential for overjustification. He then explores a modified version involving 'victory gestures' instead of tangible rewards. While still skeptical, Scott acknowledges the potential benefits of immediate reinforcement and the intrinsic nature of the reward. He examines evolutionary arguments against self-reinforcement and discusses the limited available research on 'self-consequation'. Despite his doubts, Scott concludes that he will try the technique due to its low cost and potential high value, while recognizing the need for more research in this area. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes misleading media coverage of 'The High Quality Research Act', clarifying its actual content and arguing for a more nuanced debate on NSF funding priorities. Longer summary

Scott Alexander criticizes the media coverage of a new draft bill called 'The High Quality Research Act'. He points out that many news sources have misrepresented the bill's content, falsely claiming it would ban peer review or destroy the concept of facts. Scott clarifies that the bill actually aims to change the grant funding review process and prevent duplicate funding applications. He acknowledges legitimate concerns about the bill potentially restricting funding to 'practical' research, but argues that the debate should focus on whether the current NSF grant criteria need improvement, rather than on exaggerated claims about the bill's effects. Shorter summary