Scott Alexander estimates the frequency of significant scientific failures to evaluate the plausibility of climate change skepticism.
Longer summary
Scott Alexander explores the frequency of scientific failures to assess the likelihood of climate change skepticism being correct. He defines criteria for significant scientific failures and identifies three clear examples: Lysenkoism, Freudian psychoanalysis, and behaviorism in psychology. After estimating the total number of possible scientific paradigms, he calculates a failure rate of about 1.2-3.6%. He concludes that this low failure rate doesn't provide much support for climate change skepticism, as it's similar to the proportion of papers that don't support anthropogenic climate change.
Shorter summary