Scott Alexander's April 2026 links roundup covers diverse topics including Venn diagram complexity, flag desecration laws, AI developments, political analysis, scientific studies, and various cultural curiosities. Longer summary

This monthly links post compiles interesting articles, studies, and observations from across the internet in April 2026. Major themes include AI progress and policy (including discussions of AI alignment, capabilities, and regulation), political developments (Trump administration actions, election analysis), scientific findings (from evolutionary psychology to medical treatments), and various cultural oddities. Scott provides brief commentary on each link while noting that he hasn't independently verified all claims and that commenters typically find errors in a few links per post. Shorter summary

Scott argues that dismissing AI as 'just a next-token predictor' is like dismissing humans as 'just reproduction machines' - both confuse the optimization process that shaped an entity with how that entity actually thinks. Longer summary

Scott argues that dismissing AI as 'just a next-token predictor' confuses levels of optimization. He draws an analogy to humans: just as humans were shaped by evolution optimizing for reproduction but don't think about sex when doing math, AIs were shaped by next-token prediction but don't simply predict tokens when thinking. Scott explains that human brains use predictive coding (predicting next sense-data) to build world-models, while AIs use next-token prediction to build their own world-models. Both processes create complex internal representations - like helical manifolds in 6D space for AIs, or toroidal attractors in human hippocampi - that operate far above the level of simple prediction. The post concludes that both humans and AIs perform 'real thought' using structures created by their respective optimization processes. Shorter summary

Scott shares humorous anecdotes about the daily chaos of raising toddler twins, from emergency police visits triggered by screaming over the wrong version of a song, to elaborate bedtime battles and the children's obsession with identifying vehicles and animals. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares entertaining stories about parenting his toddler twins, Kai and Lyra, describing life with them as a 'permanent emergency'. The post opens with police arriving after a 911 call likely triggered by screaming over the wrong version of 'Mister Golden Sun'. Scott describes how the children have developed their own names for songs, their obsession with identifying animals and vehicles (which he theorizes relates to hunter-gatherer instincts), and their different personalities - Kai being chaotic and disruptive while Lyra is calm and cooperative. He details the elaborate bedtime ritual with Kai, including various stalling tactics like demanding food and fake-drinking milk. The post includes several photos of the twins and maintains a humorous, self-deprecating tone throughout while exploring how toddler behavior might reflect evolutionary programming. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines recent studies on the Fraternal Birth Order Effect, finding evidence for a broader sibling birth order effect on homosexuality, though its exact nature and mechanism remain debated. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews recent studies on the Fraternal Birth Order Effect (FBOE), which suggests that men with more older brothers are more likely to be gay. He discusses three key studies: Frisch and Hviid's large-scale Danish study that found no clear FBOE, Vilsmeier et al.'s meta-analysis that questioned the statistical validity of previous FBOE claims, and Ablaza et al.'s extensive Dutch study that found a significant effect of older siblings (both brothers and sisters) on homosexuality. Scott concludes that while the FBOE hypothesis has been forced to evolve, the core idea that more older siblings increases the likelihood of homosexuality seems to stand, though the biological mechanism remains uncertain. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques Emil Kirkegaard's evolutionary definition of mental illness, arguing for separate terms to distinguish between social dysfunction and evolutionary fitness concepts. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Emil Kirkegaard's proposal for defining mental illness based on evolutionary fitness. Scott argues that while Kirkegaard's definition may be useful in evolutionary psychology, it doesn't align with practical needs in mental health care and social policy. He proposes keeping two separate concepts: one based on social dysfunction (Scott's definition) and another based on evolutionary fitness (Kirkegaard's definition). Scott provides several examples to illustrate the differences and limitations of Kirkegaard's approach, including ADHD, alcoholism, and ephebophilia. He concludes that Kirkegaard should coin a new term for his concept, such as 'genetic maladaptation', while preserving the term 'mental disorder' for its more common usage. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander addresses comments on his fetish and AI post, defending his comparison of gender debates to addiction and discussing various theories on fetish formation and their implications for AI. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his post about fetishes and AI, addressing criticisms of his introductory paragraph comparing gender debates to opioid addiction, discussing alternative theories of fetish formation, and highlighting interesting comments on personal fetish experiences and implications for AI development. He defends his stance on the addictive nature of gender debates, argues for the use of puberty blockers, and explores various theories on fetish development and their potential relevance to AI alignment and development. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander suggests that studying human fetishes could provide insights into AI alignment challenges, particularly regarding generalization and interpretability. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the idea that fetish research might help understand AI alignment. He draws parallels between evolution's 'alignment' of humans towards reproduction and our attempts to align AI with human values. The post discusses how fetishes represent failures in evolution's alignment strategy, similar to potential AI alignment failures. Scott suggests that studying how humans develop fetishes could provide insights into how AIs might misgeneralize or misalign from intended goals. He proposes several speculative explanations for common fetishes and discusses how these might relate to AI alignment challenges, particularly in terms of generalization and interpretability problems. Shorter summary

Scott critiques evolutionary explanations for suitor-parent disagreements in mate choice, proposing that suitors use innate instincts while parents rely on reasoning, leading to different preferences. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques Dynomight's theories on why suitors and parents disagree about mate choice. He argues that evolutionary psychology explanations are insufficient, proposing instead that suitors rely on innate, finely-tuned instincts for mate selection, while parents use less-evolved human reasoning. This difference in decision-making processes leads to systematically different preferences. Scott also explores the complexity of human drives related to reproduction, questioning whether they exist at different cognitive 'levels' (reptilian, mammalian, human) and how they interact. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores expert and reader comments on his post about motivated reasoning and reinforcement learning, discussing brain function, threat detection, and the implementation of complex behaviors. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses comments on his post about motivated reasoning and reinforcement learning. The post covers expert opinions on brain function and reinforcement learning, arguments about long-term rewards of threat detection, discussions on practical reasons for motivated reasoning, and miscellaneous thoughts on the topic. Key points include debates on how the brain processes information, the role of Bayesian reasoning, and the challenges of implementing complex behaviors through genetic encoding. Scott also reflects on his own experiences and the limitations of reinforcement learning models in explaining human behavior. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes motivated reasoning as misapplied reinforcement learning, explaining how it might arise from the brain's mixture of reinforceable and non-reinforceable architectures. Longer summary

Scott explores the concept of motivated reasoning as misapplied reinforcement learning in the brain. He contrasts behavioral brain regions that benefit from hedonic reinforcement learning with epistemic regions where such learning would be detrimental. The post discusses how this distinction might explain phenomena like 'ugh fields' and motivated reasoning, especially in novel situations like taxes or politics where brain networks might be placed on a mix of reinforceable and non-reinforceable architectures. Scott suggests this model could explain why people often confuse what is true with what they want to be true. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines a genetic study distinguishing cognitive and non-cognitive skills in educational attainment, revealing unexpected correlations with mental health conditions. Longer summary

This post discusses a genetic study on educational attainment, focusing on the distinction between cognitive and non-cognitive skills that contribute to it. The study, by Demange et al, uses a method called 'GWAS-by-subtraction' to isolate genes associated with non-cognitive skills from those linked to intelligence. Scott Alexander analyzes the results, which show correlations between these genetic factors and various traits, personality factors, and mental health conditions. He highlights surprising findings, particularly the positive correlation between schizophrenia genes and non-cognitive skills beneficial for educational attainment, contrary to previous beliefs about schizophrenia genes being purely detrimental. Shorter summary

The review critically examines and then steelmans Robert Wright's claims about meditation and enlightenment in 'Why Buddhism Is True', concluding with personal reflections on meditation's effects. Longer summary

This review of Robert Wright's 'Why Buddhism Is True' explores the book's central claim that meditation can free us from evolutionary illusions and lead to enlightenment. The reviewer initially presents a critical view, questioning whether Wright's version of enlightenment might lead to a nihilistic state. However, the review then steelmans Wright's arguments, suggesting that meditation could potentially lead to a more morally aware state by strengthening 'calm passions' and removing craving and aversion. The reviewer concludes by sharing personal experiences from a meditation retreat that align with Wright's more optimistic vision, while acknowledging the subjective nature of these experiences. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander proposes that confirmation bias might be a misapplication of normal Bayesian reasoning rather than a separate cognitive phenomenon. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses confirmation bias, suggesting it might not be a separate phenomenon from normal reasoning but rather a misapplication of Bayesian reasoning. He uses an example of believing a friend who reports seeing a coyote in Berkeley but disbelieving the same friend reporting a polar bear. Scott argues this is similar to how we process information that confirms or challenges our existing beliefs. He proposes that when faced with evidence contradicting strong priors, we should slightly adjust our beliefs while heavily discounting the new evidence. The post critiques an evolutionary psychology explanation of confirmation bias from a Fast Company article, suggesting instead that confirmation bias might be a result of normal reasoning processes gone awry rather than a distinct cognitive bias. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares and comments on excerpts from Joseph Henrich's 'The Secret of Our Success', exploring cultural evolution and its impact on human societies. Longer summary

This post highlights various passages from Joseph Henrich's book 'The Secret of Our Success', covering topics such as cultural evolution, gene-culture coevolution, social norms, and the development of human cognition and technology. Scott Alexander provides commentary and analysis on these excerpts, drawing connections to other ideas and contemporary issues. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores anorexia's biological aspects beyond cultural factors, presenting and analyzing del Giudice's 'self-starvation cycle' theory as a more comprehensive explanation of the disorder. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses anorexia, acknowledging its cultural component but emphasizing the biological aspects that persist even when cultural factors are no longer relevant. He presents del Giudice's 'self-starvation cycle' theory from 'Evolutionary Psychopathology', which suggests that initial food restriction, whether voluntary or involuntary, can trigger a biological response in predisposed individuals leading to ongoing anorexia. The post critiques purely cultural explanations of anorexia and highlights the limitations of current therapeutic approaches that focus solely on body image issues. Scott notes some weaknesses in the theory, particularly in explaining why not all starvation leads to anorexia, but overall finds it a useful model for understanding aspects of the disorder often overlooked by other explanations. Shorter summary

Scott reviews a book applying evolutionary psychology to psychiatry, finding the approach intriguing but hard to verify and potentially open to misuse. Longer summary

Scott reviews 'Evolutionary Psychopathology: A Unified Approach' by Marco del Giudice. The book applies evolutionary psychology to psychiatry, using life history theory to explain mental disorders. It proposes that humans adopt different life strategies (fast vs. slow) based on their environment and genetics, which influence personality traits and potentially psychiatric conditions. Scott finds the theory intriguing but notes it requires subdividing existing psychiatric categories in ways that make it hard to verify. He discusses potential social and political implications of the theory, including how it might explain effects of early childhood interventions and romantic success patterns. While seeing promise in the approach, Scott cautions that the theory could be used to justify problematic social views. Shorter summary

Scott proposes that value differences arise from people crystallizing heuristics at different levels, rather than from fundamental, incomprehensible differences in values. Longer summary

Scott explores the idea that value differences stem from people operating at different levels of a conceptual ladder, from explicit models to emotional experiences to reified essences to endorsed values. He argues that this perspective can help people understand each other better, as differences often arise from where individuals choose to crystallize heuristics rather than from fundamental, incomprehensible value differences. The post discusses various examples of this process, from nutrition to punishment to environmental preservation, and examines factors that influence where people place themselves on this ladder, such as intelligence, education, and personal experience. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the concept of 'laziness' and value differences, exploring how semantic debates can obscure practical communication and understanding. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of 'laziness' and debates about value differences. Through a dialogue between Sophisticus and Simplicio, he examines whether laziness exists, how to communicate about people with low motivation, and whether judgments about laziness are moral or practical. The post then extends to discuss punishment, evolutionary psychology, and the nature of value differences. It concludes with a metaphorical conversation about city centers, illustrating how semantic debates can obscure practical communication. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the motivational system as described in 'The Hungry Brain', connecting it to dopamine, willpower, and predictive processing theory. Longer summary

Scott Alexander revisits Stephan Guyenet's book 'The Hungry Brain', focusing on its description of the motivational system. He explains how the basal ganglia in lampreys and humans select behaviors from competing 'bids' made by different brain regions. The post then discusses dopamine's role in this system and how disorders like Parkinson's disease and abulia affect motivation. Scott concludes by proposing a theory linking dopamine levels, willpower, and the predictive processing model, suggesting that high dopamine levels may represent confidence in overriding default behaviors with more willpower-intensive actions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the conflict between predictive processing theory and evolutionary psychology claims about innate knowledge, questioning how genes could directly encode complex preferences. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the tension between predictive processing (PP) theory and evolutionary psychology claims about innate knowledge. He argues that while PP can accommodate some genetic influences on cognition, it struggles to explain how genes could directly encode high-level concepts like 'attraction to large breasts.' The post questions how such specific preferences could be genetically programmed given the limited number of genes humans have. Scott acknowledges that instincts clearly exist in animals, but suggests that even seemingly innate traits like gender identity may involve some level of inference. He proposes a heuristic for evaluating evolutionary psychology claims, recommending skepticism towards ideas that genes can directly manipulate high-level concepts unless there's a compelling evolutionary reason. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the synapse hypothesis of depression, which links decreased synaptogenesis to various depression research findings, and raises questions for future investigation. Longer summary

This post explores the synapse hypothesis of depression, which proposes that decreased synaptogenesis, regulated by the protein complex mTORC1, may be the underlying cause of depression. Scott Alexander reviews various lines of research on depression, including life adversity, inflammation, serotonin, glutamate, folate, and electroconvulsive therapy, and shows how the synapse hypothesis could potentially unify these diverse findings. He then expresses some skepticism about the theory, noting that it's easy to find connections between any proposed cause and various symptoms. The post concludes with six questions or areas of confusion that the author hopes will be addressed in future research, including why decreased synaptogenesis should cause depression specifically, why BDNF can't be used as a direct treatment, and how bipolar disorder fits into this framework. Shorter summary

Scott critiques Simler's theory of prestige, finding it insufficient for human behavior, and proposes five alternative explanations for the phenomenon. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques Kevin Simler's theory of prestige as presented in 'Social Status: Down The Rabbit Hole'. Simler separates status into dominance and prestige, with prestige explained through the behavior of Arabian babblers. Scott finds this explanation insufficient for human prestige, particularly for admiration of celebrities or people we don't interact with directly. He proposes five alternative explanations for prestige: group signaling, coattail riding, prestige by association, tit for tat, and virtuous cycles. Scott concludes that prestige might not be a single phenomenon and that separating dominance from prestige is a good starting point for understanding status. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the theory linking inflammation to depression, finding it promising but cautioning against overconfidence, and discusses the potential and limitations of anti-inflammatory drugs as depression treatments. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the theory that depression may be caused by inflammation, reviewing evidence for and against it. He explains how inflammatory cytokines are linked to sickness behavior and depression-like symptoms, and how this theory connects to other known facts about depression. While finding the theory promising, he cautions against overconfidence given past experiences with other depression theories. The post also explores the potential of anti-inflammatory drugs as depression treatments, concluding that while celecoxib shows promise, its cardiovascular side effects make it unsuitable as a first-line treatment for most patients. Shorter summary

Ozy Frantz provides a detailed critique of common 'manosphere' beliefs, particularly those of blogger Heartiste, using scientific studies and logical arguments to counter claims about human sexuality and dating. Longer summary

This post is a detailed rebuttal of many common beliefs within the 'manosphere', particularly focusing on the blogger Heartiste. The author, Ozy Frantz, argues against Heartiste's views on human sexual interaction, beauty standards, gender differences, and dating strategies. They provide counterarguments supported by scientific studies and logical reasoning, addressing topics such as physical attractiveness, femininity, sluttiness, and 'game' techniques. The post also touches on issues of evolutionary psychology, societal norms, and the nature of human sexuality. Throughout, Ozy maintains a skeptical stance towards many manosphere claims while acknowledging some gender differences do exist. Shorter summary

Scott examines the feeling of being a burden in depression, arguing that society owes individuals support and suggesting a need for new ways to find meaning beyond traditional 'contribution'. Longer summary

Scott discusses the concept of feeling like a burden, a common theme among suicidal patients. He explores how this feeling relates to depression and societal expectations, and argues that society owes individuals support due to how it has changed the environment humans evolved in. The post critiques the idea that people must 'contribute' to have worth, suggesting we need a new value system as automation increases. Scott proposes basic income as a potential solution and advises patients to focus on less tangible ways of finding meaning. Shorter summary