How to avoid getting lost reading Scott Alexander and his 1500+ blog posts? This unaffiliated fan website lets you sort and search through the whole codex. Enjoy!

See also Top Posts and All Tags.

Minutes:
Blog:
Year:
4542 tags
Show all filters
29 posts found
Jul 02, 2024
acx

Prediction Markets Suggest Replacing Biden

36 min • 4,680 words • 907 comments • 185 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander examines prediction markets suggesting that replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee could significantly improve the party's chances in the 2024 election. Longer summary
Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets to assess whether replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee would improve the party's chances in the 2024 election. He finds that replacing Biden with Kamala Harris would be neutral to slightly positive, while replacing him with Gavin Newsom or a generic Democrat could increase their odds of winning by 10-15 percentage points. Scott discusses potential objections to these findings, examines his own previous skepticism about Biden's cognitive decline, and reflects on the implications for Democratic party leadership and decision-making. Shorter summary
Nov 07, 2023
acx

Hardball Questions For The Next Debate

17 min • 2,209 words • 200 comments • 428 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander presents a satirical, fictional Republican primary debate with absurd rules to highlight candidate personalities and critique political debate formats. Longer summary
Scott Alexander presents a satirical, fictional account of a Republican primary debate with unusual rules. The debate features Chris Christie, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, and Donald Trump answering questions while adhering to increasingly absurd constraints, such as avoiding specific letters, using certain words or phrases, or speaking in specific poetic forms. The satire highlights the candidates' personalities and political positions while critiquing the format of political debates and the state of American politics. Shorter summary
Sep 05, 2023
acx

My Presidential Platform

22 min • 2,801 words • 452 comments • 675 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander presents a satirical presidential platform with outlandish and humorous policy proposals, critiquing various aspects of American politics and society. Longer summary
Scott Alexander presents a satirical presidential platform with outlandish and humorous policy proposals. The post covers a range of topics including naval supremacy, sovereign citizens, climate change, military service, Supreme Court appointments, education, internet privacy, and cultural issues. Each proposal is presented with a mix of historical references, current events, and absurd logic, creating a comedic critique of American politics and society. Shorter summary
Aug 11, 2023
acx

Highlights From The Comments On Putin

32 min • 4,142 words • 293 comments • 83 likes • podcast
Commenters provide additional context and debate points from Scott Alexander's review of a Putin biography, covering Putin's rise, the author's objectivity, and comparisons to US politics. Longer summary
This post summarizes comments on Scott Alexander's review of a Putin biography. The comments provide additional context and perspectives on Putin's rise to power, question the objectivity of the book's author Masha Gessen, suggest Putin may be slightly less bad than portrayed, discuss Putin as a culture warrior, and express concern about the potential for US intelligence agencies to undermine democracy. Key points include the importance of Russia's economic collapse in the 1990s for Putin's popularity, debates over Gessen's bias and reliability, alternative explanations for some seemingly suspicious events, Putin's alliance with the Russian Orthodox Church, and discussion of whether US agencies like the FBI/CIA could potentially act in ways similar to Russia's FSB. Shorter summary
Jul 12, 2022
acx

Mantic Monday 7/11/22

14 min • 1,763 words • 278 comments • 57 likes • podcast
The post examines prediction markets for Trump's 2024 chances, Musk's Twitter deal, and the impact of the Dobbs decision, while also discussing new forecasting initiatives and other current events. Longer summary
This Mantic Monday post covers several current events and their related prediction markets. It starts with Trump's chances for the 2024 GOP nomination, which remain high despite recent scandals. The post then discusses the new Swift Centre for Applied Forecasting, funded by the Future Fund. It examines prediction markets for Elon Musk's Twitter deal, showing low chances of completion. The post analyzes the impact of the Dobbs decision on Democrats' Senate chances, noting a puzzling delay in market reactions. Finally, it covers various other forecasting topics, including COVID-19 ensemble models, the race to replace Boris Johnson, and predictions about the East African Federation. Shorter summary
Jun 24, 2022
acx

Your Book Review: Public Choice Theory And The Illusion Of Grand Strategy

62 min • 7,995 words • 267 comments • 79 likes • podcast
A review of Richard Hanania's book arguing that public choice theory, not grand strategy, explains US foreign policy decisions and their often devastating consequences. Longer summary
This book review discusses Richard Hanania's 'Public Choice Theory And The Illusion Of Grand Strategy', which argues that public choice theory better explains US foreign policy than the unitary actor model. The review covers the book's key arguments, including how special interest groups shape foreign policy, the incoherence of American interventions, and the devastating effects of sanctions. It also explores the book's relevance to current events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine and potential implications for nuclear security and effective altruism. Shorter summary
Jun 13, 2022
acx

Mantic Monday 6/13/22

15 min • 1,857 words • 154 comments • 50 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander reviews recent predictions and forecasts on topics including monkeypox, the Ukraine war, AI development, and US politics. Longer summary
This Mantic Monday post covers several topics in prediction markets and forecasting, including monkeypox predictions, updates on the Ukraine-Russia war, AI development forecasts, Elon Musk's potential Twitter acquisition, and various political predictions. Scott discusses Metaculus predictions for monkeypox cases, analyzes forecasts for the Ukraine conflict, examines AI capability predictions in response to a bet between Elon Musk and Gary Marcus, and reviews predictions for US elections and other current events. The post also includes updates on prediction market platforms and recent articles about forecasting. Shorter summary
Jun 09, 2022
acx

Against "There Are Two X-Wing Parties"

5 min • 625 words • 628 comments • 145 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander critiques the claim that 'America has two X-wing parties' as meaningless or misleading, urging for more precise political comparisons. Longer summary
Scott Alexander criticizes the common political trope that 'America has two left-wing parties' or 'America has two right-wing parties'. He argues that this claim is meaningless when taken as an absolute statement, as there's no objective center in politics. When considered as a relative claim, it's either false (relative to US voters) or inconsistent (relative to other countries). He suggests that people making such claims are often comparing to specific reference points like US history or OECD countries, and should explicitly state their comparisons instead of making broad, ambiguous statements. Shorter summary
Jun 08, 2022
acx

Which Party Has Gotten More Extreme Faster?

25 min • 3,135 words • 1,112 comments • 162 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander examines which US political party has become more extreme faster, concluding Democrats have moved further left on policy since 1994, while results vary for other aspects of extremism. Longer summary
Scott Alexander analyzes the question of which political party in the US has become more extreme faster, breaking it down into four sub-questions. He concludes that Democrats have moved further left on policy positions since 1994 than Republicans have moved right, based on survey data and first principles. On divergence from ordinary Americans, he calls it a tie. Regarding ideological purity, Republicans show more polarization in Congress, but it's unclear for average voters. Scott avoids declaring a winner on which party has become crazier in worldview and messaging. He argues the policy position change is most important, supporting the meme that Democrats have moved more extreme, while noting other interpretations could point to Republicans. Shorter summary
May 24, 2022
acx

California Gubernatorial Candidates From Z to Z

87 min • 11,236 words • 316 comments • 198 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander humorously reviews the 26 candidates for California governor in 2022, highlighting their diverse backgrounds and unconventional policy ideas. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews the 26 candidates for California governor in 2022, providing humorous and insightful commentary on each candidate's background, policies, and campaign style. He covers a wide range of candidates, from established politicians to small business owners, immigrants, and even a former poet laureate. The post highlights the diversity of candidates and their often unconventional approaches to addressing California's issues, particularly homelessness. Scott concludes by expressing admiration for the candidates' spirit of optimism and civic engagement, seeing them as a positive sign for American democracy despite their slim chances of winning. Shorter summary
Apr 13, 2022
acx

Biography of Jason Shea, 44th US President

11 min • 1,424 words • 88 comments • 76 likes • podcast
Scott explores cultural translation by reimagining Xi Jinping's life as that of a fictional American president, Jason Shea, and reflects on the challenges of this creative exercise. Longer summary
Scott Alexander presents a creative writing exercise where he attempts to 'translate' the biography of Chinese leader Xi Jinping into an American context, creating the fictional character of Jason Shea as the 44th US President. He explores the challenges of cultural translation, drawing parallels between Chinese and American political systems and historical events. The post is divided into two parts: the fictional biography and a reflection on the writing process and its limitations. Shorter summary
Feb 01, 2022
acx

Predictions For 2022

18 min • 2,236 words • 181 comments • 42 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander shares his predictions for 2022 on various topics, comments on predictions from other sources, and announces a prediction contest for readers. Longer summary
Scott Alexander presents a list of predictions for 2022 covering various topics including US politics, world events, economics, technology, COVID-19, personal life, and his blog. He assigns probabilities to each prediction. The post also includes predictions from Vox and Matt Yglesias, which Scott comments on and adjusts based on his own views. The post ends with an announcement of a prediction contest for readers, based on the same set of questions. Shorter summary
Jan 24, 2022
acx

Grading My 2021 Predictions

12 min • 1,551 words • 140 comments • 86 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2021 predictions, analyzing his performance across various confidence levels and comparing his results to other forecasters and prediction markets. Longer summary
Scott Alexander grades his 2021 predictions, made at the beginning of the year. He lists 108 predictions on various topics including politics, economics, technology, COVID-19, community events, personal life, work, and his blog. The post details which predictions came true (in bold) and which didn't (in italics). Scott then analyzes his performance, breaking down the accuracy rates for different confidence levels. He compares his results to a graph of expected vs. actual accuracy, finding he was slightly underconfident overall. The post concludes with a comparison to other forecasters and prediction markets, showing Scott performed well but was outperformed by both Zvi and the markets. Shorter summary
Jul 07, 2021
acx

Lockdown Effectiveness: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

86 min • 11,106 words • 504 comments • 104 likes • podcast
Scott examines data on COVID-19 lockdown effectiveness, finding they likely reduced transmission but at significant costs, with targeted measures being most effective. Longer summary
Scott analyzes the effectiveness of COVID-19 lockdowns, examining data from Sweden, US states, and Europe. He finds that lockdowns likely reduced transmission rates, with targeted measures like school closures being more effective than stay-at-home orders. The analysis suggests lockdowns saved lives but at significant economic and emotional costs, with the cost-effectiveness varying between countries and time periods. Scott concludes that fast, well-targeted lockdowns may have been optimal, but emphasizes the high uncertainty in these estimates. Shorter summary
May 07, 2021
acx

Your Book Review: The Years Of Lyndon Johnson

19 min • 2,422 words • 86 comments • 62 likes • podcast
A review of Robert Caro's 'The Years of Lyndon Johnson' series, exploring LBJ's life, political tactics, and legacy, while praising the author's dedication and writing style. Longer summary
This book review of Robert Caro's series 'The Years of Lyndon Johnson' presents LBJ's life as an epic fantasy that happens to be true. The review highlights memorable characters from LBJ's era, outlines LBJ's strategies for amassing power, and discusses the author's dedication to thorough research. It also explores the moral complexity of LBJ's legacy, particularly his role in civil rights and the Vietnam War. The reviewer praises Caro's writing and research methods while pondering the implications of LBJ's political tactics for modern democracy. Shorter summary
Apr 26, 2021
acx

Mantic Monday: Predictions For 2021

9 min • 1,148 words • 257 comments • 49 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander shares his annual predictions for 2021, covering various topics from politics to personal life, with assigned probabilities for each prediction. Longer summary
Scott Alexander presents his annual predictions for the upcoming year, covering a wide range of topics including US politics, world events, economics, technology, COVID-19, community matters, personal life, work-related issues, and his blog. The post includes over 100 predictions with percentage probabilities assigned to each. Scott emphasizes that the purpose of these predictions is to calibrate his ability to assess his own knowledge and certainty, rather than to demonstrate expertise on the topics. Shorter summary
Feb 09, 2021
acx

Book Review: Why We're Polarized

39 min • 5,036 words • 928 comments • 129 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander reviews Ezra Klein's 'Why We're Polarized', finding it asks important questions about political polarization but provides few clear answers. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews Ezra Klein's book 'Why We're Polarized', which examines the historical and structural reasons for increasing political polarization in the United States. The book argues that the realignment of the Dixiecrats from Democrat to Republican in the 1960s allowed natural polarization to occur. Klein discusses factors like identity alignment, nationalization of politics, and negative partisanship as drivers of polarization. Scott finds some of Klein's arguments unconvincing, particularly regarding Republicans, and wishes for more international comparisons. He concludes that while the book asks important questions about polarization as a key political problem, it doesn't provide many clear answers. Shorter summary
Apr 29, 2020
ssc

Predictions For 2020

9 min • 1,086 words • 436 comments • podcast
Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2020, covering topics from coronavirus to personal goals, each with an assigned probability. Longer summary
Scott Alexander presents his annual list of predictions for the upcoming year (2020). The post includes 100 predictions on various topics including coronavirus, politics, economics, technology, his blog Slate Star Codex, personal life, and professional life. Each prediction is assigned a probability percentage. The predictions cover a wide range of subjects from global events to personal goals, with some entries redacted for privacy reasons. Scott explains the rules for these predictions and how they will be scored at the end of the year. Shorter summary
Apr 08, 2020
ssc

2019 Predictions: Calibration Results

14 min • 1,765 words • 91 comments • podcast
Scott Alexander reviews and analyzes his 2019 predictions, finding he was generally well-calibrated but slightly underconfident across all confidence levels. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews his predictions for 2019, made at the beginning of the year. He lists all the predictions, marking which ones came true, which were false, and which were thrown out. The predictions cover various topics including US politics, economics and technology, world events, personal projects, and his personal life. Scott then analyzes his performance, showing that he was generally well-calibrated but slightly underconfident across all confidence levels. He attributes this underconfidence to trying to leave a cushion for unexpected events, which didn't materialize in 2019. Scott notes that his worst failures were underestimating Bitcoin and overestimating SpaceX's ability to launch their crew on schedule. Shorter summary
Jan 05, 2020
ssc

Hardball Questions For The Next Debate (2020)

8 min • 1,013 words • 193 comments • podcast
Scott Alexander presents satirical and absurd 'hardball questions' for 2020 Democratic presidential candidates, showcasing clever wordplay and humorous connections. Longer summary
Scott Alexander proposes humorous and satirical 'hardball questions' for the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates. Each question is a clever play on words, current events, or personal characteristics of the candidates, designed to be absurd and comical rather than serious policy inquiries. The post showcases Scott's wit and ability to find unexpected connections and wordplay in political discourse. Shorter summary
Jan 25, 2019
ssc

Predictions For 2019

10 min • 1,207 words • 97 comments • podcast
Scott Alexander shares his 118 predictions for 2019, covering politics, economics, technology, and personal matters, with assigned probability percentages for each prediction. Longer summary
Scott Alexander presents his annual predictions for the upcoming year (2019). The post includes 118 predictions covering various topics such as US politics, economics, technology, world events, and personal matters. Each prediction is assigned a probability percentage. The predictions range from political outcomes (e.g., Trump's presidency, Democratic primaries) to economic indicators (e.g., Bitcoin prices, stock market performance) and personal goals. Many personal predictions are redacted to protect privacy. Scott explains the rules for these predictions and how they will be scored at the end of the year. Shorter summary
Jan 22, 2019
ssc

2018 Predictions: Calibration Results

15 min • 1,848 words • 123 comments • podcast
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2018 predictions, analyzing his accuracy and discussing factors that affected his performance. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews his predictions for 2018, made at the beginning of the year. He lists each prediction, marking those that came true, those that were false, and those he couldn't determine. Scott then analyzes his performance, presenting a calibration chart and discussing his accuracy at different confidence levels. He notes that he performed poorly on 50% predictions and 95% predictions. Scott attributes some of his inaccuracies to two unexpected events: the cryptocurrency crash and a personal breakup, which affected multiple correlated predictions. He concludes by mentioning he'll post 2019 predictions soon and invites readers to share their own predictions. Shorter summary
Feb 15, 2018
ssc

Five More Years

25 min • 3,126 words • 597 comments • podcast
Scott Alexander provides detailed predictions for the next five years on topics ranging from AI and politics to science and culture, with probability estimates for specific outcomes. Longer summary
Scott Alexander makes predictions for the next five years, covering a wide range of topics including AI, politics, culture wars, economics, technology, and science. He discusses potential developments in AI capabilities, European politics, global economic trends, religious shifts in the US, the future of US political parties, culture war dynamics, healthcare and economic divides, cryptocurrency, genetic research, space exploration, and global risks. The post is structured with general predictions followed by specific numbered predictions with probability estimates for each topic. Scott maintains a skeptical tone about dramatic changes, often predicting gradual shifts or continuations of current trends rather than radical transformations. Shorter summary
Feb 06, 2018
ssc

Predictions For 2018

12 min • 1,435 words • 302 comments • podcast
Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2018 on topics like politics, economics, technology, and personal goals, with assigned probabilities for each. Longer summary
Scott Alexander presents his annual predictions for 2018, covering various topics including US politics, economics, technology, culture wars, the rationalist community, and personal matters. He makes 100 predictions with assigned probabilities, ranging from political outcomes to personal goals. The post includes predictions about Donald Trump's presidency, cryptocurrency prices, SpaceX launches, and the growth of Scott's blog. He also mentions some secret predictions about friends' personal lives. Scott explains his methodology and notes some predictions he already believes may be miscalibrated. Shorter summary
Jan 02, 2018
ssc

2017 Predictions: Calibration Results

16 min • 2,076 words • 216 comments • podcast
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2017 predictions, analyzing his accuracy and calibration across different confidence levels. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews his predictions for 2017, made at the beginning of the year. He lists all predictions, marking false ones with strikethrough and uncertain ones in italics. He then analyzes his accuracy, presenting a graph of his calibration. Scott notes he was slightly overconfident at the 70% level, which he tried to correct from last year's underconfidence. He observes a tendency to overestimate how smoothly personal affairs would go and underestimate the US economy. Overall, he's satisfied with his calibration, showing neither global over- nor underconfidence. Shorter summary