Scott Alexander analyzes a study revealing poor statistical literacy among doctors, critiquing both the study and its implications for medical decision-making.
Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses a study showing poor statistical literacy among doctors, particularly Ob/Gyn residents. The post highlights that only 42% of doctors correctly answered a question about p-values, and only 26% correctly solved a Bayesian probability problem about mammogram results. Scott critiques the study's questions and interpretation, notes the Dunning-Kruger effect in self-reported statistical literacy, and points out gender differences in self-assessment. He concludes by questioning the FDA's decision to restrict individuals' access to their genome information based on doctors' supposed superior statistical understanding.
Shorter summary