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2 posts found
Nov 22, 2024
acx
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14 min 2,029 words Comments pending
Scott Alexander explains why dismissing warnings just because previous similar warnings were wrong is a dangerous fallacy, particularly for risks that naturally increase over time. Longer summary
Scott Alexander criticizes what he calls the "generalized anti-caution argument" - the tendency to dismiss warnings about risks because previous similar warnings didn't come true. He explains that for gradually increasing risks (like drug doses or AI capabilities), being wrong about earlier warnings doesn't invalidate later ones. He illustrates this through several examples including the Ukraine war, Biden's cognitive decline, and AI development, contrasting these with cases where the risk doesn't naturally increase over time. The post ends by arguing that people should maintain appropriate caution even after false alarms, particularly for risks that naturally increase over time. Shorter summary
Aug 06, 2013
ssc
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14 min 2,110 words 137 comments
Scott Alexander defends Bayesianism as a valuable epistemology, contrasting it with absolutist and nihilistic approaches, and argues for its usefulness in complex reasoning. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to David Chapman's criticism of 'Bayesianism' as a philosophy. He argues that Bayesianism is a genuine and valuable epistemology, contrasting it with two other approaches: Aristotelianism (which deals in absolutes) and Anton-Wilsonism (which advocates not believing anything). Scott posits that Bayesianism, or 'Epistemology X', is a synthesis of these, allowing for degrees of belief and updating based on evidence. He defends this view by sharing personal experiences and observations, arguing that while people may not always think in probabilities, having a coherent philosophical foundation like Bayesianism is valuable when dealing with complex issues outside one's comfort zone. Shorter summary