Scott Alexander introduces 'Metaculus Monday', a series focusing on prediction markets, and discusses several Metaculus predictions about COVID-19.
Longer summary
Scott Alexander introduces 'Metaculus Monday', a new series focusing on prediction markets, particularly Metaculus. He explains the current state of prediction markets, their limitations due to regulatory issues, and why he's chosen to focus on Metaculus. The post then delves into several Metaculus predictions about COVID-19, including total US deaths by the end of 2021, vaccine availability, vaccination rates, and potential new variants. Scott offers his own thoughts on these predictions and highlights the potential of prediction markets for informing policy decisions.
Shorter summary