A critical review of 'Why Nations Fail' that examines the authors' academic work and methodology, while questioning the book's quality and practical implications. Longer summary

This review critiques 'Why Nations Fail' by Acemoglu and Robinson (AR), arguing that while the book itself is not very good, AR's academic papers present a more compelling case for their thesis that political institutions are the main determinant of economic growth. The reviewer explains AR's methodology using instrumental variables, discusses their evidence and criticisms, and ultimately concludes that even if AR are correct, their extremely long-run focus may not be very useful for practical policymaking or development efforts. Shorter summary

A review of Joe Henrich's 'The Weirdest People in the World', examining its argument that the Western Church's marriage regulations led to WEIRD psychology and modern economic growth. Longer summary

This book review examines Joe Henrich's 'The Weirdest People in the World', which argues that the Western Church's Marriage and Family Program (MFP) dismantled intensive kinship networks, leading to WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic) psychology and modern economic growth. The reviewer discusses the book's scientific approach to European history, its extensive coverage of various topics, and raises questions about the intentionality of historical actors and the future implications of WEIRD psychology. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander summarizes the AI-focused issue of Asterisk Magazine, highlighting key articles on AI forecasting, testing, and impacts. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents an overview of the latest issue of Asterisk Magazine, which focuses on AI. He highlights several articles, including his own piece on forecasting AI progress, interviews with experts on AI testing and China's AI situation, discussions on the future of microchips and AI's impact on economic growth, and various other pieces on AI safety, regulation, and related topics. The post also mentions non-AI articles and congratulates the Asterisk team on their work. Shorter summary

Scott reviews a book on Xi Jinping's rule, exploring China's government structure and Xi's rise to power, concluding that China's system failed to prevent authoritarianism. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Elizabeth Economy's book 'The Third Revolution' about Xi Jinping's rule in China, but finds it doesn't answer his key questions about how Xi came to power. He explores China's government structure, the pre-Xi era, Xi's rise to power, and his actions as leader. Scott concludes that China's oligarchic system failed to prevent authoritarianism, increasing his confidence in democracy, though he's uncertain about attributing China's economic success solely to its government. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander summarizes a debate between Yudkowsky and Christiano on whether AI progress will be gradual or sudden, exploring their key arguments and implications. Longer summary

This post summarizes a debate between Eliezer Yudkowsky and Paul Christiano on AI takeoff speeds. Christiano argues for a gradual takeoff where AI capabilities increase smoothly, while Yudkowsky predicts a sudden, discontinuous jump to superintelligence. The post explores their key arguments, including historical analogies, the nature of intelligence and recursive self-improvement, and how to measure AI progress. It concludes that while forecasters slightly favor Christiano's view, both scenarios present significant risks that are worth preparing for. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines a study showing that Napoleonic reforms led to better economic outcomes, challenging the idea that evolved systems are always superior to designed ones. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a 2009 paper by Daron Acemoglu et al. that challenges the idea that organically evolved systems are superior to designed ones. The study found that areas invaded by Napoleon and subjected to radical institutional reforms experienced more rapid economic growth. Scott explores the implications of this study, its potential limitations, and how it challenges common beliefs about the superiority of evolved institutions over designed ones. Shorter summary

The post critically examines the impact of India's 1991 economic reforms, suggesting that the country's economic growth began earlier and that the causes are more complex than commonly believed. Longer summary

This post examines the economic reforms in India and their impact on poverty reduction and economic growth. The author challenges the widely held belief that the 1991 reforms were the primary cause of India's economic boom. By analyzing various studies and economic data, the post suggests that India's growth trajectory began earlier, possibly in the mid-1970s or early 1980s. The exact causes of this growth remain unclear, with various factors such as trade liberalization, public investment, and political attitudes towards business being potential contributors. The author also discusses the potential impact of socialist policies on developing countries and the importance of understanding these economic shifts for future policy-making and arguments against certain forms of socialism. Shorter summary

Scott examines hyperbolic growth models in population and economics, their apparent cancellation around 1960, and speculates on AI's potential to restart such growth. Longer summary

This post explores the concept of hyperbolic growth and its implications for technological and economic progress. Scott begins by discussing Heinz von Foerster's model of population growth, which predicted infinite population by 2026. He then applies this concept to economic growth, showing how it seemed to be on a hyperbolic trajectory until around 1960. The post examines why this growth pattern stopped, linking it to population growth trends. Scott also discusses the Industrial Revolution's role in this model and how it didn't significantly alter the overall growth trajectory. Finally, he speculates on the potential for AI to restart hyperbolic growth by providing a new way to convert economic resources into research capacity. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares and comments on key passages from Piketty's 'Capital in the Twenty-First Century', discussing historical economic trends and their modern implications. Longer summary

This post is a collection of passages highlighted by Scott Alexander in his reading of Thomas Piketty's 'Capital in the Twenty-First Century'. Scott provides commentary on various economic and historical insights from the book, including the failure of past economic predictions, the role of inheritance in society, the history of taxation and public debt, and how wealth inequality has changed over time. He draws parallels between Piketty's observations and rationalist thinking, and reflects on how these historical economic trends relate to modern society and politics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Piketty's 'Capital in the Twenty-First Century', finding its analysis of long-term economic trends and inequality compelling but pessimistic about proposed solutions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Thomas Piketty's 'Capital in the Twenty-First Century', a book on inequality and macroeconomic history. The review covers Piketty's key arguments about economic growth, the rise and fall of rentiers, and increasing inequality. Scott finds Piketty's data and analysis compelling, particularly the idea that normal economic growth is always 1-1.5% per year and that the rate of return on capital tends to exceed economic growth, leading to increasing inequality over time. The review discusses potential solutions like wealth taxes, but is pessimistic about their implementation. It ends on some cautiously optimistic notes about global inequality reduction and the scientific nature of Piketty's approach. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to criticisms of his tax bill posts, maintains that wealth distribution is more important than growth, and argues the bill likely won't benefit the poor as much as current spending. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses his thoughts on the recent tax bill, responding to criticisms of his previous posts. He admits he was wrong about there being no case for the bill and about CEO statements on using tax cuts. However, he maintains that economic growth is less important than wealth distribution, using an analogy about an effective altruist in a small town. He argues that in societies with high inequality, redistribution can be more beneficial than growth. Scott compares the potential benefits of the tax cut to other uses of government funds, concluding that it likely won't benefit the poor as much as maintaining current spending. He acknowledges some potential errors in his calculations but believes his overall point stands. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander defends his criticism of the GOP tax bill, arguing that even if taxes should be lowered, there are more effective ways to cut taxes that would directly benefit the poor and middle class. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to criticism of his previous article on the GOP tax bill, reaffirming his position that the bill is a poor approach to tax cuts. He argues that even if one believes taxes should be lower, there are better ways to implement tax cuts. Scott suggests that halving income taxes for the bottom 80% of earners would be a more effective alternative. He critiques the argument that corporate tax cuts boost economic growth, citing economist opinions, CEO statements, and historical trends. The post emphasizes that direct tax cuts or welfare programs for the poor and middle class would be more beneficial than the proposed corporate tax cuts. Shorter summary