Scott Alexander attempts to replicate a poll claiming high rates of COVID vaccine deaths, finds much lower rates, and concludes such polls are unreliable due to bias. Longer summary

Scott Alexander attempts to replicate a poll claiming high rates of COVID vaccine-related deaths. He conducts his own survey and finds much lower rates, investigates possible reasons for the discrepancy, and concludes that such polls are unreliable due to political bias and statistical misunderstanding. Scott's survey shows 0.6% of respondents reporting a vaccine-related death in their family, compared to 8.5% in the original poll. He follows up with respondents who reported deaths, finding most cases involve elderly individuals, and the numbers are consistent with normal death rates. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores correlations between PMS symptoms and various beliefs and traits, finding significant connections that leave him puzzled. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses survey results related to PMS symptoms and their correlations with various beliefs and traits. He attempts to replicate findings from Aella's Twitter polls, which showed connections between PMS and belief in the supernatural, as well as neuroticism. Using data from the ACX survey, Scott finds significant correlations between PMS symptoms and belief in the supernatural, as well as anxiety levels. He explores potential explanations, including cultural influences and hormonal factors, and presents additional correlations found in the survey data. The post ends with Scott expressing confusion about the findings and inviting readers to replicate his work using the publicly available survey results. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander investigates why self-reported IQ scores in online surveys are implausibly high, identifying issues with conversion tools, reporting bias, and unreliable tests. Longer summary

Scott Alexander investigates why self-reported IQ scores in online surveys seem implausibly high. He analyzes data from two surveys (Less Wrong 2014 and Clearer Thinking 2023) and identifies three main issues: 1) A popular SAT to IQ conversion tool was inaccurate, inflating scores. 2) Only the smartest people tend to report their SAT scores, skewing the sample. 3) Self-reported IQ test scores are often inflated or based on unreliable tests. After accounting for these factors, he estimates the average IQ of the Clearer Thinking sample at 111 and the Less Wrong sample at 128, which he considers more plausible. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander tests a hypothesis about gender integration moderating political views using his survey data, finding no significant effect of sibling gender on political attitudes. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines a claim about gender differences in political attitudes and tests a hypothesis using data from his 2022 survey. The post discusses a reported growing political gap between men and women, and a proposed explanation that increased gender integration might moderate political views. Scott tests this by comparing political attitudes of men and women with only brothers or only sisters. The results show no significant effect, suggesting that sibling gender doesn't influence political views in the way proposed. Scott also discusses potential limitations of using his survey data and mentions other explanations and challenges to the original finding. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes websites using flashing or changing elements, arguing they significantly worsen user experience despite being widely disliked. Longer summary

Scott Alexander criticizes websites that use flashing or changing elements in their user interfaces, arguing that these elements are annoying and detrimental to user experience. He provides examples from various websites, including a Jewish law site, Substack, AdBlock, Bing, and Gmail. Scott cites survey results showing that 88% of users find such elements at least a little annoying, with 16% saying they wouldn't use a website that has them. He expresses frustration that companies continue to implement these features despite user complaints and suggests that it negatively impacts his use of these services. The post concludes with a plea to interface designers to reconsider the use of such elements. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander replicates and analyzes data showing higher rates of long COVID among bisexuals, suggesting a significant psychosomatic component to the condition. Longer summary

Scott Alexander attempts to replicate a CDC finding that bisexuals were 50% more likely to report long COVID than heterosexuals. Using data from his own ACX survey, he finds that bisexual women were twice as likely, and bisexual men 50% more likely, to report long COVID compared to their heterosexual counterparts. He also notes correlations between long COVID and various mental illnesses. Scott suggests these results indicate that a substantial portion of long COVID cases may be psychosomatic, potentially classifying excess cases as a culture-bound mental illness. He proposes compassionate treatment for unavoidable cases alongside 'unawareness campaigns' to minimize avoidable psychosomatic ones. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander investigates the unexpectedly high prevalence of joint hypermobility in transgender individuals, exploring various theories and presenting survey data on the phenomenon. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the puzzling connection between transgender identity and hypermobile joints, particularly Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (EDS). He presents four theories to explain this correlation: 1) It's a spurious result due to 'Instagrammable' conditions clustering together, 2) Estrogen effects on joints in trans women, 3) Genetic link between gender divergence and joint issues, and 4) Autism as a shared causative factor. Scott favors a theory linking proprioception issues to different reasoning styles, potentially leading to both autism and transgender identity. He presents data from his own survey showing higher rates of joint issues in trans respondents, though with some limitations. The post concludes with plans for further investigation in future surveys. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander investigates the 'wisdom of crowds' hypothesis using survey data, exploring its effectiveness and potential applications. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the 'wisdom of crowds' hypothesis, which claims that the average of many guesses is better than a single guess. He tests this concept using data from his ACX Survey, focusing on a question about the distance between Moscow and Paris. The post explores how error rates change with crowd size, whether individuals can benefit from averaging multiple guesses, and compares his findings to a larger study by Van Dolder and Van Den Assem. Scott also ponders why wisdom of crowds isn't more widely used in decision-making and speculates on its potential applications and limitations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes survey data on different schooling types, finding home schooling associated with highest satisfaction but noting significant limitations in the data. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the results of the 2020 Slate Star Codex Survey regarding different schooling types and their outcomes. He looks at satisfaction with education, life satisfaction, social satisfaction, SAT scores, and other metrics across public, private, religious, home schooling, and unschooling. The analysis accounts for confounding factors like religion, social class, and age. Key findings include home schooled respondents reporting the highest satisfaction with their education, no significant social or romantic disadvantages for home schooled individuals, and potential concerns about unschooling outcomes. However, Scott emphasizes the survey's limitations due to the highly selected nature of SSC readers and other confounding factors. Shorter summary

Scott fact-checks and disproves a claim that all healthy people have mystical experiences using SSC Survey data. Longer summary

Scott Alexander fact-checks a tweet claiming all healthy people have mystical experiences using data from the 2020 SSC Survey. He defines a 'very mentally healthy' category and compares their reported spiritual experiences to the general survey population. The analysis shows that very mentally healthy individuals are actually less likely to report spiritual experiences, disproving the tweet's claim. Scott expresses relief at this finding, noting that spiritual experiences can be helpful for people during difficult times. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores new data on birth order effects among his blog readers, finding social factors likely explain firstborns' overrepresentation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander revisits the birth order effect he discovered in his blog readership in 2018, presenting new data from a 2020 survey. He confirms the original findings that firstborns are overrepresented among his readers, especially when age gaps between siblings are small. The post explores potential explanations, concluding that social factors, particularly parental attention, likely play a larger role than biological factors. This challenges some established views on the impact of early childhood experiences on adult outcomes. Scott acknowledges limitations in his analysis and calls for further research to better understand these effects. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores why readers prefer his old amateur blog layout to Substack's professional design, presenting survey data and considering various explanations for this unexpected preference. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the consistent preference of readers for his old Slate Star Codex (SSC) blog layout over the new Substack-mandated Astral Codex Ten (ACX) layout. He presents survey results and reader comments supporting this preference, despite the SSC layout being an amateur design compared to Substack's professional one. Scott explores possible explanations for this phenomenon, including selection bias, mobile optimization, WordPress vs. Substack, and the general trend towards minimalist designs in various fields. He questions why Substack's standardized layout appears to be less appealing than his old amateur design, drawing parallels to the MySpace vs. Facebook design philosophy and the concept explored in his 'Whither Tartaria?' post about the transition from complex to minimalist designs. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents results from his 2020 nootropics survey, covering effectiveness ratings, tolerance, and user experiences with various substances. Longer summary

This post presents the results of Scott Alexander's 2020 nootropics survey, where 852 respondents rated various substances on effectiveness. The survey covered a range of nootropics, from common stimulants to newer experimental substances. Key findings include the high rating of Zembrin (a kanna extract), insights on modafinil usage, and user experiences with caffeine alternatives. The post also discusses tolerance development, overall opinions on nootropics, and vendor recommendations. Scott notes that most respondents were from his blog community rather than the broader nootropics community, which he found disappointing. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the relationship between handedness, authoritarianism, and cognitive flexibility, finding unexpected results that contradict a recent study. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a study suggesting that consistently-handed individuals are more authoritarian and prejudiced than ambidextrous people. He attempts to replicate these findings using data from a previous SSC survey, but finds opposite results. Scott explores possible explanations for this discrepancy, including coding errors, the Lizardman Effect, and differences in study populations. He then speculates on the relationship between need for cognitive closure, ambidexterity, and various aspects of cognition and identity, including mental illness and intelligence. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander addresses Infowars readers about a misattributed survey analysis, providing caveats and emphasizing proper attribution and vaccine safety. Longer summary

Scott Alexander addresses new readers from Infowars, who linked to his blog regarding a survey analysis about mental illness and political affiliation. He clarifies that the analysis was not his own but done by a Twitter user using his survey data. Scott provides several important caveats about the interpretation of these results, including potential biases in diagnosis rates and the unrepresentative nature of his blog's audience. He also points out that a similar finding was reported using the more rigorous General Social Survey. Scott emphasizes the importance of proper attribution in media reporting and reiterates the safety of vaccines. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents survey data showing autogenderphilia is common in both cisgender and transgender populations, challenging existing theories about its relationship to gender identity. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes data from the SSC survey regarding autogenderphilia, the sexual arousal from imagining oneself as a particular gender. The post challenges the theory that autogenderphilia is primarily associated with transgender individuals, showing it's common among cisgender people as well. Scott presents survey results broken down by gender identity and sexual orientation, revealing that autogenderphilia rates are high in both cis and trans populations. He proposes a simpler hypothesis: people who identify as a gender and are attracted to that gender are more likely to experience autogenderphilia. The post discusses potential limitations of the data and compares findings to existing theories, ultimately suggesting that autogenderphilia may be more widespread and less pathological than previously thought. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander investigates the prevalence of Hallucinogen Persisting Perceptual Disorder (HPPD) and explores potential connections between perception, cognition, and belief in supernatural phenomena. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the prevalence and nature of Hallucinogen Persisting Perceptual Disorder (HPPD), a condition where people experience ongoing visual disturbances after using psychedelics. He discusses results from his own survey, which found that about 12.8% of psychedelic users reported some persisting hallucinations, with 3% still experiencing them. Most cases were mild, involving visual snow, halos, or patterns. Scott then critiques a study claiming HPPD doesn't exist, noting methodological issues. He also considers the possibility that some people naturally experience HPPD-like phenomena without drug use, and speculates on potential links between perception, cognition, and belief in supernatural phenomena. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents survey results on people's satisfaction with mental health care, showing varied preferences across different types of therapy and conditions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the results of the SSC survey regarding people's experiences with mental health care. The post presents various graphs showing satisfaction ratings for different types of therapy, medication, and mental health issues. Key findings include an average rating of 5.7/10 for both psychotherapy and medication, higher satisfaction with therapy from books compared to in-person or online therapy, and varying preferences for medication vs. therapy depending on the mental health condition. The author emphasizes that the results are exploratory and subject to biases. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes SSC survey data on sexual roles, finding strong gender and orientation influences, but no connection to self-sabotaging behaviors or altruism. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes survey data on sexual roles (dominance, submission, sadism, and masochism) from the SSC survey. He initially hypothesizes a connection between sexual masochism and self-sabotaging behaviors but finds no evidence for this. The analysis reveals that BDSM preferences are heavily gendered and influenced by sexual orientation. Among straight cis men, factors like good social skills, high risk-taking, ambition, and conservative political values correlate with a preference for dominance. Submissive men reported lower sex drive and fewer relationships. The post also briefly touches on sadism vs. masochism, noting similar patterns to dominance vs. submission. Two mildly interesting findings are mentioned: men with OCD are less likely to be sadists, and men who grew up poor reported higher rates of sexual sadism. The data showed no connection between sexual roles and prosocial behaviors like charitable giving. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents results from an SSC Survey on SSRI usage, covering effectiveness, side effects, and discontinuation experiences among 2,090 users. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents the results of an SSC Survey on SSRI usage, covering their effectiveness, side effects, and discontinuation experiences. The survey included 2,090 SSRI users and explored various aspects of SSRI use. Key findings include: most users found SSRIs helpful, with Lexapro rated highest and Paxil lowest; SSRIs seemed more effective for anxiety than depression; 70% of users experienced side effects, with sexual difficulties being most common; 15% reported persistent side effects after discontinuation; and discontinuation difficulty varied among different SSRIs, with Prozac being easiest to discontinue. The survey largely confirmed existing psychiatric consensus, with the high rate of persistent side effects being the main surprise. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander tests the claim that mathematicians' preference for algebra or analysis predicts their corn-eating style, finding no significant correlation in a survey of over 2,600 respondents. Longer summary

Scott Alexander investigates a claim made by Ben Tilly that mathematicians' preference for algebra or analysis predicts how they eat corn (in rows or spirals). Scott included questions about math preference and corn-eating style in his 2019 Slate Star Codex reader survey. Analyzing 2,683 responses, including a subset of PhD mathematicians, he found no significant correlation between math preference and corn-eating style, contradicting Tilly's observation. Scott suggests the original claim might be due to the power of suggestion or selective memory. He also explores demographic factors influencing corn-eating styles, finding some cultural differences but no clear explanation for the variability. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes a survey on readers' estimated probabilities of Kavanaugh's guilt, finding significant partisan differences and no clear consensus even with probabilistic thinking. Longer summary

Scott Alexander conducted a survey asking readers to estimate the probability of Judge Kavanaugh being guilty of sexually assaulting Dr. Ford. The post analyzes the results, breaking them down by political party, gender, and background knowledge. The average probability given was 52.64%, with significant partisan differences. The survey also explored whether respondents thought the accusations were sufficient to reject Kavanaugh's nomination. Scott notes that even when encouraged to think probabilistically, people's responses still showed strong partisan biases, and there was no clear consensus even among politically neutral respondents. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes a surprising age-related trend in responses to a parentheses riddle on the SSC survey, exploring possible explanations for why younger respondents were more likely to answer correctly. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a parentheses riddle included in the SSC survey, which unexpectedly revealed a strong correlation between age and the likelihood of answering correctly. Younger respondents were more than twice as likely to choose the correct answer (B) compared to those in their 60s. Scott explores various hypotheses to explain this trend, including tech-savviness, cognitive decline, and survey-taking attitudes, but finds these explanations unsatisfactory. He speculates that age-related cognitive decline might affect parentheses-reading faculties specifically, independent of general intelligence. The post ends with an edit noting commenters' suggestion that younger people might have encountered the riddle before on social media. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes survey data to test the claim that rejection sensitivity is a key feature of ADHD, finding limited support and emphasizing caution in adopting such ideas without formal research. Longer summary

Scott Alexander investigates the claim that rejection-sensitive dysphoria is a key feature of ADHD using data from the Slate Star Codex survey. He finds that while people with ADHD do show slightly higher rejection sensitivity than those without psychiatric conditions, it's not as dramatic as some claim, and ADHD actually shows the lowest rejection sensitivity among the psychiatric conditions studied. The post critiques the lack of formal evidence for this claim, discusses potential Forer effects, and emphasizes the need for caution when adopting new ideas about psychiatric symptoms, especially those spread in patient communities without formal research backing. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews and responds to comments on his survey about sexual harassment rates in different fields, addressing methodological issues and presenting additional demographic data. Longer summary

This post discusses comments and analyses related to the SSC Survey Results on Sexual Harassment Levels By Field. It covers various points raised by commenters, including attempts to reproduce the results, alternative interpretations of the data, methodological critiques, and additional factors that might influence harassment rates. The post also presents additional data on harassment rates by various demographic factors, while cautioning against drawing strong conclusions without proper statistical analysis. Shorter summary