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Apr 19, 2021
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Mantic Monday: Grading My Trump Predictions

75 min • 9,658 words • 1,013 comments • 96 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander evaluates his predictions about the Trump presidency, finding he performed about average overall with some notable successes and failures. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews and grades his predictions about Donald Trump's presidency, covering topics from Trump's base diversity to the likelihood of a coup. He analyzes his successes and failures, discussing his performance on prediction markets and his overall accuracy compared to average pundits. Scott concludes that he did about average in his predictions, with some notable successes in race-related predictions and on prediction markets, but also made mistakes in overestimating Trump's competence and underestimating his continued support from Republicans. Shorter summary
Sep 04, 2019
ssc

List Of Passages I Highlighted In My Copy Of Ages Of Discord

11 min • 1,364 words • 53 comments • podcast
Scott Alexander shares and comments on passages from Peter Turchin's 'Ages of Discord', exploring historical cycles of unity and polarization in American society. Longer summary
This post is a collection of highlighted passages from Peter Turchin's book 'Ages of Discord'. Scott Alexander discusses various historical examples of unity and polarization in American society, including demands for more partisanship in the 1940s, intense violence in Congress during the Civil War era, and the role of conflict with Native Americans in forging a common 'white' identity. The post also touches on the concept of 'elite overproduction' and its impact on political stability, and examines Turchin's use of word frequency analysis to track societal cooperation over time. Scott concludes by noting parallels between economic crises and shifts in prevailing economic doctrines. Shorter summary
Dec 02, 2014
ssc

Book Review: On The Road

30 min • 3,819 words • 581 comments • podcast
Scott Alexander critically reviews 'On the Road' by Jack Kerouac, highlighting its problematic glorification of irresponsible behavior and flawed philosophy. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews Jack Kerouac's 'On the Road', criticizing the book's glorification of irresponsible behavior, its treatment of women and minorities, and its excessive use of religious adjectives. He contrasts the characters' perceived oppression with their actual privilege in 1950s America, and reflects on the book's philosophy of rejecting societal norms. Scott suggests the book might be best read as an early exploration of a lifestyle that has since become commonplace, and compares its flawed utopianism to early Communist thought. Shorter summary