Scott Alexander presents a series of satirical job interviews at Thiel Capital, where candidates share increasingly absurd unpopular beliefs, highlighting the nature of conspiracy theories and contrarian thinking. Longer summary

This post is a satirical piece featuring a series of fictional job interviews at Thiel Capital. Each interview involves asking candidates to share an unpopular belief they hold. The responses range from absurd conspiracy theories to unconventional interpretations of historical events and scientific concepts. The interviewers' reactions highlight the absurdity of the candidates' beliefs, while also poking fun at the idea of 'based' or controversial opinions in tech and finance circles. The piece uses humor to explore themes of conspiracy theories, contrarian thinking, and the nature of unconventional beliefs. Shorter summary

The review analyzes Real Raw News, a popular conspiracy theory website, examining its content, appeal, and implications in the context of modern media consumption and AI technology. Longer summary

This book review analyzes the website Real Raw News, a popular source of conspiracy theories and fake news stories centered around Donald Trump and his alleged secret war against the 'Deep State'. The reviewer examines the site's content, its narrative techniques, and its appeal to believers, drawing parallels to comic book lore and discussing the psychological needs it fulfills. The review also considers the broader implications of such conspiracy theories in the age of AI-generated content. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander satirizes Silicon Valley culture through a fictional house party where everyone is obsessed with Sam Altman's firing from OpenAI. Longer summary

Scott Alexander writes a satirical account of a Bay Area house party, where conversations are dominated by speculation about Sam Altman's firing from OpenAI. The narrator encounters various eccentric characters, including startup founders with unusual ideas and people with conspiracy theories about the Altman situation. The story humorously exaggerates Silicon Valley culture, tech industry obsessions, and the tendency for people to form elaborate theories about current events. Shorter summary

Scott clarifies his stance on conspiracy theories and expert trust, advocating for a nuanced approach that acknowledges both the value of expert opinion and the potential for misrepresentation. Longer summary

Scott revisits his previous post on fideism, addressing criticism and clarifying his stance on conspiracy theories and trusting experts. He presents three perspectives on conspiracy theories: Idiocy, Intellect, and Infohazard, and argues for a nuanced approach. Scott emphasizes that conspiracy theories can be convincing even to smart people, and that completely avoiding discussion of them is not always effective. He stresses the importance of trusting experts while also being aware of potential biases and misrepresentations. The post concludes with detailed advice on how to approach conspiracy theories and maintain a balanced perspective. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander defends his thorough analysis of ivermectin studies, arguing that dismissing controversial topics without addressing evidence can inadvertently promote conspiracy theories. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to criticism from Chris Kavanagh about his lengthy analysis of ivermectin studies. He argues that dismissing controversial topics without addressing evidence can push people toward conspiracy theories. Scott shares his personal experience with Atlantis conspiracy theories as a teenager, emphasizing the importance of providing rational explanations rather than mockery. He critiques Kavanagh's apparent stance against examining evidence, likening it to religious fideism. Scott defends the value of practicing critical thinking and evidence evaluation, even on settled issues, to build skills for harder cases. He argues that conspiracy theorists use similar reasoning processes to everyone else, just with more biases, and that understanding these processes is crucial for effective communication and prevention of misinformation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including Metaculus' milestone, PredictIt's legal issues, and various prediction market topics. Longer summary

This Mantic Monday post covers several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. Scott discusses Metaculus reaching its one millionth prediction, PredictIt's legal battle with the CFTC, former Russian President Medvedev's outlandish 2023 predictions, conspiracy theory prediction markets, Scott's own 2022 prediction calibration results, updates on 'scandal markets', and highlights from various current prediction markets. He also shares some thoughts on the challenges and potential pitfalls of certain types of prediction markets. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines two types of conspiracy theories, suggesting they stem from different cognitive processes: unusual evidence processing and emotional priors. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores two types of conspiracy theories: those centered on anomalies in narratives (like Kennedy assassination theories) and those based more on emotional responses (like the Global Adrenochrome Pedophile Cabal). He suggests that the first type often stems from unusual evidence processing styles, while the second type may be rooted in strong emotions acting as priors for cognitive processing. Scott proposes that some conspiracy theories might be attempts to justify strong negative feelings towards certain groups or individuals, providing a clear and objectively bad reason to hate them when reality is often more complex and ambiguous. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander addresses reactions to his claim that media rarely lies, exploring different interpretations of 'lying' and examining specific cases of alleged media deception. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the reactions to his previous posts about media rarely lying, addressing various criticisms and examples provided by commenters. He explores different interpretations of 'lying', examines specific cases of alleged media deception, and reiterates his position that while media often misleads or reasons poorly, it rarely engages in outright fabrication of facts. Scott also reflects on the nature of conspiracy theories and the importance of understanding how people can genuinely believe false things. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander investigates whether non-religious people are more prone to believing conspiracy theories, finding a U-shaped relationship between religiosity and skepticism. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the claim that non-religious people are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories and woo. He analyzes various studies on beliefs in UFOs, Bigfoot, and astrology across different religious groups. The results show a more nuanced picture: both strongly religious people and outright atheists are generally less likely to believe in these theories, while those in the middle (weakly religious or agnostic) are more susceptible. Scott discusses possible explanations for this pattern, including intellectual coherence and closed-mindedness. He concludes that the relationship between religiosity and belief in conspiracy theories is more complex than commonly assumed. Shorter summary

A review of Guy Debord's 'The Society of the Spectacle', examining its critique of capitalism and mass media, and relating its ideas to modern issues. Longer summary

This review examines Guy Debord's 'The Society of the Spectacle', a Marxist critique of capitalism and mass media. The reviewer summarizes Debord's key ideas about how spectacle dominates modern society, commodifies all aspects of life, and creates a false reality. The review also covers Debord's later comments on the book, relating his ideas to current issues like social media, fake news, and information warfare. While acknowledging the book's insights, the reviewer ultimately takes a more moderate stance on capitalism and technology's impacts. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores how to navigate bias in media and expert opinions through understanding the unwritten rules of misrepresentation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the concept of 'bounded distrust' in media and expert opinions. He argues that while many news sources and experts are biased, there are unwritten rules about how far they will go in misrepresenting facts. Understanding these rules allows people to extract useful information even from biased sources. He uses examples from FOX News, Washington Post, and scientific research to illustrate how people can navigate bias and misinformation. The post concludes by acknowledging that this skill of discerning truth from biased sources is not universal, leading to a divide between 'savvy' and 'clueless' people in their trust of institutions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Don't Look Up', critiquing its contradictory narratives about trusting science and experts vs. outsiders. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the movie 'Don't Look Up', focusing on its political implications rather than its message about existential risk. He summarizes the plot, then critiques the film's self-contradictory narratives about trusting experts vs. trusting outsiders. Scott argues that the movie unintentionally encourages conspiracy thinking while trying to promote 'trusting science'. He explains how people often hold contradictory political narratives, deploying whichever is convenient. The review concludes that the film succeeds in conveying emotions around existential risk debates but fails to coherently follow through on its intended message. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the universal human drive for discovery and knowledge-seeking, comparing it to 'intellectual minor leagues' and questioning how non-experts can contribute meaningful insights. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on Adrian Hon's article about QAnon and alternate reality games, exploring the human drive for discovery and knowledge-seeking. He argues that this drive isn't limited to conspiracy theorists but is present in all of us, including academics and bloggers. Scott discusses how people satisfy their intellectual curiosity in a world where most significant discoveries have already been made, comparing it to 'intellectual minor leagues'. He considers various explanations for how non-experts can still contribute meaningful insights, such as the vastness of knowledge, unique combinations of experiences, or repackaging existing ideas. The essay concludes by questioning the author's own role in knowledge production and suggesting that the discovery drive is a fundamental human trait. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the 'Tartaria' conspiracy theory to discuss broader shifts in aesthetic preferences, examining potential explanations and their implications for society. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the 'Tartaria' conspiracy theory, which posits that modern architecture is inferior to older styles due to a hidden societal regression. He uses this to discuss broader shifts in aesthetic preferences across various art forms. The post examines several potential explanations for this shift, including changes in wealth signaling, elite tastes, religious influences, labor costs, and the split between high art and mass culture. Scott concludes by reflecting on the importance of understanding these changes, as they relate to broader questions of class, signaling, and how intellectual and cultural elites relate to society at large. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander introduces the 'North Dakota Constant' to explain why about 33% of people tend to believe in conspiracy theories in surveys, regardless of evidence. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the prevalence of belief in conspiracy theories, introducing the concept of a 'North Dakota Constant' of about 33% - the percentage of people who will believe in a conspiracy theory without any supporting evidence. He compares this to the previously established 'Lizardman Constant' of 4%. The post analyzes survey data on beliefs in various conspiracy theories, including Pizzagate and Obama's birthplace, arguing that the seemingly high percentages of belief might be more reflective of this constant rather than actual widespread acceptance of these theories. Scott suggests that factors like the absence of 'don't know' options in surveys, low-information voters, and pre-existing biases might contribute to these results. He concludes that we should be cautious about drawing strong conclusions from such survey data, especially when the percentage of believers is close to 33%. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander introduces 'prospiracy theories', positive conspiracy-style memes designed to spread true and beneficial information, in response to the rapid spread of conspiracy theories on social media. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his previous post about conspiracy theories spreading faster than debunkings on Facebook. He presents a creative solution by creating 'prospiracy theories' - positive, uplifting conspiracy-style memes designed to spread true and beneficial information. The post includes four image examples of these prospiracy theories, covering topics like the benefits of exercise, the importance of sleep, the value of reading, and the positive impact of kindness. These images mimic the style of conspiracy theory memes but promote factual, beneficial information instead. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes an article about Facebook moderators' working conditions, drawing parallels to his experience in psychiatric hospitals and discussing the challenges of content moderation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a Verge article about the challenging work conditions of Facebook content moderators. He acknowledges the difficulty of their job, which involves exposure to disturbing content and adherence to complex rules. Scott draws parallels to his experience in psychiatric hospitals, noting how strict regulations often result from previous scandals or lawsuits. He critiques the article's stance, suggesting that many of the problems it highlights are consequences of attempts to address issues raised by similar investigative reports. Scott also ponders the balance between maintaining safety and creating a humane work environment, and expresses concern about the article's implications regarding the spread of conspiracy theories among moderators. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the overuse of the term 'conspiracy theory' and provides heuristics for evaluating the plausibility of conspiratorial claims. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the concept of conspiracy theories, arguing that the term is often overused and misapplied. He presents a list of various claims, ranging from political conspiracies to scientific misconduct, and analyzes which should be considered conspiracy theories. The post introduces the 'Basic Argument Against Conspiracy Theories' which states that large secret organizations are difficult to maintain without detection. Scott then applies this principle to various scenarios, showing how some seemingly conspiratorial ideas might not actually qualify as conspiracy theories. He concludes by offering heuristics for evaluating the plausibility of conspiracy claims, emphasizing that the size, secrecy, and self-interest of the groups involved are key factors to consider. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a 'Grand Unified Chart' showing how different domains of knowledge share a similar structure in interpreting the world, arguing this is due to basic brain algorithms and effective epistemology. Longer summary

Scott Alexander draws parallels between different domains of knowledge, showing how they all share a similar structure in interpreting the world. He presents a 'Grand Unified Chart' that compares Philosophy of Science, Bayesian Probability, Psychology, Discourse, Society, and Neuroscience. Each domain is broken down into three components: pre-existing ideas, discrepancies, and actual experiences. Scott argues that this structure is universal because it's built into basic brain algorithms and is the most effective way to do epistemology. He emphasizes that the interaction between facts and theories is bidirectional, and that theory change is a complex process resistant to simple contradictions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander humorously presents and comments on bizarre search terms that led people to his blog, Slate Star Codex. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews unusual search terms that led people to his blog, Slate Star Codex. The post is a humorous collection of bizarre, sometimes disturbing, and often nonsensical search queries. Scott groups similar queries together and adds witty commentary, creating a comedic effect through the juxtaposition of unrelated or absurd concepts. The post highlights the strange and varied interests of internet users, as well as common misspellings of terms like 'Glasgow Coma Scale' and 'Slate Star Codex'. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents satirical, absurdist 'hardball' questions for presidential candidates, blending their backgrounds with outlandish scenarios and philosophical puzzles. Longer summary

Scott Alexander proposes a series of humorous and satirical 'hardball' questions for presidential candidates in a debate format. He crafts elaborate, absurd scenarios for each candidate based on their background or public statements. For Dr. Carson, he questions the ethics of functional hemispherectomy. For Fiorina, he critiques her praise of the Ottoman Empire. For Bush, he uses statistics to question political dynasties. For Cruz, he explores the paradox of trusting a skilled debater. For Rubio, he spins a conspiracy theory about a magical sword. For Trump, he pokes fun at his branding habits. Shorter summary

Scott examines why the rich appear to influence politics despite theoretical barriers, proposing that moral philosophies may emerge to solve wealthy coordination problems. Longer summary

This post explores the paradox of how the rich seem to influence politics despite the free-rider problem that should theoretically prevent such coordination. Scott starts by explaining why it's not in an individual rich person's self-interest to donate to political causes, even if the outcome would benefit them. He then proposes two possible explanations: either the rich influence politics through 'soft power', or they participate due to sincere moral beliefs that happen to align with their financial interests. The latter explanation leads to a fascinating hypothesis about how moral philosophies might 'spring up' to solve coordination problems among the wealthy. Scott concludes by noting the implications of this idea, including its potential application to other conspiracy theories and why the poor don't seem to coordinate as effectively. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the puzzling lack of GDP impact from women's significant entry into the workforce, considering various explanations and economic implications. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the puzzling lack of impact on GDP trends despite women's significant entry into the workforce between 1935 and 1985. He explores possible explanations, including data inaccuracies, low-resolution data, substitution of unpaid labor, or contradictions to economic theory. The post also addresses whether women's workforce participation lowered male wages, drawing parallels to debates about immigrant labor. Scott notes the absence of evidence for wage depression and expresses confusion about the economic implications of this major labor force change. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of 'Lizardman's Constant' and its implications for interpreting poll results, especially those concerning unpopular beliefs. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the concept of 'Lizardman's Constant', which refers to the roughly 4% of respondents in polls who give outlandish or deliberately false answers. He explores this through three examples: a personal experience with survey responses, a poll about conspiracy theories, and a controversial study on climate change skepticism. The post argues that when dealing with unpopular beliefs, polls can only provide weak signals that are easily overwhelmed by noise from various sources, including jokesters, cognitive biases, and deliberate misbehavior. Scott concludes that polls relying on detecting very weak signals should be treated with skepticism. Shorter summary

Scott criticizes the approach to mysticism popularized by Robert Anton Wilson, arguing it provides false rewards and promotes harmful dabbling instead of genuine practice. Longer summary

Scott reflects on his past interest in Robert Anton Wilson's writings and mysticism in general, comparing it to his high school fascination with physics. He argues that learning about mysticism is different from actually practicing it, much like reading about physics isn't the same as doing physics. Scott identifies three main problems with the Anton-Wilson approach to mysticism: it provides a false sense of reward, encourages conspiracy thinking, and promotes harmful dabbling. He concludes that if he were to pursue mysticism again, he would focus on practicing one tradition at a time, avoiding the temptation to mix different approaches or read extensively about mysticism without actually doing it. Shorter summary