The review analyzes Real Raw News, a popular conspiracy theory website, examining its content, appeal, and implications in the context of modern media consumption and AI technology. Longer summary

This book review analyzes the website Real Raw News, a popular source of conspiracy theories and fake news stories centered around Donald Trump and his alleged secret war against the 'Deep State'. The reviewer examines the site's content, its narrative techniques, and its appeal to believers, drawing parallels to comic book lore and discussing the psychological needs it fulfills. The review also considers the broader implications of such conspiracy theories in the age of AI-generated content. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews a book about Hugo Chavez, analyzing his rise to power, rule, and impact on Venezuela, while drawing parallels to other populist leaders. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Comandante', a book about Hugo Chavez's rise to power and rule in Venezuela. The review describes Chavez as a charismatic showman who used populist tactics, media control, and oil wealth to consolidate power, while implementing policies that ultimately damaged Venezuela's economy and institutions. Scott draws parallels between Chavez and other populist leaders, particularly Donald Trump, and reflects on the vulnerabilities of democratic systems to such figures. Shorter summary

The post examines prediction markets for Trump's 2024 chances, Musk's Twitter deal, and the impact of the Dobbs decision, while also discussing new forecasting initiatives and other current events. Longer summary

This Mantic Monday post covers several current events and their related prediction markets. It starts with Trump's chances for the 2024 GOP nomination, which remain high despite recent scandals. The post then discusses the new Swift Centre for Applied Forecasting, funded by the Future Fund. It examines prediction markets for Elon Musk's Twitter deal, showing low chances of completion. The post analyzes the impact of the Dobbs decision on Democrats' Senate chances, noting a puzzling delay in market reactions. Finally, it covers various other forecasting topics, including COVID-19 ensemble models, the race to replace Boris Johnson, and predictions about the East African Federation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander endorses Clinton (or Johnson/Stein in safe states) over Trump, citing concerns about Trump's unpredictability and potential negative impacts on conservatism and social dynamics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander endorses voting for Hillary Clinton in swing states, and Clinton, Johnson, or Stein in safe states. He argues against Donald Trump, not primarily on policy grounds, but because of Trump's unpredictability, potential for high-variance outcomes, and the damage he could do to conservatism and the fight against social justice extremism. Alexander expresses concerns about Trump's lack of concrete plans, his potential to radicalize the next generation towards the far left, and his movement's epistemic vices. He also touches on issues like global warming and immigration, urging readers to consider the long-term consequences of their vote. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes media tendencies to label politicians as racist or sexist based on ambiguous statements, arguing we should focus more on their stated positions and actions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander criticizes the media's tendency to label politicians as racist or sexist based on ambiguous statements or 'dog whistles'. He argues this often ignores the politicians' actual stated beliefs and policies in favor of overanalyzing gaffes or interpreting statements as secret codes. The post examines three cases: Ted Cruz being called anti-Semitic for saying 'New York values', Ken Livingstone being labeled anti-Semitic for comments about Hitler and Zionism, and Donald Trump being called openly sexist despite his pro-women hiring record. Scott suggests we should be more skeptical of media claims to have special insight into politicians' true beliefs and instead focus on their stated positions and past actions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Trump's 'The Art of the Deal', finding it mostly autobiographical with little useful business advice, and revealing Trump's deal-focused worldview. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Donald Trump's 1988 book 'The Art of the Deal'. The review notes that while the book promises business advice, only a small portion actually contains such advice, which is vague and not particularly useful. The bulk of the book is an autobiography focused on Trump's real estate deals. Alexander observes that Trump's approach to business is less about changing systems and more about gaming existing ones through coordination, often involving strategic deception. The review highlights Trump's focus on hiring the best people and knowing the right connections, which Alexander sees as potentially explaining Trump's approach to politics. Overall, Alexander portrays Trump as having a narrow, deal-focused worldview that, while alien to the reviewer, has proven successful. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines different models of social class in America, exploring their implications for understanding society and politics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses various perspectives on social class in America, focusing on the distinction between economic and social class. He summarizes and compares several models of class structure, including those by Siderea, Michael Church, and Unqualified Reservations. The post explores how these models relate to political views, cultural signifiers, and social mobility. Scott also reflects on how class intersects with other factors like politics, race, and education, and considers the implications of class analysis for understanding social phenomena and policy outcomes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander debunks the idea that Trump's supporters are disproportionately white, revealing that Bernie Sanders actually has much whiter support, and uses this to challenge common narratives about race and politics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the media narrative that Donald Trump's supporters are disproportionately white, showing it to be unsupported by polling data. He then reveals that Bernie Sanders, not Trump, has a much higher ratio of white to non-white support within his party. Scott uses this to illustrate two points: 1) 'white' in political discussions often means the 'Red Tribe' rather than literal race, and 2) low minority representation in a group doesn't necessarily indicate racism. He suggests that Sanders' lack of minority support might be due to him being seen as a 'weird intellectual signaling-laden countercultural movement', similar to other groups with low minority representation like atheists or BDSM enthusiasts. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the unexpected success of political outsiders like Trump and Corbyn, attributing it to growing ideological polarization and anti-establishment sentiment. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the rise of outsider political figures like Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn, attributing their unexpected success to a growing trend of ideological polarization and distrust of the establishment. He argues that as the political spectrum widens, traditional politicians struggle to balance appealing to their base while remaining electable, creating an opening for candidates who signal their opposition to the establishment. The post compares Trump's and Corbyn's seemingly opposite yet similar rises to power, and suggests this trend might explain other political surprises like Bernie Sanders' popularity and Obama's 2008 victory over Hillary Clinton. Shorter summary