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Jul 26, 2024
acx

Your Book Review: Real Raw News

62 min • 8,560 words • 565 comments • 197 likes • podcast (47 min)
The review analyzes Real Raw News, a popular conspiracy theory website, examining its content, appeal, and implications in the context of modern media consumption and AI technology. Longer summary
This book review analyzes the website Real Raw News, a popular source of conspiracy theories and fake news stories centered around Donald Trump and his alleged secret war against the 'Deep State'. The reviewer examines the site's content, its narrative techniques, and its appeal to believers, drawing parallels to comic book lore and discussing the psychological needs it fulfills. The review also considers the broader implications of such conspiracy theories in the age of AI-generated content. Shorter summary
Jan 25, 2024
acx

The Psychopolitics Of Trauma

45 min • 6,161 words • 574 comments • 501 likes • podcast (35 min)
Scott Alexander proposes that political hyperpartisanship might be a form of trauma, comparing PTSD symptoms to behaviors observed in political extremists. Longer summary
Scott Alexander explores the idea that political extremism might be a form of trauma. He compares symptoms of PTSD to behaviors observed in politically hyperpartisan individuals, such as triggers, distorted cognitions, and hypervigilance. The post discusses how trapped priors in the brain might explain both cognitive and emotional aspects of political extremism. Scott also considers the implications of framing political partisanship as trauma, including potential risks of expanding the concept of trauma. Shorter summary
Jun 08, 2022
acx

Which Party Has Gotten More Extreme Faster?

23 min • 3,135 words • 1,112 comments • 162 likes • podcast (29 min)
Scott Alexander examines which US political party has become more extreme faster, concluding Democrats have moved further left on policy since 1994, while results vary for other aspects of extremism. Longer summary
Scott Alexander analyzes the question of which political party in the US has become more extreme faster, breaking it down into four sub-questions. He concludes that Democrats have moved further left on policy positions since 1994 than Republicans have moved right, based on survey data and first principles. On divergence from ordinary Americans, he calls it a tie. Regarding ideological purity, Republicans show more polarization in Congress, but it's unclear for average voters. Scott avoids declaring a winner on which party has become crazier in worldview and messaging. He argues the policy position change is most important, supporting the meme that Democrats have moved more extreme, while noting other interpretations could point to Republicans. Shorter summary
Oct 13, 2021
acx

Highlights From The Comments On Kids And Climate Change

39 min • 5,384 words • 561 comments • 91 likes • podcast (37 min)
Scott responds to various reader comments on his article about having children despite climate change, addressing critiques and expanding on several points. Longer summary
This post highlights and responds to various comments on Scott's previous article about having children despite climate change concerns. It covers topics such as the sincerity of climate concerns, political implications, carbon emissions by location, the severity of climate change impacts, and arguments for and against having children in the current climate context. Scott engages with these comments, offering additional insights, corrections, and reflections on the original arguments. Shorter summary
Sep 17, 2021
acx

Book Review: The Revolt Of The Public

33 min • 4,482 words • 434 comments • 100 likes • podcast (33 min)
Scott Alexander reviews 'The Revolt of the Public', a 2014 book that predicted the rise of social media-driven mass revolts against elites, finding its insights now obvious but acknowledging its prescience at the time of publication. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews Martin Gurri's 'The Revolt of the Public', a book from 2014 that predicted the rise of social media-connected masses revolting against elites. The book discusses various protest movements from 2011, including the Arab Spring and Occupy Wall Street, characterizing them as leaderless, nihilistic, and driven by privileged groups. Gurri argues that the internet broke down the government-media-academia elite axis, leading to a crisis of legitimacy. The review critically examines Gurri's thesis, noting that some predictions haven't fully materialized and suggesting that the left-right political divide may have partially stalled the 'revolt of the public'. Scott concludes that while the book was prescient when published, its insights are now obvious, making it less relevant today. Shorter summary
Sep 06, 2021
acx

Too Good To Check: A Play In Three Acts

19 min • 2,551 words • 865 comments • 325 likes • podcast (19 min)
Scott Alexander analyzes the evolving narrative around a news story about ivermectin overdoses in Oklahoma hospitals, illustrating how cognitive biases and media dynamics can distort information. Longer summary
Scott Alexander examines a news story about ivermectin overdoses overwhelming Oklahoma hospitals, showing how it evolved from a local news report to international coverage, and was then seemingly debunked. He uses this as a case study in cognitive biases, media narratives, and the difficulty of determining truth in polarized situations. The post is structured in three parts, each revealing a new layer of complexity and uncertainty in the story. Scott emphasizes the importance of skepticism and checking sources, even (or especially) when a story confirms one's existing beliefs. Shorter summary
Sep 04, 2019
ssc

List Of Passages I Highlighted In My Copy Of Ages Of Discord

10 min • 1,364 words • 53 comments • podcast (12 min)
Scott Alexander shares and comments on passages from Peter Turchin's 'Ages of Discord', exploring historical cycles of unity and polarization in American society. Longer summary
This post is a collection of highlighted passages from Peter Turchin's book 'Ages of Discord'. Scott Alexander discusses various historical examples of unity and polarization in American society, including demands for more partisanship in the 1940s, intense violence in Congress during the Civil War era, and the role of conflict with Native Americans in forging a common 'white' identity. The post also touches on the concept of 'elite overproduction' and its impact on political stability, and examines Turchin's use of word frequency analysis to track societal cooperation over time. Scott concludes by noting parallels between economic crises and shifts in prevailing economic doctrines. Shorter summary
Sep 02, 2019
ssc

Book Review: Ages Of Discord

48 min • 6,606 words • 315 comments • podcast (48 min)
Scott reviews 'Ages of Discord', which applies cyclic theories of civilizational rise and fall to modern America, finding the data interesting but the core theory questionable. Longer summary
Scott reviews Peter Turchin's book 'Ages of Discord', which attempts to apply the demographic-structural theory of civilizational cycles to modern America. The book presents data showing cyclic patterns in various societal indicators over the past 200+ years, including two main cycles: a long 150-year cycle of national growth and decline, and a shorter 40-60 year cycle of instability. Scott examines the data, theory, and potential problems with applying this pre-industrial model to a modern economy. While finding the data interesting, he is skeptical of some of the theoretical explanations and notes several issues with the arguments. He concludes that while the book provides some valuable concepts and historical information, its core cyclical theory remains questionable. Shorter summary
Feb 22, 2019
ssc

RIP Culture War Thread

44 min • 6,096 words • 69 comments • podcast (41 min)
Scott Alexander explains why the controversial Culture War thread was removed from r/slatestarcodex due to harassment, and discusses the challenges of hosting spaces for difficult conversations online. Longer summary
Scott Alexander explains why the Culture War thread on the r/slatestarcodex subreddit was shut down and moved to a new subreddit. He describes how the thread became a unique space for civil discussion of controversial topics, but also attracted harassment and threats against Scott personally. This led to a nervous breakdown and the decision to separate the thread from his blog. Scott uses this story to illustrate broader issues around hosting spaces for difficult conversations online, and the climate of fear and censorship that can result from harassment campaigns. Shorter summary
Jan 14, 2019
ssc

Too Many People Dare Call It Conspiracy

21 min • 2,801 words • 575 comments • podcast (44 min)
Scott Alexander explores the overuse of the term 'conspiracy theory' and provides heuristics for evaluating the plausibility of conspiratorial claims. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses the concept of conspiracy theories, arguing that the term is often overused and misapplied. He presents a list of various claims, ranging from political conspiracies to scientific misconduct, and analyzes which should be considered conspiracy theories. The post introduces the 'Basic Argument Against Conspiracy Theories' which states that large secret organizations are difficult to maintain without detection. Scott then applies this principle to various scenarios, showing how some seemingly conspiratorial ideas might not actually qualify as conspiracy theories. He concludes by offering heuristics for evaluating the plausibility of conspiracy claims, emphasizing that the size, secrecy, and self-interest of the groups involved are key factors to consider. Shorter summary
Oct 08, 2018
ssc

Kavanaugh: A Probability Poll

9 min • 1,179 words • 533 comments • podcast (11 min)
Scott Alexander analyzes a survey on readers' estimated probabilities of Kavanaugh's guilt, finding significant partisan differences and no clear consensus even with probabilistic thinking. Longer summary
Scott Alexander conducted a survey asking readers to estimate the probability of Judge Kavanaugh being guilty of sexually assaulting Dr. Ford. The post analyzes the results, breaking them down by political party, gender, and background knowledge. The average probability given was 52.64%, with significant partisan differences. The survey also explored whether respondents thought the accusations were sufficient to reject Kavanaugh's nomination. Scott notes that even when encouraged to think probabilistically, people's responses still showed strong partisan biases, and there was no clear consensus even among politically neutral respondents. Shorter summary
Jul 18, 2018
ssc

Fundamental Value Differences Are Not That Fundamental

25 min • 3,412 words • 706 comments • podcast (26 min)
Scott Alexander argues that fundamental value differences are less common and less aligned with political tribes than often assumed, emphasizing the need for coexistence despite varying values. Longer summary
Scott Alexander challenges the idea that fundamental value differences are a significant barrier to cooperation. He argues that many apparent value differences are actually factual disagreements or inconsistently applied principles. Using examples like foreign aid and immigration, he shows how people's values often shift based on context and convenience. Alexander suggests that while some fundamental value differences may exist, they don't necessarily align with political or cultural tribes. He concludes that since everyone has some value differences with everyone else, learning to coexist despite these differences is crucial. Shorter summary
Jun 21, 2017
ssc

Against Murderism

46 min • 6,392 words
Scott Alexander critiques the concept of 'racism' as an oversimplified explanation for complex issues, arguing for a more nuanced approach to understanding and addressing societal problems. Longer summary
Scott Alexander critiques the concept of 'racism' as a catch-all term that conflates different motives and beliefs, leading to ineffective discourse and polarization. He argues that treating racism as a simple explanation for complex issues prevents understanding root causes and finding effective solutions. The post uses an analogy of 'murderism' to illustrate how this approach is flawed, and suggests that breaking down racist actions into non-racist motives can lead to better outcomes. Scott emphasizes the importance of maintaining liberal values and open dialogue to prevent societal breakdown. Shorter summary
May 01, 2017
ssc

Neutral vs. Conservative: The Eternal Struggle

23 min • 3,180 words • 909 comments
Scott Alexander critiques an article on conservative 'tribal epistemology', arguing that liberal bias in supposedly neutral institutions has driven conservatives to create their own spaces, exacerbating polarization. Longer summary
Scott Alexander critiques David Roberts' article on the rise of 'tribal epistemology' among US conservatives. While agreeing with some points, Scott argues that Roberts underestimates conservative grievances against supposedly neutral institutions. He illustrates how these institutions, including academia and media, often display liberal bias while claiming neutrality. Scott explains that conservatives' exodus to their own spaces is a reaction to this bias, resulting in echo chambers on both sides. He suggests that this pattern repeats across various domains, from workplaces to scientific conferences. The post concludes by advocating for a different approach, implying that the current liberal bias in 'neutral' spaces is counterproductive and exacerbates polarization. Shorter summary
Apr 11, 2017
ssc

Sacred Principles As Exhaustible Resources

8 min • 1,046 words • 717 comments
Scott Alexander argues that overusing free speech to defend controversial figures may lead to a backlash against the principle itself, potentially depleting it as a societal resource. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses the potential negative consequences of invoking free speech to defend controversial speakers or ideas. He argues that while free speech should protect unpopular views, repeatedly using it to defend offensive content may lead to a backlash against the principle itself. The post compares respect for free speech to a commons that can be depleted if overused, especially in the context of growing partisanship. Scott warns that associating free speech primarily with conservative causes could turn it into a partisan issue, alienating liberals. He suggests that to preserve free speech, it should be invoked to defend liberal causes as well, preventing it from becoming solely associated with controversial right-wing figures. Shorter summary
Mar 24, 2017
ssc

Guided By The Beauty Of Our Weapons

45 min • 6,166 words • 181 comments • podcast (42 min)
Scott Alexander argues that true logical debate, rarely attempted, could be more effective in changing minds than commonly believed, and is necessary for long-term progress in distinguishing truth from falsehood. Longer summary
Scott Alexander critiques two articles arguing that facts and logic are ineffective in changing people's minds, especially regarding political issues. He contends that true debate, following specific conditions he outlines, is rarely attempted and could be more effective than assumed. He suggests that collaborative truth-seeking and adversarial collaborations could be powerful tools for the media. Alexander argues that logical debate is an asymmetric weapon favoring truth, unlike rhetoric or violence which can be used equally by all sides. He concludes that while improving debate quality is a slow process, it's necessary for long-term progress in distinguishing truth from falsehood. Shorter summary
Sep 28, 2016
ssc

SSC Endorses Clinton, Johnson, Or Stein

37 min • 5,167 words • 317 comments
Scott Alexander endorses Clinton (or Johnson/Stein in safe states) over Trump, citing concerns about Trump's unpredictability and potential negative impacts on conservatism and social dynamics. Longer summary
Scott Alexander endorses voting for Hillary Clinton in swing states, and Clinton, Johnson, or Stein in safe states. He argues against Donald Trump, not primarily on policy grounds, but because of Trump's unpredictability, potential for high-variance outcomes, and the damage he could do to conservatism and the fight against social justice extremism. Alexander expresses concerns about Trump's lack of concrete plans, his potential to radicalize the next generation towards the far left, and his movement's epistemic vices. He also touches on issues like global warming and immigration, urging readers to consider the long-term consequences of their vote. Shorter summary
Jul 27, 2016
ssc

Post-Partisanship Is Hyper-Partisanship

19 min • 2,639 words • 845 comments
Scott Alexander discusses how political groups can shift from outgroups to 'fargroups', leading to less hostility and more exoticization, and predicts this pattern may increase political in-fighting while reducing inter-party conflict. Longer summary
Scott Alexander explores the concept of 'fargroups' as opposed to outgroups, and how this distinction affects political discourse. He argues that as groups become less threatening, they transition from outgroups to fargroups, leading to exoticization rather than hostility. The post traces this pattern in the decline of atheism vs. religion debates and the rise of intra-party conflicts in American politics. Scott predicts that as political bubbles increase, opposing parties may become fargroups, while internal party factions become the new outgroups. He also notes a trend of sympathetic portrayals of Trump and Brexit supporters, suggesting they're transitioning to fargroup status for some progressives. Shorter summary
Apr 27, 2016
ssc

Book Review: Albion’s Seed

71 min • 9,826 words • 287 comments • podcast (71 min)
Scott reviews 'Albion's Seed' by David Fischer, exploring how four British cultural groups that settled colonial America shaped regional cultures and may still influence modern US political divisions. Longer summary
This post reviews David Fischer's book 'Albion's Seed', which examines four distinct British cultural groups that settled different regions of colonial America: the Puritans in New England, the Cavaliers in Virginia, the Quakers in Pennsylvania, and the Borderers in Appalachia. Scott explores how these groups' distinct values and practices shaped American regional cultures and may still influence modern political divisions. He discusses interesting facts about each group and speculates on how their legacies might relate to current 'Blue Tribe' and 'Red Tribe' cultural divides in the US. The post ends by wrestling with the implications of deep-rooted cultural differences for democracy and national unity. Shorter summary
Feb 08, 2016
ssc

Testimonials for SSC

14 min • 1,919 words • 572 comments
Scott Alexander shares a collection of mostly critical and often insulting testimonials about his blog Slate Star Codex, revealing the diverse and polarized reactions to his work. Longer summary
Scott Alexander shares a collection of testimonials and feedback he has received about his blog Slate Star Codex over three years. The post presents a wide range of opinions, many of which are highly critical, insulting, or dismissive. The feedback touches on various aspects of Scott's writing, personality, and the blog's community. Some comments praise his intelligence while criticizing his verbosity or political stance. Others mock his writing style, accuse him of censorship, or make personal attacks. The testimonials reveal the diverse and often polarized reactions to Scott's work, ranging from admiration to outright hostility. Shorter summary
Sep 22, 2015
ssc

Beware Systemic Change

29 min • 4,024 words • 871 comments
Scott Alexander argues that effective altruism should be wary of pursuing systemic change, as it risks wasting resources and alienating supporters. Longer summary
Scott Alexander expresses concerns about effective altruism focusing on systemic change rather than traditional charity. He argues that pursuing systemic change risks wasting resources on politically divisive issues, potentially making catastrophic errors, and alienating potential supporters. The post is structured as a dialogue between two viewpoints, followed by additional arguments. Scott concludes that effective altruism's focus on direct, quantifiable interventions is valuable and shouldn't be lost in pursuit of more politically charged systemic change. Shorter summary
Sep 03, 2015
ssc

Theses On Trump

10 min • 1,341 words • 781 comments
Scott Alexander analyzes the unexpected success of political outsiders like Trump and Corbyn, attributing it to growing ideological polarization and anti-establishment sentiment. Longer summary
Scott Alexander explores the rise of outsider political figures like Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn, attributing their unexpected success to a growing trend of ideological polarization and distrust of the establishment. He argues that as the political spectrum widens, traditional politicians struggle to balance appealing to their base while remaining electable, creating an opening for candidates who signal their opposition to the establishment. The post compares Trump's and Corbyn's seemingly opposite yet similar rises to power, and suggests this trend might explain other political surprises like Bernie Sanders' popularity and Obama's 2008 victory over Hillary Clinton. Shorter summary
Jun 14, 2015
ssc

Fearful Symmetry

49 min • 6,828 words • 505 comments
Scott Alexander examines the parallels between social justice and anti-social justice groups, arguing that shared experiences of perceived persecution could lead to better understanding and less conflict. Longer summary
Scott Alexander explores the similarities between social justice and anti-social justice narratives, showing how both groups often feel persecuted and develop similar defensive mechanisms. He argues that this shared experience of perceived threat, even when statistically unlikely, leads to hypervigilance and extreme reactions from both sides. Scott suggests that as both groups now face similar challenges, there may be an opportunity for mutual understanding and the development of protocols to prevent escalation. He advises against dismissing the fears of either side and proposes that recognizing the shared experience of fear could lead to more productive dialogue. Shorter summary
Oct 16, 2014
ssc

Five Case Studies On Politicization

42 min • 5,831 words • 824 comments
Scott Alexander examines how issues become politicized along tribal lines, preventing rational discussion and leading to counterproductive behaviors. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses how various issues become politicized and tied to tribal narratives, using examples like the Ebola quarantine debate, the Rotherham scandal, and climate change. He argues that when issues become referendums on tribal identity, it prevents rational discussion and leads to counterproductive behaviors. He suggests that framing issues in ways that respect out-group narratives could help, but notes this rarely happens due to media incentives. Shorter summary
Scott Alexander shares and briefly comments on various insightful quotes from Jonathan Haidt's 'The Righteous Mind', covering topics like psychology, politics, and religion. Longer summary
This post is a collection of quotes from Jonathan Haidt's book 'The Righteous Mind' that Scott Alexander found particularly interesting or insightful. The quotes cover a wide range of topics including human psychology, social behavior, political polarization, and the role of religion in society. Scott provides brief comments on some quotes, highlighting their relevance to his own thoughts or current societal issues. The post doesn't present a cohesive argument but rather serves as a collection of thought-provoking ideas from Haidt's work. Shorter summary