Scott Alexander explores the Median Voter Theorem, its limitations in real politics, and why recent US elections have been surprisingly close despite these complications. Longer summary

This post explores the Median Voter Theorem and its application in real-world politics. Scott first explains the theorem, which states that rational candidates will converge on the position of the median voter. He then discusses three reasons why this doesn't perfectly describe reality: primary elections, voter turnout, and party goals. Despite these complications, Scott notes that recent US elections have been surprisingly close to 50-50, suggesting some validity to the theorem. He explores how parties might target different median voters for different elections (House, Senate, Presidency) and considers how parties might adjust their positions in response to structural advantages. The post ends with questions about how quickly and effectively parties can shift their positions in response to changing political landscapes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines prediction markets suggesting that replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee could significantly improve the party's chances in the 2024 election. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets to assess whether replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee would improve the party's chances in the 2024 election. He finds that replacing Biden with Kamala Harris would be neutral to slightly positive, while replacing him with Gavin Newsom or a generic Democrat could increase their odds of winning by 10-15 percentage points. Scott discusses potential objections to these findings, examines his own previous skepticism about Biden's cognitive decline, and reflects on the implications for Democratic party leadership and decision-making. Shorter summary

A review of 'The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich' analyzes Hitler's rise to power, identifying key factors to recognize potential authoritarian threats. Longer summary

This review of William L. Shirer's 'The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich' focuses on Hitler's ascent to power in Germany, analyzing the key factors that enabled his success. The reviewer extracts five main characteristics of Hitler's approach: open illiberalism, strategic use of terror, building a 'second state' through organization, thriving in times of crisis, and securing financial backing. The review aims to provide insights for recognizing and preventing similar authoritarian threats in the future. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'History of the Fabian Society', examining how this socialist organization became influential and why its ideas were compelling in late 19th century Britain. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Edward Pease's 'History of the Fabian Society', exploring how this small group of socialist intellectuals became highly influential in British politics and beyond. The post examines the Fabian Society's origins, strategies, and reasons for success, while also analyzing the historical context that made their ideas so appealing at the time. Shorter summary

Scott examines claims that political parties should focus on base turnout rather than appealing to moderates, finding evidence that extreme candidates decrease turnout and swing voters matter. Longer summary

This post analyzes the claim that political parties should focus on turning out their base rather than appealing to moderates. Scott examines research and data on voter behavior, finding that extreme candidates tend to decrease turnout for their own party and that swing voters can be decisive in close elections. He concludes that the evidence does not support the 'win-by-extremism-turning-out-the-base' argument. While acknowledging that non-centrist candidates like Trump can win, Scott argues this is by appealing to new coalitions rather than just moving to ideological extremes. The post evaluates academic studies, exit polls, and analysis by political commentators to reach these conclusions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the tension between adopting voter-friendly strategies and maintaining intellectual rigor in political discourse, warning against sacrificing competent governance for electoral success. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the debate surrounding Hillary Clinton's campaign mistakes and potential changes for the Democratic Party. He argues that while certain approaches may be effective for winning elections, they might not be conducive to good governance. The post explores the tension between adopting strategies that appeal to voters and maintaining an epistemic culture that allows for competent leadership. Scott warns against political parties and media outlets fully embracing emotional appeals and simplistic messaging at the expense of factual, nuanced discourse. He suggests that most of the audience for online content and publications are not the general public, so these platforms should maintain higher standards of intellectual discourse. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes Trump's likely PR strategy as president, predicting a focus on symbolic 'job-saving' victories that will be effective in shaping public perception despite limited real impact. Longer summary

Scott Alexander expresses concern about Trump's PR strategy as president, focusing on highly publicized 'victories' in keeping jobs in the US. He argues that these will be largely symbolic, not scalable, and potentially corrupt, but effective in shaping public perception. Scott compares this to Batman's approach of personally fighting crime rather than using his resources for systemic change. He predicts that this strategy will be a central part of Trump's public relations over the next year, despite not significantly impacting overall job numbers. Shorter summary