How to explore Scott Alexander's work and his 1500+ blog posts? This unaffiliated fan website lets you sort and search through the whole codex. Enjoy!

See also Top Posts and All Tags.

Minutes:
Blog:
Year:
4622 tags
Show all filters
4 posts found
May 13, 2024
acx

Mantic Monday 5/13/24

37 min • 5,066 words • 146 comments • 52 likes • podcast (31 min)
Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including regulatory changes, platform pivots, and debates about the field's future. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting. He discusses the CFTC's move to further restrict prediction markets, Manifold Markets' pivot to a sweepstakes model, a superforecasting report on COVID-19 origins, and debates about the future and value of forecasting. The post also covers various prediction market probabilities on current events and links to other forecasting news. Shorter summary
Apr 09, 2024
acx

Highlights From The Comments On The Lab Leak Debate

131 min • 18,301 words • 761 comments • 120 likes • podcast (99 min)
Scott Alexander responds to comments on his COVID-19 origins debate post, addressing criticisms and maintaining his support for the zoonosis theory. Longer summary
Scott Alexander provides a detailed response to comments and criticisms of his previous post on the COVID-19 origins debate. He addresses arguments against zoonosis, clarifies misunderstandings, and discusses the methodologies used by various parties in the debate. He maintains his position favoring zoonosis over lab leak, while acknowledging the complexity of the issue and the ongoing nature of the debate. Shorter summary
Mar 28, 2024
acx

Practically-A-Book Review: Rootclaim $100,000 Lab Leak Debate

132 min • 18,357 words • 905 comments • 369 likes • podcast (95 min)
Scott Alexander reviews a $100,000 debate on COVID-19 origins, where the zoonotic hypothesis unexpectedly won against the lab leak theory. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews a debate on the origins of COVID-19 between Saar Wilf, who supports the lab leak hypothesis, and Peter Miller, who argues for zoonotic origin. The debate was part of a $100,000 challenge by Wilf's Rootclaim project. Miller won decisively, with both judges ruling in favor of zoonotic origin. Alexander analyzes the debate format, arguments, and aftermath, discussing issues with Bayesian reasoning, extreme probabilities, and the challenges of resolving complex scientific questions through debate. Shorter summary
Jul 30, 2022
acx

Your Book Review: Viral

52 min • 7,254 words • 376 comments • 101 likes • podcast (44 min)
A review of 'Viral' by Chan and Ridley explores competing hypotheses about COVID-19's origins, critiquing institutional responses and emphasizing ongoing uncertainty. Longer summary
This book review discusses 'Viral' by Alina Chan and Matt Ridley, which explores the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reviewer summarizes key points from the book, including evidence for both natural and lab leak hypotheses, the history of lab leaks, the relevance of Wuhan's location, and criticisms of institutional responses. The review also covers technical evidence and debates around it, while emphasizing the reviewer's uncertainty about the pandemic's true origin. The author concludes by reflecting on the role of amateur researchers and the importance of scientific self-correction. Shorter summary