Scott Alexander discusses the political battle over California's AI safety bill SB 1047, its veto by Governor Newsom, and the implications for future AI regulation efforts. Longer summary

This post recounts the story behind SB 1047, a California bill aimed at regulating AI safety that was passed by the legislature but vetoed by Governor Newsom. Scott discusses the bill's supporters and opponents, the political maneuvering involved, and the aftermath of the veto. He analyzes the reasons for the veto, suggesting it was influenced by Silicon Valley donors and interests. The post also explores potential future strategies for AI regulation advocates, including possible alliances with left-wing groups. Scott concludes with reasons for optimism despite the setback, noting growing public support for AI regulation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander proposes a scaled-up voting guide project for major US cities, outlining a process for local ACX meetup groups to create and submit ballot recommendations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces a plan to scale up his annual voting guide by producing voter guides for major US cities with a significant ACX readership. He outlines a process where local meetup groups will research and agree on recommendations for their ballots, focusing on downballot races and local issues. The post provides guidelines for organizers, including how to structure recommendations, handle disagreements, and determine voting choices. Scott emphasizes that the guides should reflect the ACX political position of 'centrist with progressive and libertarian sympathies' and invites participation from established meetup groups outside the listed cities. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces an irregular classifieds thread for ACX readers to post advertisements in various categories, with guidelines and related resources. Longer summary

This post announces the irregular classifieds thread on Astral Codex Ten, providing a space for readers to advertise various things in the comments. The post outlines categories for advertisements including Employment, Dating, Read My Blog, Consume My Product/Service, Meetup, and Other. It emphasizes the need to post under the appropriate category and asks for kindness, especially towards dating ads. The post also includes links to potentially related resources such as job boards, internship listings, dating documents, and meetup finders. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to reader comments on his article about Matt Yglesias and Nietzschean philosophy, exploring various perspectives on master and slave morality. Longer summary

This post highlights comments on Scott Alexander's article about Matt Yglesias and Nietzschean philosophy. It covers various perspectives on master and slave morality, critiques of different thinkers mentioned in the original post, and other related topics. The comments explore nuances in Nietzsche's philosophy, discuss the applicability of these concepts to modern society, and debate the merits of different moral frameworks. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that altruism and vitalism mostly align in practice, and that focusing on their theoretical divergences often stems from signaling rather than genuine pursuit of societal improvement. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to critiques of his understanding of the Nietzschean objection to altruism, particularly the idea that vitalism (maximizing life, glory, and strength) is superior. He argues that in most normal cases, altruism and vitalism suggest the same solutions, and their apparent divergence only occurs in extreme, unrealistic scenarios. Scott suggests that both philosophies, when taken to extremes, lead to absurd outcomes. He expresses suspicion towards those who focus too much on the divergence between altruism and vitalism in normal cases, arguing that such focus often stems from a desire to signal toughness rather than genuinely pursuing societal strength. The post concludes by challenging vitalists to 'pretend to really try' in implementing their philosophy, suggesting that this would likely lead to outcomes similar to those pursued by altruists. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines Nietzsche's concepts of 'master morality' and 'slave morality', analyzing their modern manifestations and exploring potential compromises between these opposing moral frameworks. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concepts of 'master morality' and 'slave morality' introduced by Nietzsche, analyzing their manifestations in modern society and various ideologies. He discusses how these moral frameworks are reflected in figures like Ayn Rand, Andrew Tate, and Matt Yglesias, as well as in movements like effective altruism. The post examines the tensions between these moral systems and attempts to find a balance or transcendence of the dichotomy, ultimately suggesting that a cyclical, civilization-building approach might offer a meaningful compromise. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques Lyman Stone's arguments against Effective Altruism, defending the movement's impact, methodology, and philosophical foundations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Lyman Stone's critique of Effective Altruism (EA), addressing several key arguments. He points out flaws in Stone's methodology for evaluating EA's impact on charitable giving, explains why EA focuses on diverse causes, defends the value of research and white-collar work in philanthropy, argues against the suggestion of extreme measures like terrorism, and discusses the philosophical foundations of caring about animal welfare. Scott also refutes the claim that EA ideas are unoriginal, highlighting the movement's unique aspects and its role as a social technology for promoting altruistic behavior. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including regulatory changes, platform pivots, and debates about the field's future. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting. He discusses the CFTC's move to further restrict prediction markets, Manifold Markets' pivot to a sweepstakes model, a superforecasting report on COVID-19 origins, and debates about the future and value of forecasting. The post also covers various prediction market probabilities on current events and links to other forecasting news. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces the winners of ACX Grants 2024, covering a diverse range of projects from medical research to policy advocacy. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the results of the ACX Grants 2024, detailing the winners and their projects. The grants cover a wide range of areas including medical research, technology development, policy advocacy, and scientific studies. Scott explains the selection process, acknowledges contributors, and mentions future plans for the grants program. He also discusses how Manifund will handle payments and create an impact market for unfunded projects. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines how investigative journalism can target unpopular individuals or groups, using recent examples to illustrate the potential chilling effects and biases in media coverage. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses how investigative journalism can be used as a weapon against individuals or groups who become unpopular or controversial. He cites three examples: the plagiarism accusations against Claudine Gay, the investigation into Neri Oxman, and the negative coverage of effective altruism after the FTX scandal. Scott argues that journalists tend to dig up old scandals or minor misdeeds when a person or group becomes unpopular, creating a chilling effect. He contrasts this with his ideal of journalism comforting the afflicted and afflicting the comfortable. Scott also relates this to his personal experience with negative media coverage and concludes by connecting this phenomenon to his previous article on not learning too much from dramatic events. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues against significantly updating beliefs based on single dramatic events, advocating for consistent policies based on pre-existing probability distributions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against dramatically updating one's beliefs based on single events, even if they are significant. He contends that a good Bayesian should have distributions for various events and only make small updates when they occur. The post covers several examples, including COVID-19 origin theories, 9/11, mass shootings, sexual harassment scandals, and crises in the effective altruism movement. Scott suggests that while dramatic events can be useful for coordination and activism, they shouldn't significantly alter our understanding of underlying probabilities. He advocates for predicting distributions beforehand and maintaining consistent policies rather than overreacting to individual incidents. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his capitalism vs charity post, clarifying his argument and addressing various counterpoints and suggested capitalist charities. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his previous post about capitalism and charity. He clarifies that he's discussing a specific near-mode situation of how to best use a limited amount of money for improving human welfare, not running a 'Moral Worth Tournament' between capitalism and charity. He addresses arguments for investing in capitalism over charity, discussing issues like compounding returns, marginal utility, and the eventual need for consumption. Scott also explores specific capitalist charities suggested by commenters, including charter cities and microfinance, noting the lack of strong empirical evidence for many of these interventions. He concludes by stating what kind of evidence would change his mind on this topic. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander compares the marginal impact of capitalism vs. charity, finding that traditional charity often seems more effective despite capitalism's historical success. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the question of whether capitalism is more effective than charity in helping others. He compares the impact of investing in a successful company like Instacart to donating to a highly effective charity like Dispensers For Safe Water. While acknowledging capitalism's overall historical success, Scott argues that at the margin, traditional charity often seems to have a greater direct impact. He examines potential second-order effects of capitalism but finds them insufficient to clearly outweigh charity's benefits. The post concludes by considering alternative capitalist-oriented charitable approaches, such as development aid or charter cities, but notes the lack of rigorous evaluation for these options. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces the 2024 ACX Grants program, detailing its structure, funding, and new optional 'impact market' component for charitable and scientific projects. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the 2024 ACX Grants program, a microgrants initiative to fund charitable or scientific projects. He explains the program's structure, including a partnership with Manifund, the funding amount ($320,000 total), timeline, application process, and types of projects likely to be funded. This year introduces an optional 'impact market' component, allowing unfunded projects to seek alternative funding through impact certificates. Scott also discusses the benefits of winning a grant beyond the monetary aspect and touches on tax implications. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander defends effective altruism against Freddie deBoer's criticism, arguing for its distinctiveness, practical value, and positive marginal effects. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Freddie deBoer's criticism of effective altruism (EA) as a 'shell game'. He argues that EA can be defined distinctly from universally-held beliefs, serves as a social technology to encourage charitable action, and is composed of valuable organizations. Scott also discusses the challenges of categorizing ideological movements, suggests judging movements by their marginal effects, and defends EA's focus on both widely accepted and more controversial causes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander defends effective altruism by highlighting its major accomplishments and arguing that its occasional missteps are outweighed by its positive impact on the world. Longer summary

Scott Alexander defends effective altruism (EA) against recent criticisms, highlighting its accomplishments in global health, animal welfare, AI safety, and other areas. He argues that EA has saved around 200,000 lives, equivalent to ending gun violence, curing AIDS, and preventing a 9/11-scale attack in the US. Scott contends that EA's achievements are often overlooked because they focus on less publicized causes, and that the movement's occasional missteps are minor compared to its positive impact. He emphasizes that EA is a coalition of people who care about logically analyzing important causes, whether broadly popular or not, and encourages readers to investigate and support the most beneficial causes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander recounts his experience donating a kidney, from initial motivation to post-surgery recovery, while discussing the broader context of organ donation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander describes his journey to donate a kidney, including his motivations, the medical process, and the challenges he faced. He discusses the effectiveness of kidney donation compared to other forms of altruism, the stigma around mental health in the donation process, and the need for systemic changes to address the kidney shortage. Scott also reflects on the experience of the surgery and recovery, and encourages others to consider donation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews the results of the Impact Market Mini-Grants test run, discussing the top projects and lessons learned about this novel charitable funding method. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reports on the results of the Impact Market Mini-Grants, a novel way of running charitable grants where investors fund promising projects and grantmakers buy credit for successes. The test run involved 18 forecasting-related projects, with judges assessing their final value. Most projects lost money for investors, but a few were highly successful. Scott discusses the top five projects, including a rationality education program at the University of Maryland, a forecasting tournament, a tool for making Kelly-optimal bets, a paper on forecasting long-term impacts, and an ambitious impact assessment project in India. He reflects on the lessons learned from this experiment, noting both successes and challenges in implementing the impact market concept. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews a debate on AI development pauses, discussing various strategies and their potential impacts on AI safety and progress. Longer summary

Scott Alexander summarizes a debate on pausing AI development, outlining five main strategies discussed: Simple Pause, Surgical Pause, Regulatory Pause, Total Stop, and No Pause. He explains the arguments for and against each approach, including considerations like compute overhang, international competition, and the potential for regulatory overreach. The post also covers additional perspectives from debate participants and Scott's own thoughts on the feasibility and implications of various pause strategies. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews the second issue of Asterisk magazine, which focuses on food-related topics in rationalist and effective altruist contexts. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the second issue of Asterisk, a rationalist/effective altruist magazine focused on food. He provides brief summaries of various articles in the issue, including reviews of books on animal justice, critiques of the Green Revolution, discussions on plant-based meat, tofu in America, nutrition misinformation, and cultivated meat. He also mentions articles on pandemic prediction, feeding the world during nuclear winter, animal welfare, and oral rehydration therapy. Scott praises the magazine and its team, encouraging readers to subscribe. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander satirizes media coverage of Effective Altruism by applying similar reporting tactics to other causes and movements. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a satirical piece mimicking media reporting on Effective Altruism by applying similar rhetorical techniques to other topics and movements. He creates fictional news stories about climate change, political activism, drunk driving prevention, and other causes, using logical fallacies, misrepresentations, and sensationalism to mock how media often portrays Effective Altruism. The post highlights how these reporting tactics can unfairly discredit or misrepresent important causes and movements. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces the launch of Asterisk Magazine, highlighting various articles from its first issue, including his own piece on wine tasting. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the launch of Asterisk Magazine, a new rationalist / effective altruist publication. He lists several articles from the first issue, including his own piece titled 'Is Wine Fake?'. The post briefly describes each article's content and author. Scott also mentions hosting a launch party where he challenged attendees to figure out the kabbalistic significance of the foods served, revealing that one item was a white wine dyed red, referencing his article on wine tasting. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets on Twitter, FTX, effective altruism, and US midterms, discussing their accuracy and exploring the concept of 'scandal markets'. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent prediction markets on Manifold and other platforms, focusing on topics like Twitter's future under Elon Musk, the FTX scandal and its impact on effective altruism, and the 2022 US midterm elections. He analyzes the accuracy of different prediction markets and polling aggregators, and explores the potential benefits and risks of 'scandal markets' for public figures. The post also touches on regulatory challenges for prediction markets and some interesting market observations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a satirical account of a Bay Area house party, showcasing absurd startup ideas and intellectual discussions that parody Silicon Valley culture. Longer summary

Scott Alexander describes another fictional Bay Area house party, filled with eccentric characters pitching outlandish startup ideas and discussing bizarre theories. The narrative weaves through conversations about AI-generated myths, financial communication through rap, the future of human thought in the age of AI, Wikipedia editing dilemmas, extreme urban planning ideas, and ethical considerations in organ donation. The story satirizes Silicon Valley culture, startup mentality, and various intellectual subcultures. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 40 diverse and intriguing links and news items from September 2022, covering topics from AI advancements to political analysis and cultural observations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a collection of 40 interesting links and news items from September 2022. The topics range from AI developments and their implications, to political analysis, scientific discoveries, and cultural observations. He covers subjects like image generation AI, conspiracy theories, the political situation in South Africa, nuclear power in California, and language models' capabilities. The post also includes personal anecdotes, book reviews, and interesting statistical findings. Shorter summary