Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to reader comments on his Elon Musk book review, covering various aspects of Musk's life, work, and personality. Longer summary

This post is a compilation of highlights from comments on Scott Alexander's review of Elon Musk's biography. It covers various aspects of Musk's career and personality, including debates about his intelligence and mental health, discussions about his companies (Tesla, Twitter, SpaceX, Boring Company), his Mars colonization plans, and comparisons to other historical figures. The post also includes critiques of Scott's original review and updates to his views based on the comments. Shorter summary

Scott reviews Ashlee Vance's 2015 Elon Musk biography, analyzing Musk's personality, work ethic, and business strategies to understand his successes and controversies. Longer summary

This book review analyzes Ashlee Vance's 2015 biography of Elon Musk, examining Musk's personality, work ethic, and business strategies. The review explores Musk's engineering abilities, management style, and the reasons behind his companies' successes despite controversial decisions. It discusses Musk's intense focus, his tendency to set unrealistic timelines, and his impact on employees. The review also touches on Musk's social skills, his approach to PR, and speculates on his future success with Twitter/X. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques Elon Musk's xAI alignment strategy of creating a 'maximally curious' AI, arguing it's both unfeasible and potentially dangerous. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques Elon Musk's alignment strategy for xAI, which aims to create a 'maximally curious' AI. He argues that this approach is both unfeasible and potentially dangerous. Scott points out that a curious AI might not prioritize human welfare and could lead to unintended consequences. He also explains that current AI technology cannot reliably implement such specific goals. The post suggests that focusing on getting AIs to follow orders reliably should be the priority, rather than deciding on a single guiding principle now. Scott appreciates Musk's intention to avoid programming specific morality into AI but believes the proposed solution is flawed. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets on Twitter, FTX, effective altruism, and US midterms, discussing their accuracy and exploring the concept of 'scandal markets'. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent prediction markets on Manifold and other platforms, focusing on topics like Twitter's future under Elon Musk, the FTX scandal and its impact on effective altruism, and the 2022 US midterm elections. He analyzes the accuracy of different prediction markets and polling aggregators, and explores the potential benefits and risks of 'scandal markets' for public figures. The post also touches on regulatory challenges for prediction markets and some interesting market observations. Shorter summary

The post examines prediction markets for Trump's 2024 chances, Musk's Twitter deal, and the impact of the Dobbs decision, while also discussing new forecasting initiatives and other current events. Longer summary

This Mantic Monday post covers several current events and their related prediction markets. It starts with Trump's chances for the 2024 GOP nomination, which remain high despite recent scandals. The post then discusses the new Swift Centre for Applied Forecasting, funded by the Future Fund. It examines prediction markets for Elon Musk's Twitter deal, showing low chances of completion. The post analyzes the impact of the Dobbs decision on Democrats' Senate chances, noting a puzzling delay in market reactions. Finally, it covers various other forecasting topics, including COVID-19 ensemble models, the race to replace Boris Johnson, and predictions about the East African Federation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews recent predictions and forecasts on topics including monkeypox, the Ukraine war, AI development, and US politics. Longer summary

This Mantic Monday post covers several topics in prediction markets and forecasting, including monkeypox predictions, updates on the Ukraine-Russia war, AI development forecasts, Elon Musk's potential Twitter acquisition, and various political predictions. Scott discusses Metaculus predictions for monkeypox cases, analyzes forecasts for the Ukraine conflict, examines AI capability predictions in response to a bet between Elon Musk and Gary Marcus, and reviews predictions for US elections and other current events. The post also includes updates on prediction market platforms and recent articles about forecasting. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines which US political party has become more extreme faster, concluding Democrats have moved further left on policy since 1994, while results vary for other aspects of extremism. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the question of which political party in the US has become more extreme faster, breaking it down into four sub-questions. He concludes that Democrats have moved further left on policy positions since 1994 than Republicans have moved right, based on survey data and first principles. On divergence from ordinary Americans, he calls it a tie. Regarding ideological purity, Republicans show more polarization in Congress, but it's unclear for average voters. Scott avoids declaring a winner on which party has become crazier in worldview and messaging. He argues the policy position change is most important, supporting the meme that Democrats have moved more extreme, while noting other interpretations could point to Republicans. Shorter summary

Scott reviews recent changes in prediction markets covering the Ukraine war, nuclear risk, AI development, and other current events. Longer summary

This post covers several prediction markets and forecasts related to current events. It discusses changes in Ukraine war predictions, nuclear risk estimates, AI development timelines, and other topics like Elon Musk's Twitter acquisition and the French presidential election. Scott analyzes discrepancies between different forecasts and markets, and explores potential reasons for changes in predictions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that OpenAI's open-source strategy for AI development could be dangerous, potentially risking human extinction if AI progresses rapidly. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques OpenAI's strategy of making AI research open-source, arguing it could be dangerous if AI develops rapidly. He compares it to giving nuclear weapon plans to everyone, potentially leading to catastrophe. The post analyzes the risks and benefits of open AI, discusses the potential for a hard takeoff in AI development, and examines the AI control problem. Scott expresses concern that competition in AI development may be forcing desperate strategies, potentially risking human extinction. Shorter summary