Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including regulatory issues, new platforms, and current market probabilities on various topics. Longer summary

This post covers several topics in the world of forecasting and prediction markets. It starts with an update on Kalshi's request to the CFTC for permission to create prediction markets about upcoming elections, discussing the public comments received. The post then announces the Manifest 2023 conference on forecasting and prediction markets. It discusses prediction markets related to a potential room temperature superconductor discovery, and how these markets are being used to track the developing story. The post also covers PredictIt's legal battle with the CFTC, the use of forecasting technology in finance, new forecasting platforms like Fatebook and The Base Rate Times, and several current prediction market probabilities on various topics. It concludes with some short notes on recent developments in the forecasting world. Shorter summary