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study critique (270)
book review (221)
AI (112)
economics (105)
effective altruism (105)
education (93)
creative writing (91)
debate (89)
forecasting (89)
politics (89)
prediction markets (88)
science (85)
AI safety (79)
media criticism (76)
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domain: slatestarcodex.com (1127 posts)
domain: wikipedia.org (896 posts)
domain: astralcodexten.com (560 posts)
domain: lesswrong.com (491 posts)
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domain: nih.gov (333 posts)
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2 posts
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forecasting (89) Eliezer Yudkowsky (46) AI development (23) AI timelines (7) prediction accuracy (4) compute requirements (4) scaling laws (3) Ajeya Cotra (2) Tom Davidson (2)

What Happened With Bio Anchors?

Scott explains why Ajeya Cotra's influential 'Biological Anchors' report correctly predicted the AI scaling boom but got AGI timelines wrong by twenty years, due to severely underestimating the rate of algorithmic progress.

acx
Feb 12, 2026 4,045 words 182 likes 269 comments Listen · 25 min Read Read
forecasting (89) AI safety (79) OpenAI (31) AI development (23) compute requirements (4) AI research (2) economic modeling (2) Tom Davidson (2)

Davidson On Takeoff Speeds

Scott Alexander reviews Tom Davidson's model predicting AI will progress from automating 20% of jobs to superintelligence in about 4 years, discussing its implications and comparisons to other AI forecasts.

acx
Jun 20, 2023 6,222 words 109 likes 421 comments Listen · 40 min Read Read
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