Scott Alexander examines why conservative political victories seem to cause public opinion backlashes while liberal victories don't, presenting several theories but remaining uncertain. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the phenomenon of political backlash following major policy victories, comparing conservative and liberal wins. He notes strong backlashes against conservative victories like Trump's presidency and the overturning of Roe v. Wade, but observes little to no backlash against liberal victories such as the legalization of gay marriage or the passage of Obamacare. The post presents several possible explanations for this asymmetry, including media influence, the perceived direction of history, and the visibility of immediate negative consequences. However, Scott remains uncertain about the true cause and the predictability of such backlashes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines how Trump's presidency has unexpectedly decreased support for his own policies, analyzing polls and proposing several explanations for this counterintuitive trend. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes how Donald Trump's presidency has paradoxically led to a decrease in support for his own political positions. The post presents several polls showing increased support for free trade, immigration, and other non-Trumpist positions since 2016. Scott proposes various explanations for this phenomenon, including disgust with Trump as a person, partisan realignment, conservatives distancing themselves from Trump, increased media focus on negative aspects of Trump's policies, shifting of goalposts, and backlash effects similar to those seen in studies of disruptive protests. He concludes by emphasizing the importance of civility and honesty in politics, warning that being sufficiently repulsive can damage one's own cause. Shorter summary