Scott Alexander investigates the reasons behind the extreme poverty in California's Central Valley, comparing it to Mississippi and analyzing various contributing factors. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the economic decline of California's Central Valley, comparing it to Mississippi in terms of poverty. He investigates various factors contributing to the region's struggles, including agricultural practices, immigration patterns, mechanization, and environmental issues. The post analyzes historical data, local perspectives, and economic indicators to understand when and why the Central Valley's situation deteriorated, concluding that while the causes are complex and not fully clear, the region's poverty is a stark contrast to California's overall wealth. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that underpopulation concerns are overstated and likely irrelevant due to expected technological changes by 2100. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against worries about underpopulation, stating that while there may be some demographic shifts and challenges, they are not as dire as some claim. He presents data showing global population will continue to grow until 2100, and even countries with declining populations will still have substantial numbers. He discusses potential issues like age pyramid concerns and innovation slowdowns, but argues these are either manageable or likely to be overshadowed by technological changes. Scott concludes that long-term population projections are largely irrelevant due to the likelihood of transformative technological changes before 2100. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander humorously reviews the 26 candidates for California governor in 2022, highlighting their diverse backgrounds and unconventional policy ideas. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the 26 candidates for California governor in 2022, providing humorous and insightful commentary on each candidate's background, policies, and campaign style. He covers a wide range of candidates, from established politicians to small business owners, immigrants, and even a former poet laureate. The post highlights the diversity of candidates and their often unconventional approaches to addressing California's issues, particularly homelessness. Scott concludes by expressing admiration for the candidates' spirit of optimism and civic engagement, seeing them as a positive sign for American democracy despite their slim chances of winning. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that Jewish overachievement is real and deserves continued study, countering Noah Smith's attempt to downplay its significance. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Noah Smith's article questioning whether Jews are really disproportionately successful. Scott argues that Jewish success is real and not fully explained by selective immigration or other factors Noah proposed. He examines historical evidence on Jewish immigration, compares Jewish achievement to urbanization rates, and discusses data on Jewish success in various fields. Scott concludes that Jewish overachievement remains an interesting and important phenomenon to study, potentially offering insights into genetics or cultural factors that could be broadly beneficial if understood. Shorter summary

Scott reviews 'Ages of Discord', which applies cyclic theories of civilizational rise and fall to modern America, finding the data interesting but the core theory questionable. Longer summary

Scott reviews Peter Turchin's book 'Ages of Discord', which attempts to apply the demographic-structural theory of civilizational cycles to modern America. The book presents data showing cyclic patterns in various societal indicators over the past 200+ years, including two main cycles: a long 150-year cycle of national growth and decline, and a shorter 40-60 year cycle of instability. Scott examines the data, theory, and potential problems with applying this pre-industrial model to a modern economy. While finding the data interesting, he is skeptical of some of the theoretical explanations and notes several issues with the arguments. He concludes that while the book provides some valuable concepts and historical information, its core cyclical theory remains questionable. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents multiple satirical scenarios of 'two wolves and a sheep deciding what to have for dinner' to critique various aspects of democracy and political behavior. Longer summary

This post is a satirical take on democracy using the metaphor of 'two wolves and a sheep deciding what to have for dinner'. Scott Alexander presents multiple variations of this scenario, each highlighting different aspects of democratic systems, political behavior, and societal issues. The scenarios touch on topics such as the electoral college, political pandering, deficit spending, voting against self-interest, special interests, fact-checking, immigration, compromise, foreign interference, Brexit-like situations, and coalition politics. The tone is humorous and ironic, using the wolf-sheep dynamic to illustrate various critiques of democratic processes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander compares two contrasting models of how social movements gain or lose respectability, using examples from gay rights and environmental issues to explore their implications. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of 'respectability cascades' in social movements, comparing two contrasting models. The first model, exemplified by the gay rights movement, suggests that when less respectable individuals publicly support a cause, it gradually becomes more acceptable for increasingly respectable people to join. The second model, illustrated by issues like endocrine disruptors and immigration, suggests that when disreputable people champion a cause, it becomes toxic and respectable people avoid it. Scott discusses the strategic implications of these models, particularly for his own interest in protecting scientific integrity from regressive leftism. He considers various factors that might determine which model applies in a given situation, such as the initial level of taboo, the likeability of supporters, and the availability of alternatives for supporters. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander proposes viewing culture as a fourth branch of government to highlight its importance in societal function and governance. Longer summary

Scott Alexander proposes a thought experiment where culture is considered the fourth branch of government alongside executive, legislative, and judicial branches. This 'refactoring' of how we view culture helps to understand its importance in societal function and governance. He illustrates this concept through examples such as nation-building efforts in Iraq, the governance of hunter-gatherer societies, and debates about censorship and immigration. The post suggests that this perspective could clarify discussions about libertarianism, free speech, and the role of cultural norms in society. While acknowledging the idea is hypothetical, Scott argues it serves as a useful counter to overlooking the significance of culture in governance and social structures. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines how Trump's presidency has unexpectedly decreased support for his own policies, analyzing polls and proposing several explanations for this counterintuitive trend. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes how Donald Trump's presidency has paradoxically led to a decrease in support for his own political positions. The post presents several polls showing increased support for free trade, immigration, and other non-Trumpist positions since 2016. Scott proposes various explanations for this phenomenon, including disgust with Trump as a person, partisan realignment, conservatives distancing themselves from Trump, increased media focus on negative aspects of Trump's policies, shifting of goalposts, and backlash effects similar to those seen in studies of disruptive protests. He concludes by emphasizing the importance of civility and honesty in politics, warning that being sufficiently repulsive can damage one's own cause. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that fundamental value differences are less common and less aligned with political tribes than often assumed, emphasizing the need for coexistence despite varying values. Longer summary

Scott Alexander challenges the idea that fundamental value differences are a significant barrier to cooperation. He argues that many apparent value differences are actually factual disagreements or inconsistently applied principles. Using examples like foreign aid and immigration, he shows how people's values often shift based on context and convenience. Alexander suggests that while some fundamental value differences may exist, they don't necessarily align with political or cultural tribes. He concludes that since everyone has some value differences with everyone else, learning to coexist despite these differences is crucial. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander endorses Clinton (or Johnson/Stein in safe states) over Trump, citing concerns about Trump's unpredictability and potential negative impacts on conservatism and social dynamics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander endorses voting for Hillary Clinton in swing states, and Clinton, Johnson, or Stein in safe states. He argues against Donald Trump, not primarily on policy grounds, but because of Trump's unpredictability, potential for high-variance outcomes, and the damage he could do to conservatism and the fight against social justice extremism. Alexander expresses concerns about Trump's lack of concrete plans, his potential to radicalize the next generation towards the far left, and his movement's epistemic vices. He also touches on issues like global warming and immigration, urging readers to consider the long-term consequences of their vote. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander dissects and criticizes Breitbart's misleading use of statistics about illegal immigrant crime, emphasizing the need for better understanding and interpretation of data in political debates. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques a Breitbart article about illegal immigrant crime statistics, pointing out numerous flaws in their reasoning and use of data. He highlights how the article misinterprets or misrepresents statistics, fails to provide necessary context, and makes illogical conclusions. Scott argues that while there may be legitimate concerns about illegal immigration, the article's approach is misleading and unhelpful. He concludes by emphasizing the importance of recognizing flawed arguments on both sides of political debates, rather than assuming one's opponents are simply gullible. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Hive Mind' by Garett Jones, which argues that national IQ matters more for economic success than individual IQ, while raising several criticisms of the book's methodology and conclusions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Garett Jones' book 'Hive Mind', which explores the hypothesis that a nation's average IQ matters more for its economic success than individual IQs. The book presents various studies and theories to support this idea, including how high-IQ individuals are better at cooperation and long-term thinking. Scott finds the book interesting but raises several criticisms, including questions about the direction of causality between IQ and development, and how the findings from small-scale experiments might apply to real-world nations. Shorter summary

Scott shares a diverse collection of interesting links and brief commentary on topics including linguistics, science, economics, and social issues. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and brief commentary on various topics. Scott covers subjects ranging from linguistics and philosophy to scientific discoveries and social issues. He discusses recent research on evolution, cold fusion claims, autism theories, and dark matter detection. The post also touches on economic topics like immigration effects and living costs in major cities. Scott includes some humorous content and critiques of social policies in countries like Saudi Arabia. The tone is informative and slightly humorous, with Scott offering brief personal opinions on some of the topics discussed. Shorter summary

The post provides a comprehensive overview of Reactionary philosophy and its critiques of modern progressive society, attempting to present these controversial ideas fairly for the sake of debate. Longer summary

This post provides a comprehensive overview of Reactionary philosophy, presenting its arguments against modern progressive society and in favor of traditional values and governance structures. The author explains Reactionary critiques of democracy, diversity, feminism, and other progressive ideals, and presents Reactionary arguments for monarchy, cultural unity, and traditional gender roles. The post covers topics like race, colonialism, and immigration from a Reactionary perspective. While not endorsing these views, the author attempts to present them fairly to encourage debate and examination of commonly held progressive assumptions. Shorter summary