Scott examines Fukuyama's defense of liberalism as enabling tight-knit communities, and argues that economic constraints are what prevent more people from forming such communities today. Longer summary

Francis Fukuyama argues that liberalism isn't opposed to community but rather serves as a platform where different communities can thrive. Scott analyzes this claim by examining existing tight-knit communities in America, from the Amish to rationalists, noting they are exceptions rather than the rule. He suggests that economic constraints are the main barrier preventing more people from forming such communities, and argues that increased material abundance could enable more community-building. The post ends by connecting this to post-singularity scenarios, suggesting that economic freedom could allow people to form meaningful communities more easily. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines how public predictions are judged over time, using examples like Nostradamus and Fukuyama to illustrate common pitfalls and offer advice on making predictions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the phenomenon of how people's predictions are judged over time, using Nostradamus and Francis Fukuyama as contrasting examples. He discusses how Nostradamus's vague prophecies are often interpreted as accurate in hindsight, while Fukuyama's 'end of history' thesis is frequently declared wrong whenever significant events occur. The post then analyzes other public figures' predictions and their reception, before offering advice on how to make predictions that won't damage one's credibility or cause personal misery. Scott concludes by acknowledging that he wants to make more predictions himself, while warning aspiring thought leaders about the challenges of public prediction-making. Shorter summary