The review examines 'Lying for Money' by Dan Davies, which explores various types of financial fraud and their economic implications, discussing main themes and types of white-collar crime. Longer summary

This book review explores 'Lying for Money' by Dan Davies, which examines various types of financial fraud and their implications for the broader economy. The review covers the book's main themes, including the idea that fraud is an equilibrium phenomenon, the importance of trust networks in facilitating fraud, and how complex systems are more vulnerable to exploitation. It discusses the four types of white-collar crime outlined in the book: long firm fraud, counterfeiting, control fraud, and market crimes. The review also highlights the book's insights on how frauds tend to grow over time and the challenges in preventing and prosecuting financial crimes. The reviewer adds their own analysis, particularly on the recent FTX cryptocurrency scandal, which is not covered in the book but fits well with its themes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the strange dynamics of the academic job market, questioning why colleges prefer new PhDs for tenure-track positions and proposing potential explanations for this system. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the peculiarities of the academic job market, building on Bret Devereaux's analysis. He notes the split between well-paid tenure-track positions and poorly-paid adjunct positions, and questions why colleges prefer hiring new PhDs over experienced adjuncts for tenure-track roles. Scott proposes that colleges want both teaching and prestigious research, leading to a two-tier system. He speculates on reasons for preferring inexperienced hires and hiring from outside institutions. The post concludes by questioning why colleges don't hire everyone at a low level and then promote the most successful, and why there isn't more competition between colleges for established star professors. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander grades his 2018 predictions for 2023 and makes new predictions for 2028, with a strong focus on AI developments. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews his predictions from 2018 for 2023, grading himself on accuracy across various domains including AI, world affairs, US culture and politics, economics, science/technology, and existential risks. He then offers new predictions for 2028, focusing heavily on AI developments and their potential impacts on society, economics, and politics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his predictions for 2022 on various topics, comments on predictions from other sources, and announces a prediction contest for readers. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a list of predictions for 2022 covering various topics including US politics, world events, economics, technology, COVID-19, personal life, and his blog. He assigns probabilities to each prediction. The post also includes predictions from Vox and Matt Yglesias, which Scott comments on and adjusts based on his own views. The post ends with an announcement of a prediction contest for readers, based on the same set of questions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates his 2021 predictions, analyzing his performance across various confidence levels and comparing his results to other forecasters and prediction markets. Longer summary

Scott Alexander grades his 2021 predictions, made at the beginning of the year. He lists 108 predictions on various topics including politics, economics, technology, COVID-19, community events, personal life, work, and his blog. The post details which predictions came true (in bold) and which didn't (in italics). Scott then analyzes his performance, breaking down the accuracy rates for different confidence levels. He compares his results to a graph of expected vs. actual accuracy, finding he was slightly underconfident overall. The post concludes with a comparison to other forecasters and prediction markets, showing Scott performed well but was outperformed by both Zvi and the markets. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews a book comparing international healthcare systems, finding it informative but lacking in explaining why some systems succeed while others fail. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Which Country Has The World's Best Health Care?' by Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, a book comparing healthcare systems across 11 countries. The book categorizes systems into five types, from fully socialized to mostly privatized. Emanuel reluctantly concludes that Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and Taiwan have the best systems. Scott finds the book informative but criticizes its organization and limited scope. He expresses confusion about why some systems work better than others, particularly regarding drug pricing and budget setting. The review highlights the complexity of healthcare economics and the difficulty in understanding why the US system performs poorly compared to seemingly similar systems in other countries. Shorter summary

A review of Peter Zeihan's 'The Accidental Superpower', which predicts global disorder and American preeminence based on geographic and demographic advantages. Longer summary

This review discusses Peter Zeihan's book 'The Accidental Superpower', which predicts global disorder following America's disengagement from the world. The book presents a model for power and wealth creation based on geography, technology, and demographics. Zeihan argues that America has significant advantages in these areas, which will allow it to thrive even as other nations struggle. The review examines Zeihan's analysis of the Bretton Woods system, his predictions for various countries, and potential criticisms of his thesis. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his annual predictions for 2021, covering various topics from politics to personal life, with assigned probabilities for each prediction. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents his annual predictions for the upcoming year, covering a wide range of topics including US politics, world events, economics, technology, COVID-19, community matters, personal life, work-related issues, and his blog. The post includes over 100 predictions with percentage probabilities assigned to each. Scott emphasizes that the purpose of these predictions is to calibrate his ability to assess his own knowledge and certainty, rather than to demonstrate expertise on the topics. Shorter summary

Henry George's 'Progress and Poverty' argues that private land ownership and rent cause persistent poverty, and proposes a land value tax as a solution. Longer summary

This review examines Henry George's book 'Progress and Poverty', which argues that poverty persists alongside economic progress due to private land ownership and rent-seeking. George proposes a land value tax as a solution to eliminate speculation, encourage efficient land use, and fund public goods. The review covers George's theories on wages, capital, rent, and criticisms of prevailing economic ideas like Malthusianism. Shorter summary

The review analyzes Robert Ellickson's 'Order Without Law', which argues that close-knit communities often develop welfare-maximizing social norms that supersede formal laws. Longer summary

This book review examines 'Order Without Law: How Neighbors Settle Disputes' by Robert Ellickson, which explores how social norms often supersede formal laws in close-knit communities. The review provides a detailed analysis of Ellickson's main hypothesis: that members of close-knit groups develop norms that maximize aggregate welfare in their everyday interactions. It discusses various case studies, including cattle ranchers in Shasta County and whalers, and critically examines the strengths and limitations of Ellickson's arguments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Nassim Taleb's 'Antifragile', which explores the concept of benefiting from disorder across various domains and critiques modern attempts to reduce volatility. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Nassim Taleb's book 'Antifragile', which introduces the concept of antifragility - things that gain from disorder and volatility. The book explores this concept through various domains including finance, evolution, exercise, and government policy. Taleb argues that many modern systems and approaches, in trying to reduce volatility, actually increase fragility to large shocks. The review discusses Taleb's critique of academia, his preference for practical knowledge over theory, and his views on the benefits of smaller, decentralized systems. Scott compares Taleb's ideas to other thinkers like James Scott and David Chapman, seeing 'Antifragile' as part of a broader intellectual counterculture questioning conventional approaches to knowledge and governance. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the Metaculus scoring rule controversy and the challenges of long-term prediction markets, discussing potential solutions and their limitations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses two main topics in this post: the controversy surrounding Metaculus' scoring rules and the challenges of long-term prediction markets. He explains the criticism that Metaculus' scoring system may incentivize quantity over quality in predictions, and presents the platform's defense. Scott then explores the difficulties of creating prediction markets for events far in the future, discussing potential solutions and their limitations. The post concludes with some short links to other prediction-related topics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a satirical list of fictional cryptocurrencies and the humorous reasons for their ban by the SEC. Longer summary

Scott Alexander humorously describes a list of fictional cryptocurrencies banned by the SEC, each with unique and often absurd features. He explains the concept behind each cryptocurrency, ranging from religious-themed coins to those based on communist ideals or vampire slaying. The post then provides comical reasons for why each cryptocurrency was banned, often highlighting potential societal issues or unintended consequences of their implementation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines prediction markets, focusing on Metaculus forecasts for AI development and its potential impacts. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews several prediction markets, focusing on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus. He discusses the challenges of using Polymarket and the potential of Kalshi as a regulated futures exchange. The bulk of the post analyzes Metaculus predictions on AI-related topics, including the timeline for AGI development, human-machine intelligence parity, economic impacts of AI, and specific AI achievements. Scott notes the wide range of predictions and the interesting ways prediction markets can quantify expert opinions on complex topics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines mental disorders through the lens of dynamical systems theory, exploring how this perspective complements and contrasts with taxometric approaches. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of mental disorders as dynamical systems with attractor states, contrasting this with the taxometric approach. He uses examples like Alice's health insurance situation and Bob's depression to illustrate how complex systems can have stable states that attract nearby unstable situations. The post discusses how this perspective can help understand the nature of depression and other mental disorders, showing how they can be both dimensional and categorical. Scott also draws parallels between the complexity of mental disorders and the global economy, emphasizing the intricate interconnections and the difficulty of predicting outcomes or effective interventions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander maintains a list of significant mistakes in his blog posts, providing corrections and updates in reverse chronological order. Longer summary

Scott Alexander maintains a list of significant mistakes he has made in his blog posts, providing corrections and updates. He acknowledges errors in data interpretation, misunderstandings of studies, incorrect predictions, and instances where he changed his mind based on new evidence or reader feedback. The list is presented in reverse chronological order and covers a wide range of topics including medicine, economics, psychology, and social issues. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2020, covering topics from coronavirus to personal goals, each with an assigned probability. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents his annual list of predictions for the upcoming year (2020). The post includes 100 predictions on various topics including coronavirus, politics, economics, technology, his blog Slate Star Codex, personal life, and professional life. Each prediction is assigned a probability percentage. The predictions cover a wide range of subjects from global events to personal goals, with some entries redacted for privacy reasons. Scott explains the rules for these predictions and how they will be scored at the end of the year. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides updates on coronavirus trends, discusses various pandemic-related topics, and analyzes different countries' responses and policy proposals. Longer summary

This blog post provides updates on various aspects of the coronavirus pandemic. It discusses the slowing growth rate of cases in many countries, the challenges of mail-in voting in the US, charity efforts, how different countries are responding to the crisis, economic analyses of lockdowns, some positive developments in the US response, and various other coronavirus-related topics. The post maintains a speculative and analytical tone, examining different perspectives on issues like immunity certificates, expert predictions, and controversies around ventilator donations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews and analyzes his 2019 predictions, finding he was generally well-calibrated but slightly underconfident across all confidence levels. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews his predictions for 2019, made at the beginning of the year. He lists all the predictions, marking which ones came true, which were false, and which were thrown out. The predictions cover various topics including US politics, economics and technology, world events, personal projects, and his personal life. Scott then analyzes his performance, showing that he was generally well-calibrated but slightly underconfident across all confidence levels. He attributes this underconfidence to trying to leave a cushion for unexpected events, which didn't materialize in 2019. Scott notes that his worst failures were underestimating Bitcoin and overestimating SpaceX's ability to launch their crew on schedule. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including strategies, mysteries, controversies, and global impacts. Longer summary

This blog post discusses various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the 'hammer and dance' strategy, smoking cessation, mysteries surrounding Japan's low case numbers, takeout food safety, ventilator numbers, the UK's policy reversal, density and infection rates, hydroxychloroquine controversy, concerns about developing countries, donation opportunities, cost-benefit analysis of lockdowns, US stimulus bill negotiations, and media coverage of the pandemic across the political spectrum. The post also includes short links to other coronavirus-related news and developments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his 118 predictions for 2019, covering politics, economics, technology, and personal matters, with assigned probability percentages for each prediction. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents his annual predictions for the upcoming year (2019). The post includes 118 predictions covering various topics such as US politics, economics, technology, world events, and personal matters. Each prediction is assigned a probability percentage. The predictions range from political outcomes (e.g., Trump's presidency, Democratic primaries) to economic indicators (e.g., Bitcoin prices, stock market performance) and personal goals. Many personal predictions are redacted to protect privacy. Scott explains the rules for these predictions and how they will be scored at the end of the year. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates his 2018 predictions, analyzing his accuracy and discussing factors that affected his performance. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews his predictions for 2018, made at the beginning of the year. He lists each prediction, marking those that came true, those that were false, and those he couldn't determine. Scott then analyzes his performance, presenting a calibration chart and discussing his accuracy at different confidence levels. He notes that he performed poorly on 50% predictions and 95% predictions. Scott attributes some of his inaccuracies to two unexpected events: the cryptocurrency crash and a personal breakup, which affected multiple correlated predictions. He concludes by mentioning he'll post 2019 predictions soon and invites readers to share their own predictions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines a paper suggesting scientific progress is slowing relative to researcher numbers, arguing this trend is expected and potentially beneficial. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a paper by Bloom, Jones, Reenen & Webb (2018) that suggests scientific progress is slowing down relative to the number of researchers. The paper shows that while progress in various fields (like transistor density, crop yields, and economic productivity) has remained constant or grown linearly, the number of researchers has increased exponentially. Scott argues that this constant progress despite exponential input growth should be our null hypothesis, as the alternative would lead to unrealistic scenarios like immortality or 50% annual GDP growth. He suggests that the 'low-hanging fruit' explanation is most plausible, where easier discoveries are made first, making further progress increasingly difficult. Scott also cautions against trying to 'fix' this trend, noting potential dangers of accelerated scientific progress. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander defends rationalists against common criticisms, arguing that the movement is self-aware and actively tries to avoid past mistakes while striving for improvement. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to common criticisms of rationalists, economists, and psychiatrists. He argues that these criticisms are often outdated or based on misunderstandings, and that the fields in question are usually well aware of their own shortcomings. He focuses on the rationalist community, explaining that they actively try to avoid the mistakes of past movements, are aware of potential pitfalls, and strive for constant self-improvement and error minimization. Scott emphasizes that while the rationalist movement is likely still making mistakes, they are new ones rather than the obvious errors that critics often assume. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents 105 predictions for 2017 on topics ranging from world events to personal life, each with an assigned probability. Longer summary

Scott Alexander makes 105 predictions for 2017 on various topics including world events, European politics, economics, the Trump administration, online communities, his work, and personal life. The predictions cover a wide range of subjects from geopolitical events to personal milestones, each assigned a probability. The post is structured as a numbered list, with predictions grouped into categories such as 'World Events', 'Europe', 'Economics', 'Trump Administration', 'Communities', 'Work', and 'Personal'. Shorter summary