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2 posts
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debate (89) prediction markets (88) AI capabilities (22) AI progress (15) pattern recognition (7) AI art (6) AI criticism (4) compositionality (2)

Now I Really Won That AI Bet

Scott Alexander shows how he won his 2022 bet about AI image generation capabilities, tracking the progress from early failures to complete success in 2025, using this to argue against AI skeptics.

acx
Jul 8, 2025 3,168 words 475 likes 464 comments Listen · 16 min Read Read
AI (112) AI progress (15) betting (7) Gary Marcus (5) compositionality (2)

I Won My Three Year AI Progress Bet In Three Months

Scott Alexander won his three-year bet on AI progress in image generation compositionality within three months, demonstrating unexpectedly rapid AI advancement.

acx
Sep 12, 2022 1,502 words 159 likes 302 comments Listen · 13 min Read Read
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