Scott Alexander summarizes a debate between Yudkowsky and Christiano on whether AI progress will be gradual or sudden, exploring their key arguments and implications. Longer summary

This post summarizes a debate between Eliezer Yudkowsky and Paul Christiano on AI takeoff speeds. Christiano argues for a gradual takeoff where AI capabilities increase smoothly, while Yudkowsky predicts a sudden, discontinuous jump to superintelligence. The post explores their key arguments, including historical analogies, the nature of intelligence and recursive self-improvement, and how to measure AI progress. It concludes that while forecasters slightly favor Christiano's view, both scenarios present significant risks that are worth preparing for. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reveals that Lewis Carroll had conceived an idea similar to retroactive public goods funding in 1894, predating modern reinventions of the concept. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the concept of retroactive public goods funding, highlighting its multiple independent inventions under different names. He then reveals that Lewis Carroll, the author of 'Alice in Wonderland', had actually conceived a similar idea in his 1894 book 'Sylvie and Bruno'. The post includes a lengthy quote from Carroll's book describing a system where professors are examined and rewarded at the end of their careers, with tradesmen essentially funding their lives in the interim based on their potential future success. Scott points out how this system closely resembles modern concepts of retroactive public goods funding, with the main difference being the lack of financialization of the tradesmen's role. Shorter summary