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Scott debunks the "all exponentials become sigmoids" argument against AI risk by showing how forecasters consistently predict premature flattening of exponential trends, and argues that without deep understanding of AI dynamics, we should expect current AI progress to continue for roughly as long as it's already been going.
Scott Alexander examines a paper suggesting scientific progress is slowing relative to researcher numbers, arguing this trend is expected and potentially beneficial.
Scott Alexander rewrites classic fairy tales to illustrate transhumanist and rationalist concepts, each ending with a moral lesson related to these philosophies.
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