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3 posts
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The Sigmoids Won't Save You

Scott debunks the "all exponentials become sigmoids" argument against AI risk by showing how forecasters consistently predict premature flattening of exponential trends, and argues that without deep understanding of AI dynamics, we should expect current AI progress to continue for roughly as long as it's already been going.

acx
May 15, 2026 1,823 words 605 likes 480 comments Listen · 11 min Read Read

Is Science Slowing Down?

Scott Alexander examines a paper suggesting scientific progress is slowing relative to researcher numbers, arguing this trend is expected and potentially beneficial.

ssc
Oct 15, 2018 2,854 words 0 likes 30 comments Listen · 23 min Read Read

Transhumanist Fables

Scott Alexander rewrites classic fairy tales to illustrate transhumanist and rationalist concepts, each ending with a moral lesson related to these philosophies.

ssc
May 27, 2013 822 words 0 likes 28 comments Read Read
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