Scott Alexander offers follow-up insights on his guns and states analysis, addressing cultural factors, rape correlations, replication issues, and the complexity of gun control debates. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides follow-up thoughts on his previous post about guns and states. He discusses the interaction between cultural factors and gun ownership, explores correlations with rape rates, addresses replication issues, and critiques the gun control debate. He also mentions a meta-analysis by Gary Kleck that shows mixed results in guns-homicide correlation studies, emphasizing the importance of considering multiple studies rather than relying on a single one. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander debunks claims of effectiveness for Vancouver's 'Don't Be That Guy' anti-rape campaign, arguing that the reported crime reduction is likely due to normal statistical fluctuations rather than the campaign's impact. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques claims that the 'Don't Be That Guy' anti-rape campaign in Vancouver reduced sexual assault rates by 10%. He argues that such small changes in crime rates are common and don't necessarily indicate causation. He examines crime statistics from Vancouver and Edmonton, where the campaign originated, showing that similar fluctuations occur in various crime categories and across different years. Scott suggests that the apparent success of the campaign may be due to selective reporting and misinterpretation of statistics. He concludes by proposing that such campaigns might be more about signaling group membership than actually reducing crime. Shorter summary