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Jun 14, 2024
acx

Failure To Replicate Anti-Vaccine Poll

14 min • 2,061 words • 541 comments • 255 likes • podcast (13 min)
Scott Alexander attempts to replicate a poll claiming high rates of COVID vaccine deaths, finds much lower rates, and concludes such polls are unreliable due to bias. Longer summary
Scott Alexander attempts to replicate a poll claiming high rates of COVID vaccine-related deaths. He conducts his own survey and finds much lower rates, investigates possible reasons for the discrepancy, and concludes that such polls are unreliable due to political bias and statistical misunderstanding. Scott's survey shows 0.6% of respondents reporting a vaccine-related death in their family, compared to 8.5% in the original poll. He follows up with respondents who reported deaths, finding most cases involve elderly individuals, and the numbers are consistent with normal death rates. Shorter summary
May 30, 2024
acx

Contra Stone On EA

35 min • 5,412 words • 629 comments • 173 likes • podcast (32 min)
Scott Alexander critiques Lyman Stone's arguments against Effective Altruism, defending the movement's impact, methodology, and philosophical foundations. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to Lyman Stone's critique of Effective Altruism (EA), addressing several key arguments. He points out flaws in Stone's methodology for evaluating EA's impact on charitable giving, explains why EA focuses on diverse causes, defends the value of research and white-collar work in philanthropy, argues against the suggestion of extreme measures like terrorism, and discusses the philosophical foundations of caring about animal welfare. Scott also refutes the claim that EA ideas are unoriginal, highlighting the movement's unique aspects and its role as a social technology for promoting altruistic behavior. Shorter summary
May 23, 2024
acx

A Theoretical "Case Against Education"

18 min • 2,668 words • 1,369 comments • 383 likes • podcast (16 min)
Scott Alexander examines the effectiveness of education by analyzing knowledge retention, questioning the value of schooling beyond basic skills. Longer summary
Scott Alexander analyzes the effectiveness of education by examining how much factual knowledge people retain after schooling. He presents survey data showing that many adults, including college students, struggle to recall basic facts taught in school. The post explores why this might be, discussing the Ebbinghaus Forgetting Curve and spaced repetition. Scott proposes that people mainly remember information they encounter regularly in daily life, rather than what they learned in school. He concludes by questioning the usefulness of most schooling beyond basic skills, suggesting that cultural osmosis might be more effective for long-term knowledge retention. Shorter summary
Apr 19, 2024
acx

ACX Survey Results 2024

3 min • 423 words • 309 comments • 54 likes
Scott Alexander shares the results of the 2024 Astral Codex Ten survey, providing access to data and promising future analyses. Longer summary
Scott Alexander presents the results of the 2024 Astral Codex Ten survey, which had 5,981 participants. He provides links to the survey questions and results, and offers a downloadable dataset of responses from those who agreed to share their data publicly. Scott mentions that more detailed analyses will be published throughout the year, and invites readers to explore the data themselves. He also notes some measures taken to protect respondents' anonymity in the public dataset. Shorter summary
Mar 05, 2024
acx

Who Predicted 2023?

19 min • 2,893 words • 176 comments • 135 likes • podcast (17 min)
Scott Alexander analyzes the results of his 2023 forecasting contest, comparing various prediction methods and individual forecasters. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews the results of his 2023 annual forecasting contest, where participants predicted 50 questions about the upcoming year. He discusses the winners in both 'Blind Mode' (relying on personal knowledge) and 'Full Mode' (using aggregation algorithms). The post analyzes the performance of various forecasting methods, including individual forecasters, prediction markets, superforecasters, and aggregation techniques. Scott concludes that Metaculus, a forecasting platform, outperformed other methods, though some individual forecasters showed exceptional skill. He also examines which 2023 events were most surprising to forecasters and shares his main takeaways from the contest. Shorter summary
Jan 24, 2024
acx

Some Unintuitive Properties Of Polygenic Disorders

11 min • 1,571 words • 189 comments • 211 likes • podcast (9 min)
Scott Alexander uses simulations to explain why seemingly counterintuitive arguments against the genetic basis of schizophrenia are misleading. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses two seemingly counterintuitive arguments against the genetic basis of schizophrenia and explains why they're not as compelling as they might appear. He uses a simplified simulation to demonstrate how a highly heritable disorder can have low twin concordance rates and why eliminating affected individuals doesn't significantly reduce prevalence in the next generation. The post aims to clarify common misunderstandings about polygenic disorders and their inheritance patterns. Shorter summary
Oct 04, 2023
acx

How Are The Gay Younger Brothers Doing?

23 min • 3,424 words • 412 comments • 105 likes • podcast (22 min)
Scott Alexander examines recent studies on the Fraternal Birth Order Effect, finding evidence for a broader sibling birth order effect on homosexuality, though its exact nature and mechanism remain debated. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews recent studies on the Fraternal Birth Order Effect (FBOE), which suggests that men with more older brothers are more likely to be gay. He discusses three key studies: Frisch and Hviid's large-scale Danish study that found no clear FBOE, Vilsmeier et al.'s meta-analysis that questioned the statistical validity of previous FBOE claims, and Ablaza et al.'s extensive Dutch study that found a significant effect of older siblings (both brothers and sisters) on homosexuality. Scott concludes that while the FBOE hypothesis has been forced to evolve, the core idea that more older siblings increases the likelihood of homosexuality seems to stand, though the biological mechanism remains uncertain. Shorter summary
Aug 24, 2023
acx

Highlights From The Comments On Dating Preferences

40 min • 6,110 words • 386 comments • 95 likes • podcast (31 min)
Scott Alexander discusses reader comments on his post about dating preferences, covering various perspectives and addressing critiques of 'dating docs'. Longer summary
Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to comments on his previous post about dating preferences and 'dating docs'. He covers various perspectives, including those against dating docs, concerns about status signaling, insights from traditional cultures like Orthodox Judaism, research on dating preferences, experiences of people in unusual relationships, reactions to sample dating profiles, and areas where he changed his mind. Shorter summary
Aug 16, 2023
acx

In Defense Of Describable Dating Preferences

32 min • 4,926 words • 657 comments • 207 likes • podcast (24 min)
Scott Alexander argues that describable dating preferences are valuable, despite studies suggesting otherwise, by pointing out flaws in research and emphasizing real-world evidence. Longer summary
Scott Alexander critiques studies suggesting that describable preferences are useless in dating, arguing that common sense and empirical evidence show otherwise. He points out flaws in these studies, such as pre-sorted populations and brief evaluation periods, and suggests that while initial attraction might be random, similar interests and personalities likely lead to lasting relationships. Scott also discusses the value of dating profiles and 'dating docs' in conveying subjective preferences that can't be easily quantified in psychological exams. He concludes that for people who believe they can use describable preferences effectively, these tools remain valuable despite average trends in the general population. Shorter summary
Jun 08, 2023
acx

Attempts To Put Statistics In Context, Put Into Context

9 min • 1,355 words • 228 comments • 246 likes • podcast (8 min)
Scott Alexander explores the difficulties in contextualizing statistics, providing numerous examples to show how the same data can be presented to seem significant or trivial. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses the challenges of putting statistical findings into context, showing how different comparisons can make the same statistic seem either significant or trivial. He provides numerous examples of effect sizes and correlations from various fields to illustrate this point. The post aims to promote awareness of how statistics can be manipulated and encourages readers to be vigilant when interpreting contextual comparisons. Scott also acknowledges the limitations of using standardized effect sizes but argues for their utility in certain situations where more specific measures are difficult to comprehend. Shorter summary
Feb 06, 2023
acx

Crowds Are Wise (And One's A Crowd)

14 min • 2,128 words • 284 comments • 122 likes • podcast (16 min)
Scott Alexander investigates the 'wisdom of crowds' hypothesis using survey data, exploring its effectiveness and potential applications. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses the 'wisdom of crowds' hypothesis, which claims that the average of many guesses is better than a single guess. He tests this concept using data from his ACX Survey, focusing on a question about the distance between Moscow and Paris. The post explores how error rates change with crowd size, whether individuals can benefit from averaging multiple guesses, and compares his findings to a larger study by Van Dolder and Van Den Assem. Scott also ponders why wisdom of crowds isn't more widely used in decision-making and speculates on its potential applications and limitations. Shorter summary
Dec 27, 2022
acx

Selection Bias Is A Fact Of Life, Not An Excuse For Rejecting Internet Surveys

7 min • 963 words • 324 comments • 235 likes • podcast (7 min)
Scott Alexander argues that selection bias, while a concern, is not a valid reason to automatically reject amateur online surveys, as professional studies also face similar limitations. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses the issue of selection bias in amateur online surveys, arguing that it's not a valid reason to dismiss their results outright. He points out that professional scientific studies also suffer from selection bias, often using unrepresentative samples like psychology students. The post explains that while selection bias is problematic for polls or census-like studies aiming to determine population-wide statistics, it's less of an issue for correlation studies. Scott argues that the key is to consider the mechanism being studied and how it might generalize, rather than dismissing studies based solely on their sample selection method. Shorter summary
Apr 14, 2022
acx

Links For April

15 min • 2,270 words • 385 comments • 66 likes • podcast (17 min)
Scott Alexander shares 33 diverse links on topics ranging from history and science to technology and politics, offering brief summaries and commentary on each. Longer summary
This post is a collection of 33 diverse links and brief summaries on various topics, including history, science, technology, politics, and culture. Scott Alexander covers a wide range of subjects, from the history of garlic and magnets to AI-generated art, touching on topics like language models, Nobel laureates by state, ivermectin studies, nuclear weapons, and unusual legal cases. The post showcases interesting facts, recent studies, and thought-provoking ideas across multiple disciplines. Shorter summary
Jan 26, 2022
acx

Against That Poverty And Infant EEGs Study

14 min • 2,164 words • 433 comments • 150 likes • podcast (22 min)
Scott Alexander critiques a study claiming cash payments to poor mothers increased infant brain function, highlighting statistical and methodological issues that undermine its positive conclusions. Longer summary
Scott Alexander critiques a recent study claiming that cash payments to low-income mothers increased brain function in babies. He points out several issues with the study, including the loss of statistical significance after adjusting for multiple comparisons, potential artifacts in EEG data visualization, and deviations from pre-registered analysis plans. He also discusses the broader context of research on poverty and cognition, noting the difficulty in finding shared environmental effects and the tendency for studies in this field to be flawed or overhyped. Scott concludes that while the study doesn't prove cash grants don't affect children's EEGs, it essentially shows no effect and should not have been reported as an unqualified positive result. Shorter summary
Apr 06, 2021
acx

Two Unexpected Multiple Hypothesis Testing Problems

13 min • 1,954 words • 273 comments • 67 likes • podcast (15 min)
Scott Alexander examines two cases of multiple hypothesis testing problems in medical and social science research, highlighting the complexities in interpreting results. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses two cases of multiple hypothesis testing problems. The first involves a Vitamin D study for COVID-19 where a significant difference in blood pressure between groups complicates the interpretation of results. The second case relates to Scott's own study on ambidexterity and authoritarianism, where he questions the applicability of traditional multiple hypothesis testing corrections. He explores the complexities of interpreting multiple tests of the same hypothesis and considers Bayesian approaches, ultimately acknowledging the limits of his statistical knowledge on this seemingly simple question. Shorter summary
Apr 05, 2021
acx

2020 Predictions: Calibration Results

13 min • 1,888 words • 165 comments • 61 likes • podcast (17 min)
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2020 predictions, finding he was generally overconfident, and discusses the implications for his prediction-making process. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews his predictions for 2020, comparing them to actual outcomes. He analyzes his performance in different confidence levels, noting that he was consistently overconfident this year, particularly in the 50% and 95% categories. Scott attributes some of his errors to unexpected events like the prolonged COVID lockdown and the NYT situation. He reflects on whether this overconfidence in an unusually eventful year might balance out his slight underconfidence in more normal years. The post concludes with plans for future prediction exercises and a link to his ongoing prediction log. Shorter summary
Apr 01, 2021
acx

Ambidexterity And Cognitive Closure

14 min • 2,096 words • 257 comments • 71 likes • podcast (16 min)
Scott Alexander examines the relationship between handedness, authoritarianism, and cognitive flexibility, finding unexpected results that contradict a recent study. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses a study suggesting that consistently-handed individuals are more authoritarian and prejudiced than ambidextrous people. He attempts to replicate these findings using data from a previous SSC survey, but finds opposite results. Scott explores possible explanations for this discrepancy, including coding errors, the Lizardman Effect, and differences in study populations. He then speculates on the relationship between need for cognitive closure, ambidexterity, and various aspects of cognition and identity, including mental illness and intelligence. Shorter summary
Mar 23, 2021
acx

Book Review: Antifragile

36 min • 5,478 words • 488 comments • 141 likes • podcast (36 min)
Scott Alexander reviews Nassim Taleb's 'Antifragile', which explores the concept of benefiting from disorder across various domains and critiques modern attempts to reduce volatility. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews Nassim Taleb's book 'Antifragile', which introduces the concept of antifragility - things that gain from disorder and volatility. The book explores this concept through various domains including finance, evolution, exercise, and government policy. Taleb argues that many modern systems and approaches, in trying to reduce volatility, actually increase fragility to large shocks. The review discusses Taleb's critique of academia, his preference for practical knowledge over theory, and his views on the benefits of smaller, decentralized systems. Scott compares Taleb's ideas to other thinkers like James Scott and David Chapman, seeing 'Antifragile' as part of a broader intellectual counterculture questioning conventional approaches to knowledge and governance. Shorter summary
Mar 04, 2021
acx

Highlights From The Comments On March Links

18 min • 2,780 words • 175 comments • 55 likes • podcast (18 min)
Scott Alexander reviews and responds to reader comments on various topics from his March Links post, providing additional context and clarifications. Longer summary
Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to comments on his March Links post. Topics include privateering, hurricane data reliability, Harvard's budget accounting, Bernie Sanders' campaign, police reform studies, and political psychology research. He highlights expert opinions, clarifies misunderstandings, and adds context to various points raised in the original post. Shorter summary
Mar 01, 2021
acx

Mantic Monday: Scoring Rule Controversy

12 min • 1,745 words • 150 comments • 46 likes • podcast (13 min)
Scott Alexander examines the Metaculus scoring rule controversy and the challenges of long-term prediction markets, discussing potential solutions and their limitations. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses two main topics in this post: the controversy surrounding Metaculus' scoring rules and the challenges of long-term prediction markets. He explains the criticism that Metaculus' scoring system may incentivize quantity over quality in predictions, and presents the platform's defense. Scott then explores the difficulties of creating prediction markets for events far in the future, discussing potential solutions and their limitations. The post concludes with some short links to other prediction-related topics. Shorter summary
Feb 23, 2021
acx

Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions

15 min • 2,180 words • 180 comments • 63 likes • podcast (18 min)
Scott Alexander evaluates the accuracy of COVID-19 predictions made by himself and two others in April 2020, discussing the results and their implications for forecasting. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews the accuracy of COVID-19 predictions made in April 2020 by himself and two other forecasters, Zvi and Bucky. The post compares their predictions on 20 questions related to the pandemic, using a logarithmic scoring system. Scott discusses the results, noting that Zvi performed best, followed by Scott, then Bucky. He reflects on the value of such exercises for identifying biases and areas for improvement in forecasting. The post also includes updates on other prediction markets and forecasting platforms. Shorter summary
Feb 16, 2021
acx

COVID/Vitamin D: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

20 min • 2,989 words • 277 comments • 162 likes • podcast (18 min)
Scott Alexander critically evaluates the evidence for Vitamin D's role in COVID-19 prevention and treatment, ultimately leaning towards skepticism while acknowledging the low risk of supplementation. Longer summary
Scott Alexander examines the evidence for and against Vitamin D's effectiveness in preventing or treating COVID-19. He reviews various studies, including observational data, randomized controlled trials, and Mendelian randomization studies. While some evidence suggests a potential link between Vitamin D levels and COVID-19 outcomes, Scott ultimately leans towards skepticism. He discusses possible confounding factors and methodological issues in some of the positive studies. Despite his skepticism, Scott acknowledges the low risk of Vitamin D supplementation and suggests it may still be beneficial for other reasons. Shorter summary
Feb 01, 2021
acx

Metaculus Monday

13 min • 1,886 words • 207 comments • 88 likes • podcast (13 min)
Scott Alexander introduces 'Metaculus Monday', a series focusing on prediction markets, and discusses several Metaculus predictions about COVID-19. Longer summary
Scott Alexander introduces 'Metaculus Monday', a new series focusing on prediction markets, particularly Metaculus. He explains the current state of prediction markets, their limitations due to regulatory issues, and why he's chosen to focus on Metaculus. The post then delves into several Metaculus predictions about COVID-19, including total US deaths by the end of 2021, vaccine availability, vaccination rates, and potential new variants. Scott offers his own thoughts on these predictions and highlights the potential of prediction markets for informing policy decisions. Shorter summary
Jan 28, 2021
acx

Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Taxometrics

31 min • 4,674 words • 253 comments • 251 likes • podcast (34 min)
Scott Alexander examines taxometrics in psychiatry, finding that most mental health conditions are dimensional rather than categorical, and discusses the implications for diagnosis and treatment. Longer summary
Scott Alexander explores the concept of taxometrics, which studies whether psychiatric conditions are categorical or dimensional. He explains the difference between categorical distinctions (like humans vs. rabbits) and dimensional variations (like height), and discusses how taxometric methods attempt to determine which psychiatric conditions fall into each category. The post then reviews recent meta-analyses suggesting that most psychiatric conditions are dimensional rather than categorical, contrary to some expectations. Scott reflects on the implications of this for psychiatric diagnosis and treatment, suggesting a move away from binary thinking about mental health conditions. Shorter summary
Jan 25, 2021
acx

Know Your Amphetamines

22 min • 3,333 words • 251 comments • 227 likes • podcast (24 min)
Scott Alexander examines the history, chemistry, and efficacy of various amphetamine-based ADHD medications, comparing their strengths and weaknesses. Longer summary
Scott Alexander explores the history and differences between various amphetamine-based ADHD medications. He traces the origins of Adderall to a 1950s diet pill, then compares it to other drugs like Dexedrine, Vyvanse, Evekeo, and Desoxyn (methamphetamine). The post discusses the chemical differences, patient preferences, and effectiveness of these medications, noting that pure d-amphetamine (Dexedrine) seems generally superior to the Adderall mixture. Scott also touches on the controversy surrounding methamphetamine use in ADHD treatment, explaining that the main differences between therapeutic use and abuse are dosage and administration method rather than inherent properties of the drug. Shorter summary