Scott demonstrates that US crime rates are at historic lows using multiple data sources, then debunks the theories that this is due to reporting bias or improved medical care, before briefly discussing possible explanations for the decline. Longer summary

Scott presents evidence that US crime rates, particularly murder rates, are at or near historic lows, then systematically debunks two common objections: that the decline is due to underreporting bias, and that it's an artifact of improved medical care saving would-be murder victims. He shows that multiple independent data sources (including victim surveys and consistently-reported crimes like car theft) confirm the decline, and that while medical care has improved, gun injuries have become more severe at roughly the same rate, canceling out the effect. The post concludes by listing various theories for why crime has declined and questioning why public perception doesn't match the data. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the relationship between gun ownership and homicide rates, finding a likely causal link but noting it's not the main factor in the US's high murder rate. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the relationship between gun ownership and homicide rates in the US, critiquing misleading statistics and conducting a more rigorous analysis. He finds that while there is likely a causal relationship between gun ownership and homicide rates, it's not the primary factor explaining the US's high murder rate compared to other developed countries. He tentatively concludes that gun control measures similar to Australia's might be beneficial, but emphasizes the need for further research. Shorter summary