A wide-ranging links post covering recent research, political developments, and interesting findings across various fields, with particular focus on psychology research, political polling, and academic developments. Longer summary

An extensive roundup of links covering various topics in science, politics, and culture. Scott covers recent research on discrimination and peer effects, discusses political developments like Brexit polling and DNC chair elections, highlights interesting academic papers on personality and therapy, and shares various curiosities like tracking a child's first words. The post also covers developments in AI, drug regulation, and campus activism. The tone is analytical and exploratory, often questioning conventional wisdom and examining evidence from multiple angles. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the declining effectiveness of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy, proposing that its core ideas have become part of popular culture, potentially explaining its decreased impact. Longer summary

The post explores the declining effectiveness of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) over time. Scott Alexander compares his experience with CBT to that described in a book by a prominent CBT therapist, noting a stark difference in patient responses. He then proposes a theory that CBT's core ideas have become part of popular culture, making the therapy less novel and potentially less effective. The post discusses how this 'CBT in the water supply' phenomenon might explain the therapy's decreasing impact, while also considering other factors like changes in study quality or patient populations. The author speculates on how this cultural absorption of CBT principles might affect its placebo effect and overall efficacy. Shorter summary