Scott Alexander examines the mixed effectiveness of public awareness campaigns, presenting examples of both failures and successes, and analyzing possible explanations for their varying outcomes. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the effectiveness of public awareness campaigns, presenting examples of both failures and successes. He analyzes various theories about why some campaigns work while others don't, but ultimately concludes that it's difficult to predict the success of future campaigns. The post discusses failures like DARE, Scared Straight, and diversity training, as well as successes like anti-smoking campaigns and seatbelt promotion. Scott suggests that campaigns inflicted on captive audiences may be more likely to be counterproductive, but acknowledges that this theory doesn't fully explain all outcomes. He ends by expressing skepticism about public awareness campaigns, partly due to the implications for society if they were consistently effective. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander debunks claims of effectiveness for Vancouver's 'Don't Be That Guy' anti-rape campaign, arguing that the reported crime reduction is likely due to normal statistical fluctuations rather than the campaign's impact. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques claims that the 'Don't Be That Guy' anti-rape campaign in Vancouver reduced sexual assault rates by 10%. He argues that such small changes in crime rates are common and don't necessarily indicate causation. He examines crime statistics from Vancouver and Edmonton, where the campaign originated, showing that similar fluctuations occur in various crime categories and across different years. Scott suggests that the apparent success of the campaign may be due to selective reporting and misinterpretation of statistics. He concludes by proposing that such campaigns might be more about signaling group membership than actually reducing crime. Shorter summary