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underdog effect (2)
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study critique (272)
book review (226)
AI (113)
economics (105)
effective altruism (105)
debate (93)
education (93)
creative writing (92)
forecasting (91)
politics (89)
prediction markets (89)
science (85)
AI safety (83)
media criticism (76)
neuroscience (76)
rationality (76)
psychiatry (74)
psychology (72)
mental health (69)
highlights from the comments (68)
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prediction (16) underdog effect (2) Cathedral (Moldbug) (2)

Prediction is very difficult, especially of the past

Scott Alexander creates a test using Pew Research data to gauge predictions about American values changes from 1987 to 2009, hypothesizing that people will underestimate their own political position's strength.

ssc
Sep 24, 2013 333 words 0 likes 137 comments Read Read Opened Opened
social psychology (15) media bias (11) political discourse (9) hostile media effect (2) underdog effect (2) bravery debates (2)

Against Bravery Debates

Scott Alexander criticizes 'bravery debates' as toxic and unproductive, explaining psychological factors that lead to their persistence and recommending against engaging in them.

ssc
May 18, 2013 2,138 words 0 likes 84 comments Listen · 15 min Read Read Opened Opened
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