Prediction is very difficult, especially of the past

There’s been some recent discussion here on political change, so I thought I’d give people an opportunity to put their money where their mouths are.

I gathered data from Pew Research, who ask a representative sample of Americans whether they agree or disagree with statements like “I am very patriotic”. They’ve been doing this every year from 1987 to 2009, so they have 22 years – about a generation – worth of data on value changes.

In a second, I’m going to link you to a test which will ask you three things. First, the percent of Americans whom you think agree with each statement today (for values of “today” equal to 2009). Second, the change you believe occurred since 1987. Third, your own political position.

(I’m also asking people to voluntarily add their names at the end, so that winners can be properly honored and people have an incentive to get it right)

My hypothesis – and I know it’s bad form to state a hypothesis to research subjects before an experiment – is that most people will underestimate the strength of their own political position due to a version of the underdog effect. I am especially interested in seeing Neoreactionaries take this test due to their belief in the power of the Cathedral.

Test is closed, answers/data to be posted soonPS: I promise I didn’t rig this test. I used the first values survey I could find and included all the questions except the boring ones or the repeats. I’d like to say I didn’t even peek at the answers, except that of course I did. Nevertheless, these are not trick questions.

PPS: I don’t have access to the original questions verbatim, so assume they might have used slightly different wording.

PPPS: Yes, you could easily Google the right answers. I’m trusting you not to do that.