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prediction (15) underdog effect (2) Cathedral (Moldbug) (2)

Prediction is very difficult, especially of the past

Scott Alexander creates a test using Pew Research data to gauge predictions about American values changes from 1987 to 2009, hypothesizing that people will underestimate their own political position's strength.

ssc
Sep 24, 2013 333 words 0 likes 137 comments Read Read
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