Scott travels to Medjugorje, Bosnia to investigate reports of sun miracles, witnesses one himself with his wife, and develops a naturalistic explanation involving afterimages and atmospheric conditions that explains both the Medjugorje and Fatima phenomena. Longer summary

Scott Alexander investigates the sun miracle at Medjugorje, Bosnia, where thousands of pilgrims report seeing the sun spin and change colors. He travels there with his wife, interviews locals, and witnesses a small-scale miracle himself. After analyzing the experience and comparing it to the famous Fatima miracle, he proposes a naturalistic explanation involving afterimages, eye damage, and specific cloud conditions. The post explores eyewitness accounts, the history of Marian apparitions at Medjugorje, and the optical physics behind the phenomenon, ultimately concluding that while impressive, the miracle can be explained through unusual but natural atmospheric conditions combined with prolonged sun-gazing. Shorter summary

Scott explores reader responses to his Fatima miracle post, finding the most promising explanation in Buddhist fire kasina meditation practices that produce similar visual phenomena, while remaining uncertain about how 70,000 untrained people could achieve advanced meditative states instantly. Longer summary

Scott discusses reader responses to his previous post about the Fatima sun miracle, exploring new theories and evidence. The most promising explanation connects the phenomenon to 'fire kasina' meditation, a Buddhist practice of staring at bright lights that produces similar visual effects including spinning, color changes, and complex imagery. He examines the parallel case of Iranians seeing Ayatollah Khomeini's face in the moon in 1978, analyzes various videos of modern sun miracles (concluding they're camera artifacts), interviews a Medjugorje witness, and engages with Ethan Muse's counterarguments about the miracle being an objective phenomenon. Scott also addresses philosophical questions about miracles and Bayesian reasoning, ultimately remaining uncertain but slightly less confused than before, with fire kasina providing the best but still imperfect explanation. Shorter summary