A review of 'How the War Was Won' by Phillips Payson O'Brien, which argues that Allied air and sea power, not land battles, were decisive in World War II. Longer summary

This book review discusses 'How the War Was Won' by Phillips Payson O'Brien, which presents a novel perspective on World War II. The book argues that Allied air and sea power, rather than land battles, were the decisive factors in winning the war. O'Brien focuses on production and logistics, showing how Allied efforts disrupted Axis capabilities to produce and transport military equipment. The review highlights key points such as the ineffectiveness of individual battles, the importance of non-operational losses, and the impact of oil shortages on Axis forces. It also touches on the morality of strategic bombing and offers some criticisms of the book's focus on personnel discussions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates predictions about the Russia-Ukraine war, analyzing the performance of prediction markets and individual pundits. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews various predictions about the Russia-Ukraine war, evaluating pundits and prediction markets on their accuracy regarding the invasion and Ukrainian resistance. He discusses the performance of Metaculus, Polymarket, Manifold Markets, and individual forecasters like Edward Luttwak, Anatoly Karlin, Richard Hanania, Dmitri Alperovich, Tyler Cowen, Samo Burja, and others. Scott notes that most failed predictions were based on political precommitments, while successful ones often aligned with biases that happened to match reality. He concludes that having a bias corresponding to the outcome is often more important than being smart when it comes to prediction success. Shorter summary