Scott Alexander creates a test using Pew Research data to gauge predictions about American values changes from 1987 to 2009, hypothesizing that people will underestimate their own political position's strength.
Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses a test he created using Pew Research data on American values from 1987 to 2009. The test asks participants to predict the percentage of Americans agreeing with certain statements in 2009, estimate the change since 1987, and state their own political position. Scott hypothesizes that most people will underestimate the strength of their own political position due to the underdog effect. He's particularly interested in Neoreactionaries' responses given their belief in the power of the Cathedral. Scott assures that the test isn't rigged and asks participants not to Google the answers.
Shorter summary