Scott Alexander analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, including the LK-99 superconductor hype, a forecasting tournament, and new prediction market concepts.
Longer summary
This post discusses several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. It begins with an analysis of the LK-99 superconductor prediction markets, suggesting they were overly optimistic due to media hype rather than expert opinion. The author then discusses the Salem/CSPI prediction market tournament, highlighting how the top performers used various strategies beyond just predictive accuracy. The post introduces the concept of prediction portfolios, which allow betting on broader trends rather than specific outcomes. It also mentions a new prediction market for flight delays called Wingman.WTF. Finally, the post reviews current political prediction markets and other forecasting-related news.
Shorter summary