Scott Alexander examines the relationship between gun ownership and homicide rates, finding a likely causal link but noting it's not the main factor in the US's high murder rate. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the relationship between gun ownership and homicide rates in the US, critiquing misleading statistics and conducting a more rigorous analysis. He finds that while there is likely a causal relationship between gun ownership and homicide rates, it's not the primary factor explaining the US's high murder rate compared to other developed countries. He tentatively concludes that gun control measures similar to Australia's might be beneficial, but emphasizes the need for further research. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the possibility of a 'General Factor of Correctness' and its implications for rationality and decision-making across various fields. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the concept of a 'General Factor of Correctness', inspired by Eliezer Yudkowsky's essay on the 'Correct Contrarian Cluster'. He explores whether people who are correct about one controversial topic are more likely to be correct about others, beyond what we'd expect from chance. The post delves into the challenges of identifying such a factor, including separating it from expert consensus agreement, IQ, or education level. Scott examines studies on calibration and prediction accuracy, noting intriguing correlations between calibration skills and certain beliefs. He concludes by emphasizing the importance of this concept to the rationalist project, suggesting that if such a 'correctness skill' exists, cultivating it could be valuable for improving decision-making across various domains. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links from November 2014 covering science, technology, politics, and culture, with Scott's commentary and analysis on each. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting stories and articles from around the web. The post covers a wide range of topics, from scientific discoveries like saltwater crops and hover technology, to social issues like online harassment statistics and Ethiopia's economic growth. Scott provides brief commentary and often humorous observations about each link, while maintaining his characteristic analytical approach to evaluating claims and studies. Shorter summary