Scott Alexander investigates why self-reported IQ scores in online surveys are implausibly high, identifying issues with conversion tools, reporting bias, and unreliable tests. Longer summary

Scott Alexander investigates why self-reported IQ scores in online surveys seem implausibly high. He analyzes data from two surveys (Less Wrong 2014 and Clearer Thinking 2023) and identifies three main issues: 1) A popular SAT to IQ conversion tool was inaccurate, inflating scores. 2) Only the smartest people tend to report their SAT scores, skewing the sample. 3) Self-reported IQ test scores are often inflated or based on unreliable tests. After accounting for these factors, he estimates the average IQ of the Clearer Thinking sample at 111 and the Less Wrong sample at 128, which he considers more plausible. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes results from a 2022 prediction contest, discussing top performers and methods for improving forecast accuracy. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the results of a 2022 prediction contest where 508 participants assigned probabilities to 71 yes-or-no questions about future events. The post discusses the performance of individual forecasters, aggregation methods, and prediction markets. It highlights the success of superforecasters, the wisdom of crowds, and prediction markets. The article also announces winners, discusses demographic factors in forecasting ability, and introduces a new contest for 2023, emphasizing the potential for improving forecasting accuracy through various methods. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines obscure pregnancy interventions that may improve child outcomes, rating them by evidence quality and potential impact. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews various obscure pregnancy interventions that could potentially improve child outcomes, particularly IQ. He rates them in tiers based on evidence strength and potential impact, with Tier 1 being most strongly supported. Key interventions discussed include embryo selection, choline supplementation, avoiding stress and certain substances, and optimizing birth timing. He emphasizes these are extreme measures not meant to induce guilt, and that standard pregnancy advice is still most important. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines why certain families produce multiple generations of high achievers, exploring genetic, environmental, and psychological factors. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the phenomenon of highly accomplished families, such as the Huxleys, Darwins, and Curies, who have produced multiple generations of notable scientists, artists, and leaders. He discusses potential explanations for this trend, including privilege, genetics, and unique family environments. The post delves into the role of assortative mating, large family sizes, and the correlation between different types of talents. It also touches on the concept of a 'Hero License' - the idea that coming from an accomplished family might instill the confidence to pursue ambitious goals. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses the birth of the first polygenically-screened baby and explores the current and potential future applications of this technology in IVF. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the birth of the first polygenically-screened baby, explaining the process of in vitro fertilization (IVF) and how polygenic screening works. He describes how this technology can be used to reduce the risk of genetic diseases and potentially select for other traits. The post covers the current capabilities of polygenic screening, its potential future applications, and some ethical considerations. Scott also mentions the first polygenically screened baby, named Aurea, born to a family with a history of breast cancer. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the paradoxical relationship between autism and intelligence, discussing genetic and environmental factors, and proposing explanatory models for the observed lower IQ in autistic individuals despite genetic links to higher intelligence. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the paradoxical relationship between autism and intelligence. While genetic studies show a link between autism risk genes and high IQ, autistic individuals generally have lower intelligence than neurotypical controls. The post discusses three main causes of autism: common 'familial' genes that increase IQ, rare 'de novo' mutations that are often detrimental, and non-genetic factors like obstetric complications. Scott examines various studies and proposes that even after adjusting for mutations and environmental factors, autism still seems to decrease IQ. He introduces a 'tower-vs-foundation' model to explain this phenomenon, where intelligence needs a strong foundation to support it, and an imbalance can lead to autism. The post concludes with a list of findings and their associated confidence levels. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes a surprising age-related trend in responses to a parentheses riddle on the SSC survey, exploring possible explanations for why younger respondents were more likely to answer correctly. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a parentheses riddle included in the SSC survey, which unexpectedly revealed a strong correlation between age and the likelihood of answering correctly. Younger respondents were more than twice as likely to choose the correct answer (B) compared to those in their 60s. Scott explores various hypotheses to explain this trend, including tech-savviness, cognitive decline, and survey-taking attitudes, but finds these explanations unsatisfactory. He speculates that age-related cognitive decline might affect parentheses-reading faculties specifically, independent of general intelligence. The post ends with an edit noting commenters' suggestion that younger people might have encountered the riddle before on social media. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents survey data showing a strong overrepresentation of oldest siblings among his blog readers, challenging the view that birth order effects are negligible. Longer summary

Scott Alexander challenges the mainstream view that birth order effects are negligible, presenting data from his blog survey that shows a strong tendency for oldest children to be overrepresented among his readers. He finds that in families of two children, 71.4% of respondents were the older sibling, with similar patterns in larger families. While he couldn't fully replicate previous studies' findings on IQ differences, he did find a significant difference in Openness to Experience. Scott suggests that birth order may have a stronger effect on intellectual curiosity than previously thought, which could explain the skewed ratios in certain communities. He calls for further research to understand the mechanisms behind this effect and its potential implications. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that while IQ is valuable for research, it's not reliable for predicting individual success and shouldn't be a major personal concern. Longer summary

Scott Alexander addresses the issue of people becoming overly concerned about their personal IQ scores. He explains that while IQ is a valuable research tool for understanding populations, it's not as useful or reliable for predicting individual outcomes. He points out that IQ tests often give inaccurate results for individuals, and even accurate IQ scores don't determine a person's potential for success. Alexander uses analogies like family wealth to illustrate how statistical correlations don't necessarily apply to individuals. He emphasizes that many factors beyond IQ contribute to success in various fields. The post aims to reassure readers who may be worried about their own IQ scores, while still maintaining the importance of IQ research for understanding broader societal trends. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores Laszlo Polgar's successful educational methods that produced chess prodigies, analyzing possible explanations and lamenting the unavailability of Polgar's book on his techniques. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the extraordinary success of Laszlo Polgar's educational methods, which produced three chess prodigy daughters. He examines possible explanations for their success, including genetic factors, practice, and potential unique educational techniques. Scott expresses frustration at being unable to find Polgar's book detailing his methods, and considers the implications of such effective educational techniques. He compares the Polgar sisters' education favorably to typical public schooling, questioning why such potentially revolutionary methods aren't more widely known or implemented. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses a study challenging the idea that childhood abuse lowers IQ, and explores its implications for understanding the effects of child abuse on various outcomes. Longer summary

This post discusses a study by Danese et al. challenging the assumption that childhood abuse lowers IQ. The study found that after adjusting for pre-existing factors, there was no significant difference in IQ between abused and non-abused children. Scott Alexander explores the implications of this study in the context of shared-environment-skeptical psychiatry and discusses other studies showing limited effects of child abuse on various outcomes. He notes that while these findings are interesting, they may understate the dangers of severe abuse due to sample size limitations. The post concludes by suggesting that child abuse likely causes PTSD-like symptoms but may not have effects drastically different from normal PTSD. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines his evolving view on scientific consensus, realizing it's more reliable and self-correcting than he previously thought. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on his changing perspective towards scientific consensus, sharing personal experiences where he initially believed he was defying consensus but later discovered that the scientific community was often ahead of or aligned with his views. He discusses examples from various fields including the replication crisis, nutrition science, social justice issues, and AI risk. Alexander concludes that scientific consensus, while not perfect, is remarkably effective and trustworthy, often self-correcting within a decade of new evidence emerging. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines a failed replication of a study claiming analytical thinking promotes religious disbelief, and discusses the broader implications for understanding the relationship between thinking styles and religious belief. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews a study by Gervais and Norenzayan (G&N) that claimed analytical thinking promotes religious disbelief, and its subsequent failed replication attempts. The original study consisted of five experiments, including priming participants with images or word tasks before assessing their religious beliefs. The Reproducibility Project's replication of two of these experiments failed to find the same effects. Scott discusses the implications of this failure, noting that even studies that seem well-designed can fail to replicate. He then examines a meta-analysis by Pennycook et al. that found a small but consistent correlation between analytical thinking and irreligiosity across multiple studies. Scott concludes by summarizing key takeaways about the relationship between analytical thinking, IQ, and religious belief, as well as lessons about the replicability of psychological studies. Shorter summary

A study on expert prediction of behavioral economics experiments finds that experts have only a slight advantage over non-experts, suggesting that a separate 'rationality' skill may be more important than specific expertise. Longer summary

This post discusses a study by DellaVigna & Pope on expert prediction of behavioral economics experiments. The study found that knowledgeable academics had only a slight advantage over random individuals in predicting experimental results. Prestigious academics did not outperform less prestigious ones, and field of expertise did not matter. The expert advantage was small and easily overwhelmed by wisdom of crowds effects. The author suggests that these results indicate that experts' expertise may not be helping them much in this context, and proposes that a separate 'rationality' skill, somewhat predicted by high IQ and scientific training but not identical to either, might explain the results. The post also discusses the implications of these findings for real-world issues like election predictions, noting important caveats about the nature of the predictive task in the study. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander refutes PZ Myers' race car analogy against genetic engineering for intelligence, showing that high IQ positively correlates with many beneficial traits. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques PZ Myers' argument against genetic engineering for intelligence, which uses a race car analogy to suggest optimizing for intelligence might trade off against other important traits. Scott shows that, contrary to this intuition, high IQ correlates positively with many desirable traits like longevity, height, and health. He explores possible explanations for this, including heterozygosity advantages, mutational load, and trade-offs with traits important in evolutionary history but less so now. Scott concludes that while caution is warranted, the race car argument is likely less of an impediment to genetic engineering than it might seem. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares and comments on highlighted passages from Garrett Jones' 'Hive Mind', covering various aspects of IQ research and its societal implications. Longer summary

This post is a collection of highlighted passages from Garrett Jones' book 'Hive Mind', along with Scott Alexander's commentary. The passages cover a wide range of topics related to IQ, including its measurement, cultural differences, effects on cooperation and voting behavior, and its relationship to national economic performance. Scott provides critical analysis and personal insights on these excerpts, often relating them to other research or raising questions about their implications. The post also touches on topics such as the Flynn effect, nutrition's impact on intelligence, and group dynamics in decision-making. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Hive Mind' by Garett Jones, which argues that national IQ matters more for economic success than individual IQ, while raising several criticisms of the book's methodology and conclusions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Garett Jones' book 'Hive Mind', which explores the hypothesis that a nation's average IQ matters more for its economic success than individual IQs. The book presents various studies and theories to support this idea, including how high-IQ individuals are better at cooperation and long-term thinking. Scott finds the book interesting but raises several criticisms, including questions about the direction of causality between IQ and development, and how the findings from small-scale experiments might apply to real-world nations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines how different statistical presentations of the same data in social science studies can lead to vastly different interpretations, potentially misleading readers. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the importance of understanding and interpreting statistical measures in social science studies, particularly focusing on correlation, percent variance explained, and visual representations of data. He examines two studies: one on IQ and state wealth, and another on wealth inheritance. Alexander highlights how different presentations of the same data can lead to vastly different interpretations, potentially misleading readers. He emphasizes the need for a good grasp of statistical concepts and realistic expectations when evaluating social science research, noting that correlations above 0.4 are rare in this field. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the possibility of a 'General Factor of Correctness' and its implications for rationality and decision-making across various fields. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the concept of a 'General Factor of Correctness', inspired by Eliezer Yudkowsky's essay on the 'Correct Contrarian Cluster'. He explores whether people who are correct about one controversial topic are more likely to be correct about others, beyond what we'd expect from chance. The post delves into the challenges of identifying such a factor, including separating it from expert consensus agreement, IQ, or education level. Scott examines studies on calibration and prediction accuracy, noting intriguing correlations between calibration skills and certain beliefs. He concludes by emphasizing the importance of this concept to the rationalist project, suggesting that if such a 'correctness skill' exists, cultivating it could be valuable for improving decision-making across various domains. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores how summary statistics can be misleading when describing relationships between variables, using examples of IQ's correlation with crime and income. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses two examples where summary statistics can be misleading. The first example involves the relationship between IQ and crime, where a large difference in average IQ between offenders and non-offenders coexists with a low correlation coefficient. The second example concerns the relationship between IQ and income, where substantial differences in average income across IQ deciles coexist with a relatively low correlation coefficient. In both cases, Scott emphasizes the importance of looking beyond summary statistics and considering the full distribution of data, potentially by examining scatter plots. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander uses NBA player heights as an analogy to discuss intelligence and IQ, advocating for a balanced view that acknowledges both innate talent and effort. Longer summary

Scott Alexander compares intelligence to height in basketball to demystify discussions about IQ. He analyzes NBA player height distribution, showing how extreme height gives a massive advantage. The post then draws parallels between height in basketball and intelligence, suggesting we should view intelligence similarly: as important but not solely determinative of success. Scott argues for a balanced view that acknowledges the role of innate talent while still valuing hard work and practice. He concludes by emphasizing the importance of cultivating high-level skills, including intelligence, to address future challenges. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the concept of innate ability and argues for its acceptance, while cautioning against tying self-worth to intellectual achievement. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of innate ability and its impact on self-worth, using personal anecdotes and philosophical arguments. He discusses how attributing success to hard work alone can be problematic, as it ignores inherent differences in aptitude. The post compares attitudes towards intelligence with those towards other traits like weight or poverty, noting a inconsistency in how society views these issues. Scott argues for accepting innate differences while still encouraging effort, and suggests that self-worth should not be tied to intellectual ability or achievement. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines evidence on marijuana legalization's effects on usage, health, and drug war costs, finding uncertainties too large for firm conclusions but suggesting traffic accidents may be the key factor. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the evidence around marijuana legalization, looking at its effects on usage rates, health impacts, and costs of the drug war. He finds that decriminalization and medical marijuana don't seem to increase youth usage much, but full legalization might increase adult use by 25-50%. Health effects are unclear but may include IQ declines and slightly increased psychosis risk. The costs of the drug war are significant in terms of arrests and spending, but relatively few people are in prison solely for marijuana. Scott attempts a utilitarian analysis comparing costs and benefits of legalization, but finds the uncertainties too large to draw firm conclusions. He suggests the most important factor may be how legalization affects traffic accidents. Shorter summary

Scott responds to authors of a Victorian intelligence paper, remaining skeptical of their findings and addressing critiques of his original post on IQ change speeds. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to the authors of a paper on Victorian intelligence who replied to his earlier critique. He remains skeptical of their findings, arguing that the Victorian sample was still more elite than modern comparisons, even when broken down by occupation. Scott also addresses a point from his original critique about the speed of IQ changes, acknowledging some validity to commenters' objections but explaining his reasoning. He concludes by suggesting that concerns about dysgenic effects on IQ may be overblown given the likely timeframe for genetic engineering or transfer to nonbiological life. Shorter summary