Scott Alexander defends using probabilities for hard-to-model events, arguing they aid clear communication and decision-making even in uncertain domains. Longer summary

Scott Alexander defends the use of non-frequentist probabilities for hard-to-model, non-repeating events. He argues that probabilities are linguistically convenient, don't necessarily describe one's level of information, and can be valuable when provided by expert forecasters. Scott counters claims that probabilities are used as a substitute for reasoning and addresses objections about applying probabilities to complex topics like AI. He emphasizes that probabilities are useful tools for clear communication and decision-making, even in uncertain domains. Shorter summary

The post explores recent advances in AI forecasting, discusses the concept of 'rationality engines', reviews a study on AI risk predictions, and provides updates on various prediction markets. Longer summary

This post discusses recent developments in AI-powered forecasting and prediction markets. It covers two academic teams' work on AI forecasting systems, comparing their performance to human forecasters. The post then discusses the potential for developing 'rationality engines' that can answer non-forecasting questions. It also reviews a study on superforecasters' predictions about AI risk, and provides updates on various prediction markets including political events, cryptocurrency, and global conflicts. The post concludes with short links to related articles and developments in the field of forecasting. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues against significantly updating beliefs based on single dramatic events, advocating for consistent policies based on pre-existing probability distributions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against dramatically updating one's beliefs based on single events, even if they are significant. He contends that a good Bayesian should have distributions for various events and only make small updates when they occur. The post covers several examples, including COVID-19 origin theories, 9/11, mass shootings, sexual harassment scandals, and crises in the effective altruism movement. Scott suggests that while dramatic events can be useful for coordination and activism, they shouldn't significantly alter our understanding of underlying probabilities. He advocates for predicting distributions beforehand and maintaining consistent policies rather than overreacting to individual incidents. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander recounts his journey to fatherhood, blending personal experiences with broader reflections on progress, rationality, and the future his newborn twins will face. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares his experience becoming a father to twins, intertwining personal anecdotes with philosophical reflections on parenthood, human progress, and the future. He starts with a humorous account of his fertility clinic visit, then describes the challenges of pregnancy and choosing names. The post explores the concept of children as 'surprisal-minimization engines' adapting to the world, and reflects on the advancements in child mortality and healthcare. Scott concludes by expressing both concern and hope for his children's future in a rapidly changing world, viewing them as 'ambassadors to the singularity'. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that describable dating preferences are valuable, despite studies suggesting otherwise, by pointing out flaws in research and emphasizing real-world evidence. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques studies suggesting that describable preferences are useless in dating, arguing that common sense and empirical evidence show otherwise. He points out flaws in these studies, such as pre-sorted populations and brief evaluation periods, and suggests that while initial attraction might be random, similar interests and personalities likely lead to lasting relationships. Scott also discusses the value of dating profiles and 'dating docs' in conveying subjective preferences that can't be easily quantified in psychological exams. He concludes that for people who believe they can use describable preferences effectively, these tools remain valuable despite average trends in the general population. Shorter summary

A review of 'The Laws of Trading' by Agustin Lebron, examining trading principles and their broader applications to decision-making and life. Longer summary

This book review analyzes 'The Laws of Trading' by Agustin Lebron, which explores trading principles and their applications to decision-making in various aspects of life. The reviewer discusses Lebron's insights on motivation, adverse selection, risk management, liquidity, edge, models, costs and capacity, possibility, alignment, technology, and adaptation, while drawing parallels to other fields and offering personal reflections. Shorter summary

Kieran Egan's educational theory proposes rebuilding school curricula around five kinds of understanding to create more engaging and effective learning experiences. Longer summary

This review explores Kieran Egan's educational theory outlined in his book 'The Educated Mind', which proposes a new approach to education based on five kinds of understanding: Somatic, Mythic, Romantic, Philosophic, and Ironic. Egan argues that schools fail because they ignore cognitive tools that have worked for centuries and instead try to balance three incompatible educational goals. He suggests rebuilding the curriculum around these cognitive tools to create more engaging and effective learning experiences. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander defends his thorough analysis of ivermectin studies, arguing that dismissing controversial topics without addressing evidence can inadvertently promote conspiracy theories. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to criticism from Chris Kavanagh about his lengthy analysis of ivermectin studies. He argues that dismissing controversial topics without addressing evidence can push people toward conspiracy theories. Scott shares his personal experience with Atlantis conspiracy theories as a teenager, emphasizing the importance of providing rational explanations rather than mockery. He critiques Kavanagh's apparent stance against examining evidence, likening it to religious fideism. Scott defends the value of practicing critical thinking and evidence evaluation, even on settled issues, to build skills for harder cases. He argues that conspiracy theorists use similar reasoning processes to everyone else, just with more biases, and that understanding these processes is crucial for effective communication and prevention of misinformation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the use of absurdity arguments, reflecting on his critique of Neom and offering strategies to balance absurdity heuristics with careful reasoning. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on his previous post mocking the Neom project, considering whether his use of the absurdity heuristic was justified. He explores the challenges of relying on absurdity arguments, acknowledging that everything ultimately bottoms out in such arguments. The post discusses when it's appropriate to use absurdity heuristics in communication and personal reasoning, and offers strategies for avoiding absurdity bias. These include calibration training, social epistemology, occasional deep dives into fact-checking, and examining why beliefs come to our attention. Scott concludes that while there's no perfect solution, these approaches can help balance the use of absurdity arguments with more rigorous thinking. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander experiments with DALL-E 2 to create stained glass window designs, exploring the AI's capabilities and limitations in interpreting complex prompts. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the challenges and quirks of using DALL-E 2, an AI art generator, to create stained glass window designs depicting the Virtues of Rationality. He details his attempts to generate images for different virtues, discussing the AI's strengths, limitations, and unexpected behaviors. The post analyzes how DALL-E interprets prompts, handles historical figures and concepts, and struggles with combining specific subjects and styles. Scott concludes that while DALL-E is capable of impressive work, it currently has difficulties with unusual requests and maintaining consistent styles across multiple images. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses the dangers of relying on 'Heuristics That Almost Always Work' through various examples, highlighting their limitations and potential consequences. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of 'Heuristics That Almost Always Work' through various examples, such as a security guard, doctor, futurist, skeptic, interviewer, queen, and weatherman. He argues that while these heuristics are correct 99.9% of the time, they provide no real value and could be replaced by a rock with a simple message. The post highlights the dangers of relying too heavily on such heuristics, including wasted resources on experts, false confidence, and the potential for catastrophic failures when the rare exceptions occur. Scott concludes by noting that those who dismiss rationality often rely on these heuristics themselves, and emphasizes the importance of being aware of the 0.1% of cases where the heuristics fail. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces his marriage and reflects on finding love, introducing 'micromarriages' as a motivational concept and exploring the rational and romantic aspects of marriage. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces his recent marriage and reflects on his journey to find a partner. He introduces the concept of 'micromarriages' as a motivational tool for those seeking relationships, shares personal anecdotes about meeting his wife, and discusses the significance of marriage contracts. Scott then delves into a more philosophical view of marriage, comparing it to Odysseus' encounter with the Sirens, emphasizing the balance between rational precautions and embracing the beauty of a deep connection. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'The Scout Mindset' by Julia Galef, a book on rationality that emphasizes seeking truth over defending beliefs and addresses both intellectual and emotional aspects of clear thinking. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Julia Galef's book 'The Scout Mindset', which aims to teach people how to think more clearly and rationally. The book distinguishes between 'soldier mindset' (defending one's beliefs) and 'scout mindset' (seeking truth). It provides techniques for adopting a scout mindset, including probabilistic thinking and thought experiments. The book also addresses the emotional challenges of changing one's mind and uses examples of admirable people who have done so to normalize the practice. Scott notes that the book goes beyond just teaching rationality techniques and touches on personal growth and becoming a better person. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses and responds to comments on his article about the effects of missing school, exploring various perspectives and reflecting on education's value and impact. Longer summary

This post discusses the comments on Scott Alexander's previous article about the effects of missing school on children's education. It covers various perspectives, including personal anecdotes of people who missed school and succeeded, concerns about the impact on disadvantaged children, debates about the value of schooling beyond test scores, and Scott's reflections on the reactions to his original post. The author also shares his thoughts on the nature of education, forced activities for children, and the ethical implications of arguing for weaker positions while holding stronger views. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues against the claim that 'rationality free from ideology doesn't exist', asserting that recognizing irrationality implies the existence of rationality. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques the argument that 'there's no such thing as rationality free from ideology'. He argues that if we can identify people who are especially irrational or biased (like Alex Jones), then we must also be able to recognize those who are more rational or objective. Scott contends that while perfect rationality might be impossible, this doesn't mean we can't strive for improvement. He suggests that claiming the impossibility of true rationality is actually arrogant, as it implies one has reached the limits of what's possible. The post emphasizes the importance of recognizing that some approaches can be more rational than others, and that we should learn from those who are better at rationality rather than dismissing the concept entirely. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of 'trapped priors' as a fundamental problem in rationality, explaining how it leads to persistent biases and suggesting potential solutions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of 'trapped priors' as a fundamental problem in rationality. He explains how the brain combines raw experience with context to produce perceptions, and how this process can lead to cognitive biases and phobias. The article discusses how trapped priors can make it difficult for people to update their beliefs, even in the face of contradictory evidence. Scott also examines how this concept applies to political biases and suggests potential ways to overcome trapped priors. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates the accuracy of COVID-19 predictions made by himself and two others in April 2020, discussing the results and their implications for forecasting. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the accuracy of COVID-19 predictions made in April 2020 by himself and two other forecasters, Zvi and Bucky. The post compares their predictions on 20 questions related to the pandemic, using a logarithmic scoring system. Scott discusses the results, noting that Zvi performed best, followed by Scott, then Bucky. He reflects on the value of such exercises for identifying biases and areas for improvement in forecasting. The post also includes updates on other prediction markets and forecasting platforms. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander introduces his new blog, Astral Codex Ten, centered around the concept of ṛta and exploring topics related to rationality, science, and human cognition. Longer summary

Scott Alexander introduces his new blog, Astral Codex Ten, explaining that it focuses on the concept of ṛta, an ancient Sanskrit word related to order, truth, and rationality. He describes the blog's main topics, including reasoning, science, psychiatry, medicine, ethics, genetics, AI, economics, and politics. Scott emphasizes the importance of understanding cognitive biases and how they influence our perceptions and judgments. He mentions his connections to the rationalist and effective altruist communities, as well as his background in psychiatry, and expresses his commitment to fostering an engaged readership. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews his intellectual progress in the 2010s across various fields, crediting his blog for accelerating learning. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on the intellectual progress he made in the 2010s, largely tracked through his blog posts. He discusses major updates in his understanding of topics like predictive coding theory, psychedelics, mental health, SSRIs, genetics, willpower, nutrition, x-risk, AI, scientific progress, cost disease, the replication crisis, placebo effect, ethics, politics, cultural evolution, social justice, game theory, and enlightenment. He notes that while some were major shifts in position, many represent 'deconfusion' - gaining a better map of the problem space. Scott credits his blog and reader interactions for accelerating his learning in the latter half of the decade. Shorter summary

The post explores how emotional learning creates hard-to-update mental models, drawing parallels between psychotherapy, psychedelics, and rationality techniques in overcoming these 'mental mountains'. Longer summary

This post discusses the book 'Unlocking The Emotional Brain' (UtEB) and its implications for understanding biases and mental processes. The author explores how emotional learning creates unconscious predictive models that guide behavior, and how these models can be difficult to update even in the face of contradictory evidence. The post draws parallels between UtEB's approach, psychedelic therapy, and rationality techniques, suggesting that they all aim to overcome mental 'mountains' that separate different areas of knowledge or belief. The author proposes that these mental separations might be a necessary feature of how our brains generalize from experiences, but can also lead to problems like cognitive biases and psychiatric symptoms. The post concludes by considering how this framework might help understand and address deeply held but irrational beliefs. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander offers a style guide to help writers avoid sounding overly robotic or scientific when discussing everyday topics, providing specific word replacements and usage guidelines. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides a style guide for writing about science and rationality without sounding like an 'evil robot'. He advises using everyday terms instead of scientific jargon when discussing everyday life, to avoid alienating readers. The post lists 11 specific recommendations, such as replacing 'IQ' with 'intelligence', 'humans' with 'people', and 'males/females' with 'men/women'. He also suggests avoiding terms like 'rational', 'optimal', and 'utility' in favor of more common alternatives. The guide aims to make writing more accessible and relatable, especially when discussing topics that might already seem nerdy or out-of-touch. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to various comments on his review of 'The Secret of Our Success', covering topics from language evolution to cultural practices and critiques of the book's claims. Longer summary

This post highlights comments on Scott Alexander's review of 'The Secret of Our Success'. It covers various topics including language creation, human strength compared to apes, cultural evolution, traditional practices, and the interplay between tradition and rationality. The post also touches on critiques of the book's claims, discussions on illegible preferences, and parallels with psychoanalytic concepts. It ends with perspectives on labor practices in Dubai and insights from StarCraft 2 strategies as metaphors for cultural evolution. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines how increased rational debate doesn't always lead to truth, using personal and societal examples, and suggests ways to carefully approach traditions and changes. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of asymmetric weapons, which work better for good guys than bad guys, and how sometimes this asymmetry can be reversed. He discusses how increased rational debate and resources don't always lead to truth, using examples like minimum wage debates and personal habits. The post then examines societal-level examples, such as debates about politicians' salaries and early 20th-century socialism. Scott concludes with suggestions on how to approach traditions and changes carefully, emphasizing the importance of understanding before discarding, tolerating unexplained behaviors, and gradually improving on obsolete traditions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores 'epistemic learned helplessness', arguing it's often a rational defense against persuasive but false ideas, especially in unfamiliar fields. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the concept of 'epistemic learned helplessness', where people refuse to believe arguments even when they seem logically sound. He argues that this is often a rational response to the fact that convincing arguments can be made for many false ideas, especially in fields where one lacks expertise. The post explores how this relates to beliefs in pseudohistory, fundamentalist religion, and fringe scientific theories. Scott suggests that while some ability to seriously consider new ideas is valuable, for most people, most of the time, a degree of epistemic learned helplessness is actually beneficial as a defense against bad arguments. He notes that the smartest and most rational people are often best at taking ideas seriously, but suggests this might be because they're capable of doing so without immediately falling for bad arguments. Shorter summary

Scott reviews 'The Black Swan' by Nassim Taleb, examining its key concepts and Taleb's unique perspective on probability and risk. Longer summary

Scott reviews Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book 'The Black Swan', which explores the impact of rare and unpredictable events. He discusses Taleb's key concepts like the ludic fallacy and Platonicity, compares the book to other works on rationality, and reflects on Taleb's unique style and perspective. Scott also examines Taleb's critique of 'nerds' and his emphasis on empiricism over theory, while noting some potential issues with an overly empirical approach. Shorter summary