Scott examines how the 5-HTTLPR gene was wrongly linked to depression for years, discussing the implications for psychiatric research and genetic testing products. Longer summary

This post discusses the history and eventual debunking of the 5-HTTLPR gene's supposed role in depression. Initially, numerous studies claimed to find links between 5-HTTLPR and various mental health conditions, interactions with stress, and even antidepressant efficacy. However, a recent large-scale study by Border et al. found no evidence for these claims, suggesting that hundreds of previous studies were likely false positives. The post explores the implications of this finding, including concerns about the reliability of psychiatric research, the tendency for studies to reinforce existing beliefs, and the questionable validity of pharmacogenomic testing products that rely on genes like 5-HTTLPR. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the possibility of a 'General Factor of Correctness' and its implications for rationality and decision-making across various fields. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the concept of a 'General Factor of Correctness', inspired by Eliezer Yudkowsky's essay on the 'Correct Contrarian Cluster'. He explores whether people who are correct about one controversial topic are more likely to be correct about others, beyond what we'd expect from chance. The post delves into the challenges of identifying such a factor, including separating it from expert consensus agreement, IQ, or education level. Scott examines studies on calibration and prediction accuracy, noting intriguing correlations between calibration skills and certain beliefs. He concludes by emphasizing the importance of this concept to the rationalist project, suggesting that if such a 'correctness skill' exists, cultivating it could be valuable for improving decision-making across various domains. Shorter summary