Scott Alexander explores various COVID-19 topics including lockdown effectiveness, infection rate variations, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations of pandemic response. Longer summary

This post covers various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including lockdown effectiveness, heterogeneity in infection rates across countries, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations. Scott discusses cell phone data showing limited impact of official lockdowns, explores reasons for varying infection/mortality rates between countries, and highlights the role of speaking/singing in virus transmission. He also examines coronavirus prediction markets, questions the long-term sustainability of lockdowns, and ponders how to quantify the severity of COVID-19 deaths compared to other causes. The post concludes with numerous short updates and links on coronavirus-related topics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes misleading media reports on drug testing welfare recipients, showing how flawed methods and misrepresented data led to false conclusions about drug use rates. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques media coverage of drug testing programs for welfare recipients in Tennessee and Florida. He points out that the widely reported extremely low drug use rates (0.12% in Tennessee) are due to flawed testing methods, not actual low drug use. The Tennessee program only used a written questionnaire, while Florida's program, which used urine tests, was misrepresented by not accounting for those who refused testing. Alexander argues that these misleading reports are worse than Brian Williams' helicopter story embellishment because they misinform on important policy issues and display arrogance in criticizing those who believe welfare recipients use drugs at higher rates. Shorter summary