How to avoid getting lost reading Scott Alexander and his 1500+ blog posts? This unaffiliated fan website lets you sort and search through the whole codex. Enjoy!

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Jun 14, 2024
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Failure To Replicate Anti-Vaccine Poll

16 min • 2,061 words • 541 comments • 255 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander attempts to replicate a poll claiming high rates of COVID vaccine deaths, finds much lower rates, and concludes such polls are unreliable due to bias. Longer summary
Scott Alexander attempts to replicate a poll claiming high rates of COVID vaccine-related deaths. He conducts his own survey and finds much lower rates, investigates possible reasons for the discrepancy, and concludes that such polls are unreliable due to political bias and statistical misunderstanding. Scott's survey shows 0.6% of respondents reporting a vaccine-related death in their family, compared to 8.5% in the original poll. He follows up with respondents who reported deaths, finding most cases involve elderly individuals, and the numbers are consistent with normal death rates. Shorter summary
Jan 16, 2024
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Against Learning From Dramatic Events

31 min • 3,906 words • 638 comments • 282 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander argues against significantly updating beliefs based on single dramatic events, advocating for consistent policies based on pre-existing probability distributions. Longer summary
Scott Alexander argues against dramatically updating one's beliefs based on single events, even if they are significant. He contends that a good Bayesian should have distributions for various events and only make small updates when they occur. The post covers several examples, including COVID-19 origin theories, 9/11, mass shootings, sexual harassment scandals, and crises in the effective altruism movement. Scott suggests that while dramatic events can be useful for coordination and activism, they shouldn't significantly alter our understanding of underlying probabilities. He advocates for predicting distributions beforehand and maintaining consistent policies rather than overreacting to individual incidents. Shorter summary
Feb 01, 2023
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Response To Alexandros Contra Me On Ivermectin

104 min • 13,427 words • 315 comments • 105 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander responds to critiques of his 2021 ivermectin analysis, acknowledging some errors but maintaining his conclusion that ivermectin likely doesn't work for COVID-19. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to Alexandros Marinos' critique of his 2021 post on ivermectin studies, addressing points about individual studies, meta-analysis methods, publication bias, and new evidence since 2021. He acknowledges some mistakes in his original analysis but maintains his overall conclusion that ivermectin is likely ineffective for COVID-19. Shorter summary
Apr 22, 2022
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Contra Hoffman On Vitamin D Dosing

30 min • 3,879 words • 160 comments • 84 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander critiques Ben Hoffman's arguments about Vitamin D dosing, maintaining that it is primarily a bone-related chemical with limited evidence for other benefits. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to Ben Hoffman's critique of his views on Vitamin D dosing. He argues that ancestral populations likely received much less Vitamin D from sunlight than Hoffman suggests, and that the doses used in most studies are appropriate. Scott reviews the literature on Vitamin D dosing, discusses various recommendations and debates within the medical community, and explains why he remains skeptical of claims about Vitamin D's non-skeletal benefits, including for COVID-19 treatment. Shorter summary
Feb 01, 2022
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Predictions For 2022

18 min • 2,236 words • 181 comments • 42 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander shares his predictions for 2022 on various topics, comments on predictions from other sources, and announces a prediction contest for readers. Longer summary
Scott Alexander presents a list of predictions for 2022 covering various topics including US politics, world events, economics, technology, COVID-19, personal life, and his blog. He assigns probabilities to each prediction. The post also includes predictions from Vox and Matt Yglesias, which Scott comments on and adjusts based on his own views. The post ends with an announcement of a prediction contest for readers, based on the same set of questions. Shorter summary
Jan 24, 2022
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Grading My 2021 Predictions

12 min • 1,551 words • 140 comments • 86 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2021 predictions, analyzing his performance across various confidence levels and comparing his results to other forecasters and prediction markets. Longer summary
Scott Alexander grades his 2021 predictions, made at the beginning of the year. He lists 108 predictions on various topics including politics, economics, technology, COVID-19, community events, personal life, work, and his blog. The post details which predictions came true (in bold) and which didn't (in italics). Scott then analyzes his performance, breaking down the accuracy rates for different confidence levels. He compares his results to a graph of expected vs. actual accuracy, finding he was slightly underconfident overall. The post concludes with a comparison to other forecasters and prediction markets, showing Scott performed well but was outperformed by both Zvi and the markets. Shorter summary
Jan 04, 2022
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Movie Review: Don't Look Up

27 min • 3,396 words • 1,142 comments • 277 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander reviews 'Don't Look Up', critiquing its contradictory narratives about trusting science and experts vs. outsiders. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews the movie 'Don't Look Up', focusing on its political implications rather than its message about existential risk. He summarizes the plot, then critiques the film's self-contradictory narratives about trusting experts vs. trusting outsiders. Scott argues that the movie unintentionally encourages conspiracy thinking while trying to promote 'trusting science'. He explains how people often hold contradictory political narratives, deploying whichever is convenient. The review concludes that the film succeeds in conveying emotions around existential risk debates but fails to coherently follow through on its intended message. Shorter summary
Dec 23, 2021
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Addendum To "No Evidence" Post

2 min • 206 words • 83 comments • 87 likes • podcast
Scott provides a real-world example of how the phrase 'no evidence' can be misused in science reporting, contrasting it with a prediction market's more nuanced response. Longer summary
This post is an addendum to Scott's previous article about the misuse of the phrase 'no evidence' in science communication. He provides a recent example from the Financial Times, which claimed there was 'no evidence' that the Omicron variant of COVID-19 was less deadly than Delta, based on a single study. Scott contrasts this with the Metaculus prediction market's response to the same study, showing how the market briefly dipped but quickly recovered and increased its prediction that Omicron was indeed less lethal. He presents this as a clear illustration of the difference between classical (frequentist) and Bayesian approaches to evidence and probability. Shorter summary
Dec 23, 2021
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Highlights From The Comments On Diseasonality

16 min • 1,980 words • 231 comments • 44 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to reader comments on his 'Diseasonality' article, exploring various aspects of disease seasonality across different viruses and geographical locations. Longer summary
This post discusses highlights from reader comments on the 'Diseasonality' article. It covers several key points: 1) A paper on SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics that explains seasonal patterns of coronaviruses, 2) Insights on how COVID-19 might become a seasonal endemic virus, 3) Discussions on the seasonality of other diseases like chickenpox and flu, 4) Comparisons between disease management and wildfire management, 5) The unique summer seasonality of polio, and 6) A simulation supporting the broad conditions for disease seasonality. The post synthesizes these reader contributions to further explore the concept of disease seasonality introduced in the original article. Shorter summary
Dec 22, 2021
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Addendum To Luvox Post

4 min • 432 words • 39 comments • 97 likes • podcast
Scott provides updates on efforts to get FDA approval for fluvoxamine as a COVID-19 treatment and reports on the early approval of Paxlovid. Longer summary
This post is an addendum to a previous article about Luvox and COVID-19 treatment. It updates readers on recent developments in the effort to get FDA approval for fluvoxamine (Luvox) as a COVID-19 treatment. Scott reports that Dr. Ed Mills and colleagues have found a way to submit an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) application to the FDA for fluvoxamine, despite the initial hurdle of not having a sponsoring drug company. The post also mentions the FDA's approval of Paxlovid, another COVID-19 drug, which happened earlier than expected according to prediction markets. Shorter summary
Dec 20, 2021
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Mantic Monday: Let Me Google That For You

20 min • 2,525 words • 125 comments • 41 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets, including Google's internal market and Metaculus' 'fortified essays', while discussing challenges and applications in various fields. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including Google's internal prediction market Gleangen, challenges in long-term predictions, conditional markets for policy decisions, and new weight loss drugs. He also covers Metaculus' 'fortified essays' concept, which combines expert analysis with crowd forecasts, and shares recent predictions on topics like COVID-19 hospitalizations and SAT requirements in college admissions. Shorter summary
Dec 17, 2021
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The Phrase "No Evidence" Is A Red Flag For Bad Science Communication

12 min • 1,476 words • 513 comments • 336 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander criticizes the misleading use of 'no evidence' in science communication and suggests more nuanced alternatives. Longer summary
The post critiques the use of the phrase 'no evidence' in science communication, arguing that it's misleading and erodes public trust. Scott Alexander shows how the phrase is used inconsistently to mean both 'plausible but not yet proven' and 'definitively false'. He explains that this stems from a misunderstanding of how real truth-seeking works, which should be Bayesian rather than based on a simplistic null hypothesis model. The post concludes by suggesting better ways for journalists to communicate scientific uncertainty, including being more specific about the state of evidence and engaging with the arguments of those who believe differently. Shorter summary
Dec 08, 2021
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Diseasonality

23 min • 2,983 words • 228 comments • 92 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander examines theories for disease seasonality, proposing a dynamic model where seasonal factors entrain waning immunity cycles. Longer summary
Scott Alexander explores the seasonality of diseases, particularly focusing on flu and COVID-19. He discusses various theories for why diseases peak in winter, including cold temperatures, low humidity, indoor crowding, and vitamin D deficiency. He finds these explanations unsatisfactory and proposes that ultraviolet light might play a role. Scott then considers a dynamic model where disease immunity wanes over time, and seasonal factors entrain this cycle to create annual epidemics. He suggests that COVID-19 is currently in a 'half-seasonal' phase and may become fully seasonal once it has infected most of the population and exhausted easy mutations. Shorter summary
Nov 29, 2021
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MM: Omicron Variant

5 min • 541 words • 197 comments • 88 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander analyzes prediction market forecasts about the Omicron COVID-19 variant, discussing its potential transmissibility, lethality, and prevalence. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses predictions about the Omicron variant of COVID-19 using data from prediction markets, particularly Metaculus. He examines forecasts on the variant's transmissibility (R0), lethality compared to Delta, and its expected prevalence in the US. The post highlights that Metaculus predicts Omicron to be more transmissible than Delta, with a 34% chance of being deadlier, and likely to become the dominant US variant by mid-March. Scott concludes with a humorous tweet about the rapid emergence of new variants. Shorter summary
Nov 23, 2021
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Highlights From The Comments On Ivermectin

45 min • 5,829 words • 534 comments • 62 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander responds to comments on his ivermectin article, discussing criticisms, the worms hypothesis, vaccine skepticism, and journalism quality. Longer summary
This post highlights comments on Scott Alexander's previous article about ivermectin as a potential COVID-19 treatment. Scott responds to criticisms from ivmmeta.com, discusses the worms hypothesis with various commenters, addresses concerns about the TOGETHER trial, and shares perspectives on vaccine skepticism and journalism quality. He also reflects on his own writing process compared to traditional journalism. Shorter summary
Nov 17, 2021
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Ivermectin: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

129 min • 16,723 words • 2,155 comments • 406 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander analyzes ivermectin studies for COVID-19, finding most positive results likely due to methodological flaws, fraud, or confounding by parasitic infections. Longer summary
Scott Alexander provides an in-depth analysis of ivermectin studies for COVID-19 treatment, examining methodological issues, potential fraud, and confounding factors. He concludes that ivermectin likely doesn't significantly reduce COVID mortality except potentially in areas with high parasitic worm infections. The post explores broader issues around scientific credibility, fraud detection, and public trust in science. Shorter summary
Nov 15, 2021
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Mantic Monday 11/15

23 min • 2,944 words • 217 comments • 35 likes • podcast
Scott examines new techniques in forecasting and prediction markets, including reciprocal scoring and iterated markets, while highlighting the accuracy of prediction markets compared to traditional media. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in forecasting and prediction markets. He covers a new paper on reciprocal scoring for long-term and counterfactual predictions, the performance of prediction markets vs. traditional media in calling election results, a proposal for iterated prediction markets to handle long-term forecasts, and updates on current prediction market probabilities for various events. He also notes the accuracy of past Metaculus predictions about Starlink availability and shares some short items on futurism and expert forecasting. Shorter summary
Sep 06, 2021
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Too Good To Check: A Play In Three Acts

20 min • 2,551 words • 865 comments • 325 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander analyzes the evolving narrative around a news story about ivermectin overdoses in Oklahoma hospitals, illustrating how cognitive biases and media dynamics can distort information. Longer summary
Scott Alexander examines a news story about ivermectin overdoses overwhelming Oklahoma hospitals, showing how it evolved from a local news report to international coverage, and was then seemingly debunked. He uses this as a case study in cognitive biases, media narratives, and the difficulty of determining truth in polarized situations. The post is structured in three parts, each revealing a new layer of complexity and uncertainty in the story. Scott emphasizes the importance of skepticism and checking sources, even (or especially) when a story confirms one's existing beliefs. Shorter summary
Sep 02, 2021
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Long COVID: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

59 min • 7,596 words • 261 comments • 97 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander examines the current research on Long COVID, analyzing its prevalence, symptoms, and potential impacts to assess personal risk and societal implications. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews the current research on Long COVID, examining its prevalence, symptoms, duration, and impact on different groups. He explores various studies, discusses potential mechanisms, and evaluates the psychosomatic argument. The post concludes with an assessment of personal risk and comparisons to other post-viral syndromes, emphasizing the uncertainties still surrounding Long COVID. Shorter summary
Aug 26, 2021
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Highlights From The Comments On Missing School

48 min • 6,219 words • 575 comments • 78 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander discusses and responds to comments on his article about the effects of missing school, exploring various perspectives and reflecting on education's value and impact. Longer summary
This post discusses the comments on Scott Alexander's previous article about the effects of missing school on children's education. It covers various perspectives, including personal anecdotes of people who missed school and succeeded, concerns about the impact on disadvantaged children, debates about the value of schooling beyond test scores, and Scott's reflections on the reactions to his original post. The author also shares his thoughts on the nature of education, forced activities for children, and the ethical implications of arguing for weaker positions while holding stronger views. Shorter summary
Aug 17, 2021
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Kids Can Recover From Missing Even Quite A Lot Of School

35 min • 4,494 words • 460 comments • 102 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander argues that missing a year or two of school is unlikely to have significant long-term effects on children's education, presenting evidence and critiquing contrary studies. Longer summary
Scott Alexander argues that missing a year or two of school due to COVID-19 or other reasons is unlikely to have significant long-term effects on children's education. He presents evidence from various studies and experiments, such as the Benezet experiment, unschooling, and different countries' school hours, to support his claim. Scott also critiques studies that show negative effects of school absences, arguing they are often correlational and fail to account for confounders. He acknowledges some potential non-academic benefits of schooling and provides his confidence levels on various predictions about the effects of missing school. Shorter summary
Aug 05, 2021
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Adumbrations Of Aducanumab

41 min • 5,324 words • 650 comments • 259 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander argues that the FDA is too strict, not too lax, and proposes unbundling FDA approval to allow for more nuanced drug regulation. Longer summary
Scott Alexander criticizes an Atlantic article that argues for stricter FDA standards following the approval of aducanumab, an Alzheimer's drug with questionable efficacy. He contends that the FDA is already too strict, citing examples like the delayed approval of COVID-19 tests and vaccines. Scott argues that the FDA's excessive caution has likely cost many lives. He proposes unbundling FDA approval into separate decisions about legality, insurance coverage, and the FDA's endorsement level. This would allow for more nuanced approvals and potentially reduce costly mistakes while still permitting access to promising treatments. Shorter summary
Jul 27, 2021
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Mantic Monday 7/26

17 min • 2,136 words • 128 comments • 45 likes • podcast
Scott reviews recent developments in prediction markets, including COVID-19 forecasts, the launch of Kalshi, and Metaculus' new hiring initiative. Longer summary
This post covers recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting. It reviews recent markets on PredictIt, Polymarket, and Metaculus, focusing on COVID-19 predictions, the launch of Kalshi (a new regulated prediction market), and Metaculus' hiring of 'Analytical Storytellers'. The author discusses the potential of prediction markets in providing clearer information about current events and future possibilities, and suggests some additional markets that could be helpful. The post also touches on demographic predictions about dependency ratios in various countries. Shorter summary
Jul 21, 2021
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Things I Learned Writing The Lockdown Post

29 min • 3,645 words • 584 comments • 123 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander shares insights gained from writing a comprehensive post on lockdown effectiveness, highlighting the complexities and challenges of analyzing such a multifaceted issue. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reflects on writing a comprehensive post about lockdown effectiveness during the COVID-19 pandemic. He discusses the challenges of addressing such a complex, multi-dimensional issue, including the difficulty of comparing different types of costs, the limitations of mathematical models, and the potential for bias in academic research. Scott also notes the varying pandemic experiences across different countries and regions, and the surprising involvement of rationalists and effective altruists in lockdown studies. He emphasizes the importance of considering alternative approaches beyond the typical pro/anti-lockdown debate, and the value of cross-disciplinary research in addressing complex issues. Shorter summary
Jul 07, 2021
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Lockdown Effectiveness: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

86 min • 11,106 words • 504 comments • 104 likes • podcast
Scott examines data on COVID-19 lockdown effectiveness, finding they likely reduced transmission but at significant costs, with targeted measures being most effective. Longer summary
Scott analyzes the effectiveness of COVID-19 lockdowns, examining data from Sweden, US states, and Europe. He finds that lockdowns likely reduced transmission rates, with targeted measures like school closures being more effective than stay-at-home orders. The analysis suggests lockdowns saved lives but at significant economic and emotional costs, with the cost-effectiveness varying between countries and time periods. Scott concludes that fast, well-targeted lockdowns may have been optimal, but emphasizes the high uncertainty in these estimates. Shorter summary