Scott analyzes whether AI forecasters will plateau near human levels or keep improving, arguing that even non-miraculous progress could yield 4-12 percentage point improvements in prediction market accuracy. Longer summary

Scott examines whether AI forecasters will plateau near current human performance or continue improving far beyond it. He analyzes a 2010 study by Daniel Reeves showing prediction markets only marginally outperformed simple statistical models, but argues this doesn't necessarily limit future progress. The post reframes those results to show they actually represent meaningful gains in difficult-to-predict domains like sports, then applies this reasoning to geopolitical forecasting. Using three different 'anchors' - comparing AI improvements to past technological gains, human-to-superhuman forecaster improvements, and chess AI progress - Scott estimates that maximally capable AI forecasters could improve prediction market accuracy by 4-12 percentage points over current levels, which he argues would be genuinely valuable even if not miraculous. Shorter summary

Scott shares his monthly collection of 56 interesting links and developments from July 2025, covering AI, politics, science, and culture, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This is a collection of 56 interesting links and news items from July 2025, covering topics from AI development to politics to scientific research. The post includes updates on OpenAI's status, developments in AI regulation, new medical treatments, cultural trends, and various scientific findings. Scott maintains his usual style of presenting these with brief commentary and occasional humor, while being careful to note that he hasn't independently verified all links. Some notable items include Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill", new AI safety developments, trends in social media usage, and various medical breakthroughs. Shorter summary

A collection of 41 interesting links and news items from April 2025, covering AI, politics, culture, and science, with Scott's commentary on each. Longer summary

This is a links roundup post featuring various interesting news, studies, and curiosities from April 2025. The post covers a wide range of topics including AI developments (particularly around OpenAI and truth-seeking AI), political updates (about Trump, immigration policy, and minimum wage effects), cultural items (like etymology of cowboy terms and medieval perception), and scientific findings. Scott maintains a light, sometimes humorous tone while sharing these diverse pieces of information, occasionally adding his own analysis or perspective on controversial topics. Shorter summary