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3 posts

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study critique (268) prediction markets (87) statistical analysis (53) Metaculus (34) AI capabilities (22) AI progress (15) AI forecasting (11) superforecasting (8) chess (5) Samotsvety Forecasting (2)

Does Forecasting Have Room At The Top?

Scott analyzes whether AI forecasters will plateau near human levels or keep improving, arguing that even non-miraculous progress could yield 4-12 percentage point improvements in prediction market accuracy.

acx

Aug 3, 2026 3,865 words 183 likes 171 comments Listen · 24 min Read Read

study critique (268) AI (112) politics (89) science (85) links (62) healthcare (56) social media (42) OpenAI (30) Trump (22)

Links For July 2025

Scott shares his monthly collection of 56 interesting links and developments from July 2025, covering AI, politics, science, and culture, with brief commentary on each.

acx

Jul 1, 2025 4,200 words 210 likes 581 comments Listen · 32 min Read Read

politics (89) links (62) medieval history (11) minimum wage (10) study analysis (9) immigration policy (5) cultural history (2)

Links For April 2025

A collection of 41 interesting links and news items from April 2025, covering AI, politics, culture, and science, with Scott's commentary on each.

acx

Apr 22, 2025 3,899 words 220 likes 1,017 comments Listen · 26 min Read Read

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