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Nov 07, 2024
acx

Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced

22 min • 2,985 words • Comments pending
Scott Alexander praises Polymarket's election success but argues their Trump odds were mispriced, explaining why Trump's win doesn't significantly validate their numbers over other forecasters. Longer summary
Scott Alexander congratulates Polymarket for their success during the recent election, but argues that their Trump shares were mispriced by about ten cents. He uses Bayes' Theorem to explain why Trump's victory doesn't significantly vindicate Polymarket's numbers. Scott compares the situation to non-money forecasters like Metaculus versus real-money markets like Polymarket, explaining why he initially trusted the former more. He discusses the impact of a large bettor named Theo on Polymarket's odds and addresses several objections to his argument. Scott concludes that while prediction markets are valuable, they can sometimes fail and require critical thinking. Shorter summary
Mar 05, 2024
acx

Who Predicted 2023?

21 min • 2,893 words • 176 comments • 135 likes • podcast (17 min)
Scott Alexander analyzes the results of his 2023 forecasting contest, comparing various prediction methods and individual forecasters. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews the results of his 2023 annual forecasting contest, where participants predicted 50 questions about the upcoming year. He discusses the winners in both 'Blind Mode' (relying on personal knowledge) and 'Full Mode' (using aggregation algorithms). The post analyzes the performance of various forecasting methods, including individual forecasters, prediction markets, superforecasters, and aggregation techniques. Scott concludes that Metaculus, a forecasting platform, outperformed other methods, though some individual forecasters showed exceptional skill. He also examines which 2023 events were most surprising to forecasters and shares his main takeaways from the contest. Shorter summary
Jan 30, 2024
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Mantic Monday 1/29/24

21 min • 2,857 words • 240 comments • 77 likes • podcast (19 min)
The post examines the performance of prediction markets in elections, current political forecasts, and various other prediction markets, while also discussing the challenges and potential of forecasting. Longer summary
This post discusses several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. It starts by examining a claim that prediction markets have an 'election problem', showing that real-money markets performed poorly in recent elections. The author then analyzes current polls and prediction markets for the 2024 US presidential election, noting discrepancies between different platforms. The post also explores a forecasting experiment on AI futures, and reviews several other prediction markets on current events. Finally, it includes short links to other forecasting-related news and reflections. Shorter summary
Dec 05, 2023
acx

Mantic Monday 12/4/23

34 min • 4,722 words • 289 comments • 68 likes • podcast (29 min)
The post discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including challenges in market design, updates to forecasting platforms, and current market predictions on various topics. Longer summary
This post covers several topics in prediction markets and forecasting. It starts by discussing the challenges of designing prediction markets for 'why' questions, using the OpenAI situation as an example. It then reviews the progress of Manifold's dating site, Manifold.love, after one month. The post also covers Metaculus' recent platform updates, including new scoring systems and leaderboards. Finally, it analyzes various current prediction markets, including geopolitical events, elections, and the TIME Person of the Year. Shorter summary
Jul 20, 2023
acx

The Extinction Tournament

30 min • 4,172 words • 519 comments • 138 likes • podcast (28 min)
Scott Alexander analyzes the surprisingly low existential risk estimates from a recent forecasting tournament, particularly for AI risk, and explains why he only partially updates his own higher estimates. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT), which aimed to estimate risks of global catastrophes using experts and superforecasters. The results showed unexpectedly low probabilities for existential risks, particularly for AI. Scott examines possible reasons for these results, including incentive structures, participant expertise, and timing of the study. He ultimately decides to partially update his own estimates, but not fully to the level suggested by the tournament, explaining his reasoning for maintaining some disagreement with the experts. Shorter summary
Apr 25, 2023
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Mantic Monday 4/24/23

15 min • 1,967 words • 138 comments • 61 likes • podcast (13 min)
The post explores AI forecasting capabilities, compares prediction market performances, and provides updates on various ongoing predictions in technology and politics. Longer summary
This post discusses recent developments in AI forecasting and prediction markets. It covers a study testing GPT-2's ability to predict past events, reports on Metaculus' accuracy compared to low-information priors and Manifold Markets, and updates on various prediction markets including those related to AI development, abortion medication, and Elon Musk's role at Twitter. The author also mentions new features in prediction platforms and research on forecasting methodologies. Shorter summary
Jan 31, 2023
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Mantic Monday 1/30/2023

35 min • 4,767 words • 141 comments • 56 likes • podcast (29 min)
Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including Metaculus' milestone, PredictIt's legal issues, and various prediction market topics. Longer summary
This Mantic Monday post covers several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. Scott discusses Metaculus reaching its one millionth prediction, PredictIt's legal battle with the CFTC, former Russian President Medvedev's outlandish 2023 predictions, conspiracy theory prediction markets, Scott's own 2022 prediction calibration results, updates on 'scandal markets', and highlights from various current prediction markets. He also shares some thoughts on the challenges and potential pitfalls of certain types of prediction markets. Shorter summary
Dec 16, 2022
acx

2023 Prediction Contest

4 min • 535 words • 175 comments • 89 likes • podcast (4 min)
Scott Alexander announces a formalized 2023 Prediction Contest with 50 questions, multiple modes of play, and cash prizes. Longer summary
Scott Alexander announces the 2023 Prediction Contest, a formalized version of his annual predictions. The contest includes 50 forecasting questions and 5 demographic questions. Participants can play in Blind Mode (limited research, no external sources) or Full Mode (unlimited research). There are multiple prizes, including $500 for winners in different categories. The contest aims to create a standard for comparing forecasters and forecasting sites, with plans to correlate personality traits with forecasting accuracy in a future ACX Survey. Shorter summary
Aug 16, 2022
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Mantic Monday 8/15/22

27 min • 3,693 words • 162 comments • 62 likes • podcast (31 min)
Scott Alexander examines the shutdown of PredictIt and its implications for the prediction market industry, while also highlighting new developments and forecasts in the field. Longer summary
This post discusses the recent shutdown of PredictIt, a prominent prediction market, by the CFTC. It explores potential reasons for the shutdown, including suspicions of lobbying by competitor Kalshi. The post also covers new developments in the prediction market space, including Hedgehog Markets allowing user-created markets, a forecasting tournament by the Salem Center and CSPI, and updates on various prediction markets and their forecasts on topics like China-US conflict, AI-generated music, and remote college education. Shorter summary
Jun 13, 2022
acx

Mantic Monday 6/13/22

14 min • 1,857 words • 154 comments • 50 likes • podcast (17 min)
Scott Alexander reviews recent predictions and forecasts on topics including monkeypox, the Ukraine war, AI development, and US politics. Longer summary
This Mantic Monday post covers several topics in prediction markets and forecasting, including monkeypox predictions, updates on the Ukraine-Russia war, AI development forecasts, Elon Musk's potential Twitter acquisition, and various political predictions. Scott discusses Metaculus predictions for monkeypox cases, analyzes forecasts for the Ukraine conflict, examines AI capability predictions in response to a bet between Elon Musk and Gary Marcus, and reviews predictions for US elections and other current events. The post also includes updates on prediction market platforms and recent articles about forecasting. Shorter summary
Mar 21, 2022
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Mantic Monday 3/21/22

17 min • 2,344 words • 103 comments • 29 likes • podcast (22 min)
Scott Alexander updates readers on Ukraine war predictions, Insight Prediction's challenges, ACX 2022 Prediction Contest results, and various prediction market developments. Longer summary
Scott Alexander provides an update on prediction markets related to the Ukraine war, discusses the situation with Insight Prediction (a prediction market platform), shares data from the ACX 2022 Prediction Contest, and gives brief updates on various prediction-related topics. The post covers changes in probabilities for key Ukraine war outcomes, the challenges faced by Insight Prediction due to the war, analysis of the ACX prediction contest data, and mentions of new prediction market platforms and AI-related predictions. Shorter summary
Mar 14, 2022
acx

Mantic Monday 3/14/22

18 min • 2,440 words • 203 comments • 54 likes • podcast (23 min)
Scott analyzes Ukraine prediction markets, nuclear war risk forecasts, and compares forecasters to experts, along with various updates on prediction platforms. Longer summary
This post discusses recent changes in Ukraine-related prediction markets, analyzes the seemingly monotonic decrease in probabilities of Russian success, explores nuclear war risk forecasts, and compares the performance of forecasters vs. domain experts. Scott also covers various short updates on prediction markets and forecasting platforms. Shorter summary
Feb 21, 2022
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Play Money And Reputation Systems

19 min • 2,552 words • 145 comments • 56 likes • podcast (19 min)
Scott analyzes play money and reputation systems in prediction markets, discussing their designs, challenges, and potential improvements. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses the design and effectiveness of play money and reputation systems in prediction markets, focusing on Metaculus and Manifold. He explores the trade-offs between absolute and relative accuracy, zero-sum and positive-sum scoring, and the challenges these systems face. Scott points out that reputation systems often fail to provide actual reputation benefits, and play money systems struggle with market inefficiencies due to limited incentives. He suggests potential improvements, such as offering interest-free loans for specific markets, to address these issues. Shorter summary
Feb 14, 2022
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Mantic Monday: Ukraine Cube Manifold

16 min • 2,133 words • 219 comments • 40 likes • podcast (21 min)
Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets for the Ukraine crisis, introduces Manifold Markets, and discusses recent Metaculus questions and forecasting initiatives. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses various prediction markets and forecasting platforms, focusing on the Ukraine crisis, a new prediction market called Manifold Markets, and recent questions on Metaculus. He analyzes the probabilities of a Russian invasion of Ukraine across different platforms, introduces the concept of an 'Alexander Cube' for ideal prediction markets, and highlights interesting markets on Manifold. The post also covers new Metaculus questions on intelligence enhancement and environmental issues, and mentions several forecasting-related contests and grants. Shorter summary
Dec 27, 2021
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Mantic Monday: Dogs In Wizard Hats

19 min • 2,567 words • 98 comments • 41 likes • podcast (24 min)
Scott discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including new platforms, features, and current market predictions on various topics. Longer summary
This Mantic Monday post covers several topics in the world of prediction markets. Scott reviews a YouTube explainer on prediction markets, introduces a new market called Futuur, discusses the innovative approach of Mantic Markets, highlights Metaculus' Public Figure Predictions feature, and provides updates on current market predictions for various events. He also shares some short notes on foot voting coordination efforts, a suggestion for using prediction markets in college debates, and Google's new prediction market team. Shorter summary
Dec 20, 2021
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Mantic Monday: Let Me Google That For You

19 min • 2,525 words • 125 comments • 41 likes • podcast (23 min)
Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets, including Google's internal market and Metaculus' 'fortified essays', while discussing challenges and applications in various fields. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including Google's internal prediction market Gleangen, challenges in long-term predictions, conditional markets for policy decisions, and new weight loss drugs. He also covers Metaculus' 'fortified essays' concept, which combines expert analysis with crowd forecasts, and shares recent predictions on topics like COVID-19 hospitalizations and SAT requirements in college admissions. Shorter summary
Nov 29, 2021
acx

MM: Omicron Variant

4 min • 541 words • 197 comments • 88 likes • podcast (6 min)
Scott Alexander analyzes prediction market forecasts about the Omicron COVID-19 variant, discussing its potential transmissibility, lethality, and prevalence. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses predictions about the Omicron variant of COVID-19 using data from prediction markets, particularly Metaculus. He examines forecasts on the variant's transmissibility (R0), lethality compared to Delta, and its expected prevalence in the US. The post highlights that Metaculus predicts Omicron to be more transmissible than Delta, with a 34% chance of being deadlier, and likely to become the dominant US variant by mid-March. Scott concludes with a humorous tweet about the rapid emergence of new variants. Shorter summary
Jul 27, 2021
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Mantic Monday 7/26

16 min • 2,136 words • 128 comments • 45 likes • podcast (21 min)
Scott reviews recent developments in prediction markets, including COVID-19 forecasts, the launch of Kalshi, and Metaculus' new hiring initiative. Longer summary
This post covers recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting. It reviews recent markets on PredictIt, Polymarket, and Metaculus, focusing on COVID-19 predictions, the launch of Kalshi (a new regulated prediction market), and Metaculus' hiring of 'Analytical Storytellers'. The author discusses the potential of prediction markets in providing clearer information about current events and future possibilities, and suggests some additional markets that could be helpful. The post also touches on demographic predictions about dependency ratios in various countries. Shorter summary
Jun 22, 2021
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Mantic Monday 6/21/21

11 min • 1,431 words • 164 comments • 51 likes • podcast (15 min)
Scott discusses various prediction markets and forecasting topics, including Metaculus predictions, Polymarket vs PredictIt, a study on forecasting accuracy, and the need for more precise inflation predictions from experts. Longer summary
This post covers various prediction markets and forecasting topics. It starts with Metaculus predictions on Puerto Rico statehood, Jeff Bezos' potential investment in anti-aging, crypto site defaults, and the population of Prospera. The author then discusses Polymarket, comparing its liquidity to PredictIt for the NYC mayoral race. The post also analyzes a study on forecasting accuracy from PredictionBook, showing that more experienced predictors perform better and that longer-term predictions are often more accurate. Finally, the author addresses the current debate on inflation predictions, calling for more precise and accountable forecasts from economists and pundits. Shorter summary
Jun 07, 2021
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Instead Of Pledging To Change The World, Pledge To Change Prediction Markets

7 min • 877 words • 206 comments • 114 likes • podcast (8 min)
Scott proposes politicians pledge to change prediction markets' forecasts instead of making direct outcome pledges, using Biden's emissions pledge as an example. Longer summary
Scott Alexander proposes that instead of making pledges about future outcomes, politicians should pledge to change prediction markets' forecasts about those outcomes. He uses Biden's pledge to halve US emissions by 2030 as an example, noting that such long-term pledges are often unfulfilled. Scott suggests that Biden could instead pledge to make Metaculus (or another prediction market) show a 51%+ chance of meeting the emissions target by the end of his term. This approach would require Biden to take concrete actions that convince forecasters of the likelihood of success. The post discusses potential objections to this idea, including the impact of future administrations, attempts to manipulate markets, and whether this might disrupt important political processes. Shorter summary
Mar 15, 2021
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Mantic Monday: Mantic Matt Y

17 min • 2,379 words • 201 comments • 109 likes • podcast (16 min)
Scott Alexander examines Matt Yglesias's public predictions and discusses the implications for evaluating pundits and the future of prediction-based journalism. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses Matt Yglesias's recent foray into making public predictions, a practice uncommon among pundits. He compares Yglesias's predictions to those on Metaculus and reflects on the broader implications for journalism and punditry. Scott explores the challenges of fairly evaluating pundits based on predictions, the artificiality of predetermined prediction sets, and the disconnect between prediction accuracy and valuable commentary. He suggests that pundits should make predictions directly related to their claims and proposes using prediction markets as a benchmark for pundit performance. Shorter summary
Mar 01, 2021
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Mantic Monday: Scoring Rule Controversy

13 min • 1,745 words • 150 comments • 46 likes • podcast (13 min)
Scott Alexander examines the Metaculus scoring rule controversy and the challenges of long-term prediction markets, discussing potential solutions and their limitations. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses two main topics in this post: the controversy surrounding Metaculus' scoring rules and the challenges of long-term prediction markets. He explains the criticism that Metaculus' scoring system may incentivize quantity over quality in predictions, and presents the platform's defense. Scott then explores the difficulties of creating prediction markets for events far in the future, discussing potential solutions and their limitations. The post concludes with some short links to other prediction-related topics. Shorter summary
Feb 23, 2021
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Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions

16 min • 2,180 words • 180 comments • 63 likes • podcast (18 min)
Scott Alexander evaluates the accuracy of COVID-19 predictions made by himself and two others in April 2020, discussing the results and their implications for forecasting. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews the accuracy of COVID-19 predictions made in April 2020 by himself and two other forecasters, Zvi and Bucky. The post compares their predictions on 20 questions related to the pandemic, using a logarithmic scoring system. Scott discusses the results, noting that Zvi performed best, followed by Scott, then Bucky. He reflects on the value of such exercises for identifying biases and areas for improvement in forecasting. The post also includes updates on other prediction markets and forecasting platforms. Shorter summary
Feb 08, 2021
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Metaculus Monday 2/8/21

16 min • 2,165 words • 104 comments • 62 likes • podcast (15 min)
Scott Alexander examines prediction markets, focusing on Metaculus forecasts for AI development and its potential impacts. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews several prediction markets, focusing on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus. He discusses the challenges of using Polymarket and the potential of Kalshi as a regulated futures exchange. The bulk of the post analyzes Metaculus predictions on AI-related topics, including the timeline for AGI development, human-machine intelligence parity, economic impacts of AI, and specific AI achievements. Scott notes the wide range of predictions and the interesting ways prediction markets can quantify expert opinions on complex topics. Shorter summary
Feb 01, 2021
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Metaculus Monday

14 min • 1,886 words • 207 comments • 88 likes • podcast (13 min)
Scott Alexander introduces 'Metaculus Monday', a series focusing on prediction markets, and discusses several Metaculus predictions about COVID-19. Longer summary
Scott Alexander introduces 'Metaculus Monday', a new series focusing on prediction markets, particularly Metaculus. He explains the current state of prediction markets, their limitations due to regulatory issues, and why he's chosen to focus on Metaculus. The post then delves into several Metaculus predictions about COVID-19, including total US deaths by the end of 2021, vaccine availability, vaccination rates, and potential new variants. Scott offers his own thoughts on these predictions and highlights the potential of prediction markets for informing policy decisions. Shorter summary